NBA Playoffs: What to expect in Celtics-Heat series
This year, the first round will see a rematch of the previous two Eastern Conference Finals. The first game is scheduled for Sunday in Boston.
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Following one of the most outstanding regular seasons in NBA history, the Boston Celtics are undeniably the top contender to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. Their major rivals – Milwaukee, New York, and Philadelphia – are bracketed differently and are either grappling with injuries or have a key player striving to make a comeback after an extended hiatus.
The Celtics’ first-round opponent has also been shorthanded. The Miami Heat were without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier on Friday, and while they managed to beat the Chicago Bulls by 21 points to earn the No. 8 seed, they aren’t expected to have Butler for this series.
Boston swept the three regular-season meetings, with its 143 points on just 96 possessions (149 per 100) on Jan. 25 being the most efficient offensive performance the Heat have allowed in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.
Series schedule
This is how you can watch the series between the Celtics and the Heat:
All times Eastern Standard Time
- Game 1: Heat vs. Celtics, Sunday, April 21 (1 p.m., ABC)
- Game 2: Heat vs. Celtics, Wednesday, April 24 (7 p.m., TNT)
- Game 3: Celtics vs. Heat, Saturday, April 27 (6 p.m., TNT)
- Game 4: Celtics vs. Heat, Monday, April 29 (TBD, TBD)
- Game 5: Heat vs. Celtics, Wednesday, May 1 (TBD, TBD)*
- Game 6: Celtics vs. Heat, Friday, May 3 (TBD, TBD)*
- Game 7: Heat vs. Celtics, Sunday, May 5 (TBD, TBD)*
* = If necessary
Top storyline
TCB. These teams have a history, with this being their fourth playoff meeting in the last five years. And we’ve learned that we should never dismiss the Heat, who beat the top two seeds in the East (including Boston) last year on their way to the Finals. If any Eastern Conference opponent can put some doubt in the Celtics’ heads, it’s this one.
First and foremost, this series highlights the Celtics’ capability to handle their affairs well. They were among the top two teams in both offense and defense, and they boasted the fifth-highest point difference in NBA history. They are in good health, and if they come anywhere near their top game, this series should be over quickly. They must hit the ground running from the beginning of Game 1 and maintain that momentum until they’ve accomplished their goal.
Keep your eyes on
Zone defense. For the second straight season, the Heat led the league in the percentage of defensive possessions (13.4%) on which they played zone, according to Synergy tracking. The Celtics’ offense ranked seventh with 1.12 points per possession against zone this season, though they didn’t see much of the Miami zone (16 total possessions) over the three regular-season meetings.
In last year’s conference finals, they witnessed a significant portion of it, only scoring a feeble 85 points over 112 zone possessions (0.76 per game) in the seven games. They should anticipate seeing more of this in the upcoming series, as the zone has the potential to hinder the Celtics’ drive-and-kick strategy, keep them from the paint, and force them into late-clock situations.
Naturally, the Celtics didn’t possess Kristaps Porzingis last year. There is no one else in the league who can shoot over a zone better than the 7-foot-2 big man, who is attempting to clinch a playoff series for the first time in his career.
1 more thing to watch for each team
For Boston: Bench play. We knew the Celtics had the best top six in the league. We didn’t know they would be at their best with Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard on the floor. Their aggregate bench NetRtg (point differential per 100 possessions) with reserves on the floor was plus-6.2, the best mark for any team in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.
Opponents in the playoffs will undoubtedly target Hauser and Pritchard. However, if they manage to maintain a strong defensive front, the Celtics can persist in ruling their time on the court, enlarging their leads even when their top players are taking a break.
For Miami: Secondary creation. The Heat probably won’t have Butler, but they will have Tyler Herro, who missed (almost all of) last year’s playoffs and led the way with 24 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in Miami’s Play-In victory over Chicago on Friday.
But they’ll need somebody else to create offense off the dribble in order to make this series interesting. That could be Rozier, who’s missed the last six games with neck spasms. It could be Caleb Martin, who was almost the MVP of the conference finals last year, averaging 19.3 points on 60% shooting over the seven games. It could be rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr., who’s averaged 18.5 points (on 50% shooting) and 5.5 assists over the last four. And they’ll probably need great series from at least two of those three guys.
1 key number to know
-8.3% – Jrue Holiday had a usage rate of just 16.1% this season, the lowest mark of his career and down from 24.4% in 2022-23. That (-8.3%) was the biggest drop, by a wide margin, among 209 players that played at least 1,000 minutes in each of the last two seasons. The two-time All-Star has embraced a smaller role in a stacked starting lineup with a new team, and it’s worked for both him and the Celtics.
Holiday had his most efficient scoring season of his 15-year career, registering a true shooting percentage of 59.7%. The Celtics had the most efficient offense in NBA history, scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. And Holiday wasn’t the only guy sacrificing shots, with both Jaylen Brown (from 30.7% to 28.3%) and Jayson Tatum (from 31.9% to 29.6%) also seeing not-insignificant drops in usage rate.
The Celtics ranked second offensively last season and had the second most improved offense this season. They’re more dangerous in part because they’re more balanced.
The pick
Celtics in four. The Heat have proven to be a resilient group, and the Celtics struggled against the zone in last year’s conference finals. And Boston has some recent postseason demons beyond that.
The Celtics are evidently the superior team, particularly if Butler is unable to participate. Although Miami managed to suppress the Bulls’ 19th-rated offense to reach this point, they are now up against a significantly tougher adversary. The Celtics, functioning like a well-oiled machine, should easily make it to the conference semifinals for the seventh time in the past eight years.
