Fantasy Basketball Risers & Sleepers: Centers
Kelly Olynyk could be a sleeper pick at center in fantasy hoops this season.
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This is my first fantasy basketball article of the season, and I can’t tell you how excited I am to dive into it. Basketball is my true love, and I live by the moniker “Ball is Life.” For my first article of the season, we’ll dive into some undervalued centers. All of these players are outside the Top 50 in drafts, and this is the best position to find value because of how dominant these big men can be. Let’s start with a young stud in Detroit.
Risers
Jalen Duran averaged 13.8 points and 11.6 rebounds in his 2nd season with the Pistons.
Jalen Duren, DET (ADP: 58, C18)
Only a few 20-year-olds look like physically dominant players, but Duren is undoubtedly one of those guys. Despite the young age, the center averaged 13.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.8 blocks across 29.1 minutes in his sophomore season. That type of jump is incredible for a second-year player, and it looks even better since he shot 62% from the field and 79% from the free-throw line. Not many players this young have posted numbers like those, and he’s only scratching the surface of what he could become. It’s not like anyone in this Detroit rotation will keep him off the floor because they need to build around a young center stud like this. All we need is to get this youngster to 30-35 minutes, which shouldn’t be an issue with guys like Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed behind him.
Mark Williams, CHA (ADP: 76, C23)
Williams and Duren are very similar players, with both centers dominating for two of the worst teams in the NBA. This Hornets rotation is even worse than the Pistons, with Nick Richards being the only guy who could take away minutes from Williams. That shouldn’t be an issue, though, with Williams averaging 12.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocks on 65% shooting last year. The only issue is that he had an injury-shortened season, playing just 19 games. Williams is reportedly fully over the back issue that ailed him last season, and it’s scary to think that he posted numbers like those with a frail back. A 22-year-old with this sort of ability shouldn’t be falling to the middle rounds of drafts, and this is simply a case of fantasy managers being too weary of a tiny injury history.
Jonas Valanciunas, WAS (ADP: 86, C25)
It’s always been a matter of minutes when examining JV’s value, but a move to Washington is just what the doctor ordered. This is another center on a horrible team, with Valanciunas projected to start. It’s difficult to see any of these frontcourt players taking him off the floor because Marvin Bagley, Richaun Holmes and Patrick Baldwin have all been far from impressive. That should lock Valanciunas into a 25-minute role, and this guy was a borderline All-Star with that type of opportunity in the past. Over his last 11 seasons, JV has averaged 13.9 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.4 steals and 1.0 blocks across 26 minutes a night. He’s also shot 56% from the field and 79% from the free-throw line. You might be saying that he didn’t look the same in his time with the Pelicans last season, but the big man averaged 14.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 1.0 blocks in the 61 games he played at least 21 minutes. Good luck finding that from another player going just before pick 100.
Sleepers
Mitchell Robinson has battled injuries but should continue to be a big part of the Knicks’ lineup.
Jakob Poeltl, TOR (ADP: 110, C34)
Poeltl was in a muddled Raptors rotation at the beginning of last season, but getting rid of OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent has opened up some minutes for this rebuilding team. Kelly Olynyk was the only big man brought in to take some center minutes, but Poeltl should be locked into at least 25-30 minutes for this Toronto roster. He showed some glimpses of breaking out before an injury-riddled 2023-24 season, averaging 11.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.4 blocks over the last two years. He also shot 64% from the field while playing 27 minutes a night. That’s some elite stat-stuffing from your big man, and the injury-shortened season looks like the outlier. Poeltl played at least 66 games in six straight seasons before last year and posted the best numbers of his career in the final weeks before a finger injury ended his 2023-24 season. The big man averaged 13.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.9 blocks in his 12 games before damaging that finger, and a whole season of that would make Poeltl a top-50 player in most formats.
Kelly Olynyk, TOR (ADP: 125, C41)
We just talked about how rubbish this Raptors rotation looks, with Olynyk and Poeltl looking like the only decent big men out there. While we anticipate Olynyk coming off the bench, he should still play well over 20 minutes as the sixth man for this rebuilding team. He’s been a fantasy darling with that type of role throughout his career, averaging 11.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.3 3-pointers over the last four seasons. That’s an all-around stat line from a late-round draft pick, and he was even better once he was traded to Toronto. Olynyk closed the 2023-24 season by averaging 13.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.0 3s over the final 21 games. We don’t expect him to duplicate that, but getting that sort of production at the end of the draft is a godsend when most managers will take a punt play on some random role player.
Mitchell Robinson, NYK (ADP: 131, C42)
It’s hard to believe that a player like this is falling to the final rounds of drafts. Robinson was a top-50 pick just a few years ago, and he might be looking at the most extensive workload of his career. The Knicks had to part ways with Isaiah Hartenstein in the offseason, leaving Robinson with the starting center gig. This guy doesn’t do much offensively, but he’s still averaged 7.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.6 blocks on 69% shooting over the last four seasons. Those defensive numbers alone make him valuable, especially since Precious Achiuwa is the only other center on this roster. There’s some thought that Julius Randle might play small-ball five, but there’s just as good of a chance that Robinson plays 30 minutes a night because Tom Thibodeau is addicted to traditional centers. Robinson should also get a ton of rebounds for this elite defense and pick up tons of easy baskets on the other end with how many weapons this team has. Injuries are clearly what’s keeping fantasy managers at bay, but that’s far from a risk at pick 131.
