Fantasy Basketball: Should you panic over these slow starts?
Klay Thompson’s averages are down compared to past seasons, but he still can offer plenty of fantasy value.
All teams have played at least 10 games this season, so we’re starting to get a feel for how rosters and rotations are taking shape. In terms of fantasy basketball, some big names are off to slow starts. Let’s examine five of them and discuss whether or not it’s time to panic regarding their outlook for the rest of the season.
Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns
There are plenty of question marks regarding Ayton’s return to the Suns during the summer. He was a restricted free agent, and the Suns let him go out and field offers rather than locking him up immediately. He signed an offer sheet with the Pacers, which the Suns quickly matched. The problem is, he might not have wanted to return to the Suns. He certainly didn’t seem thrilled during some of his press conferences in training camp, at one point saying he hadn’t even spoken with head coach Monty Williams during the offseason.
It’s fair to ask if Ayton is motivated to be with the Suns. He’s off to a slow start, averaging only 14.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 0.6 blocks per game. After averaging at least 10.2 rebounds in his first four seasons in the league, he has eight or fewer rebounds in seven of the nine games he’s played this season. Don’t panic with Ayton just yet. He did have one game in which he played just eight minutes before getting injured, which has contributed to his low averages. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him average a double-double again.
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Thompson is finally healthy — a win in and of itself for the Warriors. He was vital during their championship run last season, but the downside is that he didn’t get much of an offseason to rest. He’s struggled out of the gate, providing only 15.1 points per game. That would be his lowest mark since his rookie season and snap a streak of six straight seasons in which he has averaged at least 20 points.
The main culprit for Thompson’s underwhelming numbers is his 36.0% shooting from the field. He’s also shooting just 32.6% from behind the arc. For his career, he has shot 45.6% from the field and 41.5% on 3-pointers. His efficiency should improve as the season moves along, but with all of the injuries that he’s suffered the last few years, he’s not likely to return to the same type of production that he did in his prime. If he catches fire and goes on a bit of a hot streak, it’s not a bad idea to try and trade him.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are thrilled to have Murray back after he missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Two seasons ago, he exploded for averages of 21.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.7 3-pointers per game while shooting 47.7% from the field and 86.9% from the charity stripe. That kind of well-rounded production made him a significant force in fantasy.
It should be no surprise that the Nuggets have been cautious with their young star early. He hasn’t played both games of a back-to-back set yet, and he’s logging just 28 minutes per game. During his breakout campaign, he averaged 36 minutes. It’s unlikely he will play that much regularly again, or at least until the Nuggets get closer to the playoffs. On the bright side, he has played at least 30 minutes in four of the last five games. During that span, he put up 19.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.8 3-pointers per game. There is nothing to panic about with Murray.
Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets
A player rarely begins his career with three straight seasons in which he averaged at least 15.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 7.7 assists and 1.4 steals, but that’s what Simmons did. He saw a slight decline during the 2020-21 campaign, but he’s fallen off the map since struggling in the playoffs that season. He didn’t play all last season, even after being dealt to the Nets.
A change of scenery has not helped Simmons. He looks lost offensively, averaging only 5.6 points on 5.4 shot attempts per game. He’s shooting 44.2% from the field and a dreadful 46.7% from the free-throw line. The Nets need him, especially with Kyrie Irving’s status with the team uncertain. The problem is, Simmons has not indicated that he can get back on track offensively. If you need immediate help for your fantasy squad, dropping Simmons isn’t a crazy idea.
Collin Sexton, Utah Jazz
All signs pointed to the Jazz undergoing a rebuild when they traded away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert over the summer. They acquired a ton of draft picks but also added an intriguing mix of veterans and young players. One of their most noteworthy additions figured to be Sexton, who was lined up for plenty of minutes and shot attempts.
The Jazz have gotten off to a surprisingly hot start with a 10-3 record. Another surprise has been Sexton filling a limited role off the bench. He’s only logging 22 minutes per game, leaving him with averages of 13.7 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.2 3-pointers. He is coming off a knee injury that cost him all of last season, so part of the reason for his reduced role could be the Jazz wanting to take a cautious approach with his return. However, with all of the success that the team is having, there is no reason to change his role anytime soon. It’s not time to fully panic and drop him yet, because if Utah’s record does start to go south, Sexton could play more in the second half when the Jazz trade away some of their depth for more draft picks. However, he should be anchored to fantasy benches right now.
