Phillies vs Braves: MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/21)

The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies today in a face-off involving two NL East teams. This evening’s match is the second in a series of three games, with the Braves having emerged victorious over Philly with a 3-1 score the previous night. Even though Atlanta trails the Phillies by 6 games in the division, they are actually leading the regular season series 5-2. There is one more series to be played between the two teams before the season concludes, but the Phillies’ lead in the NL East is gradually shrinking.

Philadelphia previously held a significant two-digit lead over the Braves in the NL East. However, after two consecutive losses, their lead has been reduced to just six games. Although time is against them, the Braves still have a chance to pull together a series of victories and claim the division. Philadelphia, having suffered four straight road losses, are currently in the midst of a challenging road trip, with their next stop being Kansas City after this series.

Can the Phillies recover tonight in Atlanta? Or will the Braves achieve their 4th consecutive victory?

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: NL East Showdown

Game Information – Phillies vs Braves

• Location & Venue: Truist Park in Atlanta, GA
• Date: Wednesday, August 21st, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:20pm Eastern

Phillies vs Braves Starting Pitchers

• Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies has a record of 11-6, an ERA of 3.45, and a WHIP of 1.16.
• Max Fried of Atlanta Braves has a record of 7-7, with a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Phillies +1.5 (-215)
• Braves -1.5 (+185)

Money Line

• Phillies -103
• Braves -107

Total

• Over 8 (-104)
• Under 8 (-116)

Aaron Nola Starts Against the Braves Tonight

Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies tonight. Despite having a strong season overall, his recent performances have been less than stellar. He hasn’t secured a win since the All Star Break and lost his last two games on the road. In these two games, he allowed seven runs off 17 hits in 11 total innings. Furthermore, he only managed to strike out four batters in each of his last four starts. On a positive note, he did perform well in his last game against the Nationals at home, pitching 6.2 scoreless innings and giving up only seven hits and two walks. However, the Phillies have lost five of the last six games where Nola was the starting pitcher. Given his current performance trend, it might be a tough start for him tonight.

Nola has had the fortune of facing the Braves twice already, resulting in a 1-1 score from two starts that were separated by months. In a March match, the Phillies were defeated by the Braves 12-4, with Nola only enduring 4.1 innings. He allowed 2 home runs and 6 earned runs from 11 hits in Philadelphia, but managed to improve in his next appearance. During an away game on July 5th, Nola lasted 6 innings, conceding 3 runs from 5 hits and 2 home runs. Despite this, he managed to strike out 8 batters, earning a victory. In August, the Braves have a .251 batting average, but this decreases to .237 against right-handed pitchers.

Regarding the Braves’ pitching, Max Fried has been selected. The left-handed pitcher has a high ERA at home games, and his WHIP increases to 1.54 at Truist Park. His recent performance has been underwhelming. Fried hasn’t secured a victory since June 23rd and his overall pitching has been subpar.

Max Fried Since July

• 25.2 Innings Pitched
• 6.42 ERA
• 1.87 WHIP

Fried has already encountered the Phillies twice, with both instances resulting in disappointing outcomes. During his first start of the season, Fried didn’t even manage to complete a full inning against Philadelphia. He only made it through 0.2 innings, during which he let in 3 runs from 2 hits and 3 walks. However, he was able to avoid a decision as the Braves pulled off a 12-4 victory. In a more recent game against the Phillies on July 5th, Fried was on the losing side. He let in 5 runs from 11 hits, including 2 home runs, over 6 innings. This led to the Braves losing the game 8-6. Fried’s performance has been declining ever since, and he faces a tough challenge tonight against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Best Bets

Phillies vs Braves Prediction: Phillies Win

Best Bet: Phillies F5 TT Over 1.5 (-145) BetOnline

I’m heavily banking on the Phillies’ batting lineup today to generate runs quickly and consistently. It’s puzzling why the odds are so low considering the team’s record of hitting .274 against left-handed pitchers and having previously overwhelmed this particular opponent. The Phillies have managed to surpass this first five innings (F5) score in both games against Fried, even scoring three runs before the end of the first inning in one game. While they’ve only managed to score 4 or more runs against the Braves in three out of seven games this season, they’ve accomplished this feat in both games where Fried was the starting pitcher.

The Phillies have a strong record against left-handed pitchers, and Fried has already had difficulty against them on two occasions. Additionally, his performance has significantly declined over the past two months. Despite Philadelphia only having one elite hitter facing Fried today, I’m relying on historical data that suggests they should be able to score some runs against him. There are five Phillies players who have a batting average of at least .300 and a minimum of 18 appearances against Fried.

• Alec Bohm: .333 AVG, 27 AB
• Nick Castellanos: .611 AVG, 18 AB
• Bryce Harper: .303 AVG, 33 AB
• J.T. Realmuto: .381 AVG, 42 AB
• Treat Turner: .395 AVG, 43 AB

Kyle Schwarber is the only Phillies player with 20 or more at-bats against Fried who is hitting under .300. Given the potential of the Phillies’ bats, I anticipate an impressive performance tonight.

Bonus Bet: Phillies TT Over 3.5 (-131) BetOnline

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