MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly Team Totals | July 11th, 2024
Happy Friday, Junior ( Thursday)!
Today’s props will essentially be my mainstay. If you’re not yet acquainted with my favorite baseball prop bet this season, your lovely eyes will soon be enlightened.
Today is the day to boost our finances. Let’s earn some money!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Wednesday’s card went 4-4 (+1.19 Units)
It’s time to make Thursday feel like a real Friday!
Team Total: Astros F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Home run admired by Astros star, Yordan Alvarez.
The Stank:
Seriously, this is my livelihood. I search for these daily, regardless of the cost. First five team totals are what I live for.
Today’s victim will be Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, who enters today with the worst pitcher rating on Batters-box.com’s ratings. The 24-year-old right-hander has been struggling on the bump all season, posting a putrid ERA of 5.48 and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed teams to surpass 2.5 runs in four of his 9 outings this season. Not the most significant number, but he has allowed teams to go over 2 runs in seven of his nine outings. He does not give up a lot of hard contact, but he is not getting hitters to strike out or ground out.
The Astros enter today’s game with the best average hitter matchup score in both default and current season ratings. They have a total of seven superior hitters (3 default, 4 current) and are among the top ten in scoring for the first five, with an average of 2.63 runs per game. Their average score at home games this season is even more impressive at 2.93.
It’s worth noting that Munoz has a 5.67 ERA in eight night games, giving up an average of 3.25 runs per game. For some reason, he appears to have more difficulty performing at night. This could potentially present a betting opportunity.
Sprinkle of the Day: If Yordan Alavarez plays today, bet hit home run prop
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
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The Stank:
I always strive for complete transparency, so I must admit, this one makes me slightly nervous. This concern stems solely from the fact that the sample size for Dodgers’ starter, Landon Knack, is quite small, and he has only permitted one team to exceed this number in his seven starts.
However, allow me to explain why this is an attractive gamble.
Today, Mr. Knack has the second-lowest pitcher rating and his average matchup hard contact is the highest at 47.95%. He also has difficulty in making the hitters strike out and ground out.
Ring the bell!
The @Phillies are the first team to 60 wins! pic.twitter.com/rBcloV1UKq
— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2024
The Phillies have the most elite-rated hitters on the day, according to Batters-Box.com, with five in the default and six in the current season ratings. They are the number-one scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 3.08 per game. At home, it gets even better, scoring an average of 3.35 runs per game. In their last three games, they are averaging over four runs.
Knack’s tendency to give up hard contact at an absurd rate, coupled with the Phillies’ outstanding matchup ratings, make this a sure bet for me. Regardless of how infrequently Knack has let teams exceed this number or his other statistics, I advise caution. Regardless, we are going to press ahead and predict that the Phillies will take control early and frequently tonight.
Where to find more advanced analytics
My preferred website for finding the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets is Batters-Box.com. Although it’s not the ultimate guide, it’s a reliable starting point for your daily baseball wagering. I even increased my score by 98 units last season using Batters-Box.com. Still skeptical? Feel free to verify my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN for additional statistics to determine whether a player is worth my consideration or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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