MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 3, 2024
Happy Tuesday!
People might consider our dedication to discovering consistent value in baseball as crazy, but we are unwavering in our commitment. Keeping this in mind, let us begin our Tuesday by introducing a few promising diamond plays.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
5/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
$10 Cash Bonus with code “BNEWS”
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1. Hooked again on yet another team total.
Nationals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
After hitting a home run, James Wood is giving high fives to his teammates.
The Stank:
Some might view this game as a snoozer, but I strongly disagree. With the Nationals featuring several elite-rated hitters, this matchup promises to be exciting. As of today, the Nationals have the second-highest average hitter matchup rating, boasting five elite-rated hitters and only three players above the league’s strikeout rate, according to Batters-Box.com.
The Nationals are set to go up against Marlins’ starting pitcher Max Meyer, who has been underperforming this season with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. In eight out of his ten starts, Meyer has let the opposition score over 1.5 runs, with seven of these instances happening consecutively. The 25-year-old ranks third in terms of the average hitter matchup hard contact percentage on the day, surrendering close to 40% hard contact to rival batters.
Despite being viewed as one of the less strong teams in the league, the Nationals demonstrate significant tenacity despite being 15 games below .500. They hold an average position in terms of scoring in the first five, with an average of 2.36 runs per game.
Following a crushing 14-1 defeat to the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, the Nationals should be driven to face the Marlins’ faltering rotation. Miami tends to concede the second-highest number of runs in the first five innings, allowing 3.17 runs per home game. The Nationals, who boast five top-rated players in the default ratings and six in the current season, should have little trouble surpassing 1.5 runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
When a batter outperforms both the default and current season ratings on Batters-Box.com, it merits a closer examination—especially if it isn’t Aaron Judge, who is frequently at the top due to his consistently hard contact. It’s especially significant when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the one leading both ratings.
After going 3-for-5 last night with three hits, an RBI, and a run, Guerrero Jr. faces Phillies starter Tyler Phillips today. Phillips has struggled in his last three starts, giving up 20 hits and 17 runs over 11 innings. He holds the second-worst pitcher rating this season on Batters Box and allows the second-most hard contact. Three of his five pitches are below league average, including his most frequently used sinker and slider. Guerrero Jr. is hitting over .300 with an OPS above .805 against both of these pitches.
I firmly believe that Guerrero Jr. will shine in tonight’s game, and I anticipate that the entire Blue Jays team will take advantage of Phillips. My money would be on Guerrero Jr. to touch all the bases, and I would even think about placing a wager on him hitting a home run as well.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+450)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
My preferred website for finding top matchup ratings for my daily MLB betting is Batters-Box.com. While it’s not the only source, it’s an excellent starting point for your daily baseball betting adventure. Last season, I managed to increase by 98 units using Batters-Box.com. Skeptical? Feel free to verify my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional statistics to aid me in deciding the value of a player.
Good luck this season you psychos!
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @C_marchio2 for all of my picks and sports opinions!
Be sure to check out all things Betting News on X and Twitch!
While you are at it go get some merch at our Betting News Store!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below and sign-up for a bonus!
5/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
$10 Cash Bonus with code “BNEWS”
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4.2/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
Watch Live Games
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4.4/5 Review Rating 125% Deposit Bonus or $25 Free Bet
Bonus Details »
Best Deposit & Free Play Bonuses
Largest Selection of Sports & Games
4.4/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
Odds Open Very Early
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4/5 Review Rating 50% up to $750
Bonus Details »
Very Fast Payout Times
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
Interested in Learning More About Betting on the MLB?
We offer a wealth of MLB betting resources, including daily predictions and expert picks. You can find them below to kickstart your betting journey.
- MLB Betting Articles
- MLB Betting Odds
- MLB Picks Page
Additionally, keep up with Betting News on platforms such as X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok for daily insights on sports betting and more from the Betting News team.
- Betting News on “X”/Twitter
- Betting News on Twitch
- Betting News on TikTok
