NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: 10/24

Keldon Johnson and James Harden have both proven to be high-value DFS picks through the first week of the season.

The opening week of the NBA season was terrific. We got off to a rough start on opening night, but we’ve been rolling since then. It’s always tough to get a read on how things will play out in the first game back, but it’s important to react as swiftly as possible. That’s what we’ve done because it’s easy to find value this early in the season. This is one of the only times you have an advantage over the pricing algorithms, and we hope these articles get you over the edge. With that in mind, let’s dive into this Monday card!

Injury Report

• Scottie Barnes (ankle) Questionable
• Jalen Suggs (ankle) OUT
• Myles Turner (ankle) OUT
• Dillon Brooks (thigh) Questionable
• Jaren Jackson Jr.(knee) OUT
• Robert Williams (knee) OUT

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Core Plays

James Harden (PG/SG – PHI): $9,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
People were panicking about Harden last season, but it looks like The Beard is back to his MVP ways. The former MVP is averaging 26 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 9.3 assists through the first three outings. That elite stat-stuffing is what made him an $11K player in the past, and it’s clear these sites haven’t caught up with his resurgence. Facing Indiana is incredible, with the Pacers ranked 28th in defensive efficiency last year and 25th so far this season.

Keldon Johnson (SF/PF – SAS): $6,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
This San Antonio stack is the best stack on this slate. All of these guys are way too cheap, and KJ has proven to be their best player so far this year. The Olympian has at least 33 DraftKings points in all three games, en route to a 39-point average. He’s simply the best player on this roster, and it’ll guarantee him 15-20 shots and 35-40 minutes a night. We also don’t mind that Minnesota owns a 25th OPRK against opposing forwards.

Lauri Markkanen (PF/C – UTA): $6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
Markkanen and Johnson have skyrocketed up the DFS ranks because of their new-found roles. Much like Johnson, Markkanen has been asked to be the offensive focal point for a rebuilding team. That’s a godsend in DFS, with Lauri averaging a career-best 47 fantasy points per game. We don’t expect that to continue, but we do anticipate Lauri being an $8K player this time next month. Houston is also the best matchup in the NBA, and we’ll dive into that later on.

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Cash Game Considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $10,900 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
The Joker is the two-time reigning MVP, and he’s the safest selection on every slate. He scored at least 39 DK points in all but one game last season, posting an NBA-best 61-point average. That absurd form has carried over into this year, averaging 57 fantasy points per game. The Serbian center has pummelled Portland, averaging 18.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 9.0 assists in their three meetings last year.

Ja Morant (PG – MEM): $10,100 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Ja broke out last season with over 40 DK points per game, but it looks like he’s taking his game to another level. The All-Star is averaging over 51 DK points per game, dropping 73 fantasy points just last weekend. It’s easy to understand why he’s doing so much, taking over this offense in the absence of Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson. That monster role should be beneficial against Brooklyn, with the Nets ranked 27th in defensive ratings.

Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Dame was a $10K player throughout the last three years, and it’s hard to understand this recent price drop. The former All-Star is being asked to do even more since the C.J. McCollum trade, averaging 50 fantasy points per game. That’s the stud we’re used to seeing, and this Denver defense has no wing players to match up with Dame. That’s evident when you see that Lillard has at least 39 DK points in each of his last nine meetings with the Nuggets.

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GPP Targets

Desmond Bane (SG/SF – MEM): $6,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
We just discussed that Memphis is missing Brooks and JJJ, leaving Bane and Morant to run the offense. This bulky shooter already broke out last season, and we’re encouraged by his 34-point average through the opening week of this year. He’s done that damage despite some woeful shooting, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets hot. That makes him an immense value below $7K, especially since Brooklyn ranks bottom-three in total defense.

Jusuf Nurkic (C – POR): $6,400 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Why is Nurk still so cheap? This guy averaged nearly 40 fantasy points per game in the 50-plus games he played last season and has always proven to be a beast when healthy. That’s certainly the case now, with Jusuf averaging 33 fantasy points per game. Nikola Jokic is the best offensive player in the NBA, but he’s dreadful on the defensive end.

Nicolas Claxton (C – BKN): $5,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Claxton was stuck behind guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, and Paul Millsap last year, but this is Claxton’s center job now. He’s started both games for Brooklyn, combining for 75 DK points. He’s also got a double-double in both outings, and he should be a safe bet for that every night when you see his elite per-minute averages. Memphis is a quality matchup, too, owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing centers.

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Value Plays

Jordan Clarkson (PG/SG – UTA): $6,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
I never expected Clarkson to start ahead of Collin Sexton this year, but it has skyrocketed his fantasy value. JC has taken 36 combined shots over the last two games, averaging over 33 fantasy points per game. This microwave scorer has always proven to be dangerous when given this sort of role, and we have to assume Clarkson will be one of the primary playmakers for this rebuilt Utah offense. He should hound a defense like Houston, with the Rockets ranked second in pace and dead-last in total defense last year.

Devin Vassell (SG/SF – SAS): $5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
San Antonio appears to be in tank mode, but people still need to produce on this roster. Vassell is arguably the most gifted offensive player, scoring at least 35 DK points in back-to-back games. He’s also attempted at least 14 shots in all three fixtures and looks like a safe bet for 35-40 minutes a night. That role and production should earn him a $7K price tag, and it’s clear these sites are slow to react to the boosted role.

Tre Jones (PG – SAS): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
San Antonio is full of value. Jones is probably the best bargain of the bunch, taking over starting point guard duties since the departures of Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. If you look at Jones’s 11 starts last season, he averaged over 33 fantasy points per game. That’s on par with his 28-point average through the opening week, and it’s strange to see a starting point guard for a fast-paced San Antonio team in this price range. Facing Minnesota is the icing on the cake, though, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

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Advantageous Pricing

Fred VanVleet (PG/SG – TOR): $8,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel

Zach LaVine (SG – CHI): $8,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

Bennedict Mathurin (PG/SG – IND): $6,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

Jarred Vanderbilt (PF – MIN): $4,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Jamal Murray (PG/SG – DEN): $7,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Aaron Gordon (SF/PF – DEN): $7,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel

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