2020-21 Season Preview: New York Knicks

Will Thibodeau change Knicks’ fortunes?

When last seen, the Knicks were … putting the finishing touches on their sixth straight season in the bottom five of the Eastern Conference. They saw a win increase in a shortened season, but they had a low bar (the league’s worst record in 2018-19) in that regard and they were one of eight teams that failed to qualify for the league’s restart in Orlando. Mitchell Robinson showed flashes of being a two-way force inside and small steps were taken on both ends of the floor, but the veterans the Knicks brought in (on short contracts) last year didn’t really move the needle. The ultimate result was the latest in what feels like an endless cycle of restarts.

What’s new? The major changes have occurred in leadership. Former agent Leon Rose has taken over the front office and veteran coach Tom Thibodeau is now running things on the floor. The Knicks brought in a few more low-cost free agents and Obi Toppin is the latest lottery pick that they hope will stick. But if there’s going to be real improvement or even just a sign of promise, it will have to come from within.

What’s missing: The Knicks have some bigs that can finish at the rim, but they lack shot creation on the perimeter unless RJ Barrett (last year’s No. 3 pick) takes a big step forward. And while Thibodeau has a reputation for being a defensive coach, he couldn’t pull the Timberwolves out of the bottom 10 on that end of the floor in his 2 1/2 seasons in Minnesota and he doesn’t seem to have the personnel to keep the Knicks from being a worse-than-average defensive team for the 17th time in the last 18 years.

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POTENTIAL STARTING FIVE

Elfrid Payton | 10.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 7.2 apg
Caretaker at the point until the Knicks can find a serious upgrade. Kept the offense afloat last season.

Alec Burks | 15.0 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.9 ast
Known more for attacking the basket, but has become a sold 3-point shooter (38.5% last season).

RJ Barrett | 14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.6 apg
Rough, off-the-dribble shooting numbers as a rookie, but showed a knack for getting to the line.

Julius Randle | 19.5 pts, 9.7 reb, 3.1 ast
Saw a big drop in efficiency last season with a lower free throw rate and poor shooting from the outside.

Nerlens Noel | 7.4 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.5 blk
His 4.79 steals + blocks per 36 minutes was the league’s second highest mark (min. 750+ minutes played)

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KEY RESERVES

Reggie Bullock | 8.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.4 ast
Will be 19 months removed from back surgery when the season begins.

Austin Rivers | 8.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.7 apg
Scored 41 points in a game last season. Scored 3 (on 1-for-9 shooting) a few nights later.

Mitchell Robinson | 9.7 pts, 7.0 rpg, 2.0 blk
The talent is there. Added consistency and focus would make him a keeper.

Obi Toppin | 20.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.2 apg (Dayton)
The college player of the year should be ready to contribute offensively. Defense could be an issue

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New York Knicks, last 5 seasons

Season	W	L	PCT	OffRtg	Rank	DefRtg	Rank	NetRtg	Rank
2019-20	21	45	0.318	105.9	27	112.4	23	-6.5	26
2018-19	17	65	0.207	104.0	30	112.9	26	-8.9	28
2017-18	29	53	0.354	106.3	20	109.7	22	-3.4	23
2016-17	31	51	0.378	107.1	18	110.7	25	-3.6	24
2015-16	32	50	0.390	103.9	24	106.7	18	-2.8	22

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

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SEASON PREDICTION

It’s difficult to envision the Knicks ending the Eastern Conference’s longest active playoff drought (seven seasons and counting), though the new play-in scenario offers more hope than usual. More important than the results is the establishment of an environment in which young players can develop. Because that kind of structure has been absent, we don’t know yet if Barrett or Robinson are future franchise cornerstones or future journeymen, or if the Knicks should cut bait on Kevin Knox, Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith Jr. But the next six months are an opportunity to push those players further, while establishing the Knicks as a competent organization from top to bottom. They only have to look across the East River to find a franchise that rose from a worse position to one which established stars wanted to join.

Predicted finish: 22-50.

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