MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, HRR & Home Runs | September 9, 2024
Happy Monday!
The Must Props are back! After a tough day yesterday, I am in my own personal bounce back spot. So, without further ado, here are two plays and a sprinkle to kick off this marvelous Monday.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Sunday’s write up 0-2 and my full card lost nine units going 1-6-1. One of my worst betting days in a long time. Days like that are always due. Cherish the wins!
Ouch.
1-6-1 (-9.19u)
It is only the first Sunday of the NFL season. I’m not even worried. https://t.co/Wx2iYHncMC pic.twitter.com/1WBaKmwQm0
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 9, 2024
Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
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Weston Wilson has the second best hitter rating today on Batters-Box.com
The Stank:
The Phillies didn’t come through for us yesterday, but today we’re backing them again for a couple of key reasons: the price and the matchup.
They’re facing Rays pitcher Tyler Alexander, who will likely enter the game after the first or second inning, as Cole Sulser is the opener. Sulser’s ERA is 4.35 and his WHIP is 1.22, so he shouldn’t pose a significant threat in the first two innings.
Alexander has the third-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com for today and gives up the most hard contact among the starting pitchers. He’ll be up against the highest-rated offense on the slate, featuring five elite-rated hitters. The Phillies also boast six elite-rated hitters in the current ratings, with only two hitters striking out more frequently than average against Alexander.
The Phillies’ offense is typically strong early in games, as we saw on Friday night against Miami. Despite a rough game yesterday, scoring only one run in the ninth inning of a 10-1 loss, they’re overdue for a breakout performance.
Let’s run it back with the Phillies.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+110)
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The Stank:
There are two things I haven’t bet on in a while: Jazz Chisholm and a hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) prop. Let’s dive in!
Entering today’s slate, Chisholm holds the sixth-best rating on Batters-Box.com and the second-highest rating in the Royals vs. Yankees matchup, just behind Juan Soto. Since joining the Yankees, Chisholm has been exceptionally consistent, batting .316 with an OPS of .946, including 36 hits, nine home runs, and 23 runs in 29 games.
Chisholm has hit the over on this prop in four of his seven games this month. His overall trends are promising as well; he has exceeded 1.5 HRR 58% of the time in 50 elite-rated matchups, and in his last ten elite ratings, he’s gone over this prop six times.
Today, he faces Brady Singer, who has struggled on the road this season with a 3.95 ERA. Left-handed hitters, in particular, have been successful against him, batting .299 with a .367 OBP and .851 OPS.
This seems like a great spot for Chisholm, especially with plus money and all the signs pointing toward a successful play.
Sprinkle of the day:
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run (+450)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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