MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Props & Home Runs | September 19, 2024
Happy Friday Junior!
Welcome to today’s must-bet prop picks, where we explore the impact of the Champagne Theory and highlight the poor pitching matchups on the slate! With teams celebrating recent successes, we’ll take advantage of potential hangovers while focusing on players likely to capitalize on less-than-stellar pitching performances. Dive into our top prop bets to maximize your winnings today!
I’ll be live later today on Betting News’ Twitch at 5:30 PM EST, sharing all my baseball picks for the slate. Come join me, and let’s break down the plays together. Hope to see you there!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-1.
Diamondbacks (-0.5) F5 Spread (+100)
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Corbin Carroll hitting a ball into orbit
The Stank:
The Champagne Theory has entered the chat.
Last night, the Milwaukee Brewers clinched the NL Central division for the second consecutive season. According to sources, head coach Pat Murphy told the team they could party as much as they wanted until midnight. I doubt they stopped then, so it’ll be interesting to see how they feel this morning.
Today, we’re fading them and riding with the number one scoring team in the first five innings—the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’re coming off a solid 9-4 victory over the Rockies yesterday. You could argue their bats might cool off after such a big game and a travel day. Or, hear me out, you could fade the hangovers.
It comes down to whether you back the hangover or the hot bats.
Arizona has three elite-rated hitters today facing starter Tobias Myers. The concern lies with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound for the Diamondbacks. The 25-year-old right-hander has struggled, posting a 4.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He’s allowed over three runs in six straight starts. I’m leaning toward the Brewers’ celebration catching up with them, which could allow Pfaadt to finally have the bounce-back outing he’s been due for.
Fade the bottles!
Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100)
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The Stank:
The Mets are on fire, scoring ten runs in back-to-back games as they fight for a playoff spot. Currently holding the third wild card position, they sit two games ahead of the Atlanta Braves.
Today, they face Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, who has the lowest pitcher rating on the slate, according to Batters-Box.com’s current season pitcher ratings. Walker is giving up the most hard contact among today’s starters, with a 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He’s allowed teams to score over 2.5 runs in 12 of his 17 outings.
This will be the fourth time the Mets see Walker, who they faced just last Saturday. In that game, he surrendered only three hits in three innings. However, the Mets managed to score at least two runs in their previous two meetings with him.
The 32-year-old right-hander has the tough task of going up against six elite-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. Notably, New York has no hitters rated poorly or above the league strikeout rate in this matchup.
I believe the Mets’ bats will stay hot. I love the even money line and can’t pass up a team facing a starter for the fourth time, especially within a week.
Sprinkle of the day:
- Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+340)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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