#15 Louisville vs #16 Notre Dame: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/28)

Notre Dame hosts Louisville as the two schools meet in a Top 25 showdown in South Bend. While the Cardinals come into this game 3-0 on the season, the Irish wish they were also undefeated. Despite opening the season with a huge win over Texas A&M down in College Station, Notre Dame forgot how to play football the next weekend, losing to Northern Illinois at home, 16-14. Now, since then, the Irish have bounced back. They’ve won two straight games, dominating their opponents 94-10 in those contests, and despite Riley Leonard’s less than impressive play, the Irish find themselves in a solid spot once again.

Look, they screwed up and lost. Perfect season, out the window. However, their schedule is fairly easy and they should still be a playoff team. After hosting #15 Louisville this week, Notre Dame gets a much needed by week. They come back with 6 home games and 1 neutral site bout against Navy on the schedule, and end the season out in LA playing the USC Trojans. The season is far from over for the Irish, and I expect Marcus Freeman to have his guys ready to go this week.

Louisville is 3-0, but they have not been tested… at all. The Cardinals are outscoring their opponents 152-33 in three games this season. They whooped up on Austin Peay 62-0, beat Jacksonville State 49-14, and then handled Georgia Tech 31-19, all at home. Not only is this their first real opponent, but this is also their first road game of the season. The Cardinals were just outside of the Top 25 to start the season, and quickly moved up with their wins and other’s losses. However, now we get to see what they are truly made of.

Do they have the offense to go into South Bend and upset Notre Dame? Or will the Irish send the Cardinals back to Louisville with an extra L?

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Louisville vs Notre Dame: Top 25 Showdown in South Bend

Matchup Information – Louisville vs Notre Dame

• Venue & Location: Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, IN)
• Date: Saturday, September 28th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: Peacock

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Louisville +6.5 (-108)
• Notre Dame -6.5 (-112)

Money Line

• Louisville +200
• Notre Dame -240

Total

• Over 45 (-105)
• Under 45 (-115)

Can Cardinals Upset Irish on the Road?

Tyler Shough has been rock solid for the Cardinals. He’s completing over 68% of his passes, has 850 yards and 8 TDs in 3 games, and has been extremely careful with the ball. Shough has thrown 76 passes this season without an interception. Does that change against the Irish? Louisville has a very balanced rushing and passing attack, accounting for nearly 600 rushing yards as a team this year. They also have a committee of running backs, as 5 backs have 10+ carries on the year, none having more than 20, but 3 going for over 125+ rushing yards already this year.

The Irish defense is only allowing 250 total yards of offense and less than 10 points per game. The defense has never been the issue, and you wouldn’t expect it to with Freeman as the Head Coach. The problem has been Riley Leonard. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good quarterback, but much like Sam Hartman last year, the transfer QB is not living up to the expectations of a Notre Dame quarterback. He’s throwing for less than 150 yards per game and has just 1 TD and 2 INTs on the year through the air. Sure, he’s added 80 rushing yards per game and 6 TDs on the ground, but it clearly hasn’t been enough for this offense.

The Irish defense won them the game in College Station, kept them in the game against Northern Illinois, and has since allowed just 10 points in their L2 games. In all honesty, I don’t know how much offensive production to expect out of Louisville. The Cardinals pound the rock for over 6 yards per carry, but the Irish are holding teams to under 3.5 yards per rush. Louisville runs for nearly 200 yards per game, but Notre Dame holds squads under 125. In a Top 25 showdown, I’ve got to side with the home team defense to stop the visiting offense. Now, Louisville’s defense isn’t a slouch either, and I think they can slowdown the Irish a little.

However, I do think Leonard has turned a corner. He finally threw a TD pass as a member of Notre Dame last week, along with 143 rushing yards and 2 TDs. He’s scored in his last 3 contests, rushing for over 10 yards per carry in his L2. The Cardinals will certainly need to spy on him all game, and even then it might not be enough to slow him down.

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Louisville Cardinals vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Best Bets

Louisville vs Notre Dame Prediction: Notre Dame Wins & Covers, Under 45

Best Bets: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110) MyBookie

Despite my thinking this will be a low scoring game, I’m going to back the Irish to win by a TD. MyBookie is offering -110 odds for this line while it is -112 to -115 elsewhere, so snagging less juice is crucial. As mentioned earlier, Notre Dame is going into a bye week following this game. They expected to be undefeated going into their rest week, but that ship sailed. Since then, the Irish have taken it out on their opponents. I think they do the same against Louisville.

While the Cardinals are a good football team, once again, they have not been tested. Sure they beat Georgia Tech, don’t care. They haven’t played anyone, and they actually haven’t played anyone away from home. This is going to be a rude awakening for this Louisville defense, as I expect Notre Dame to go full throttle without stopping for 60 minutes. Give me a true Riley Leonard breakout game in front of his home crowd, regaining the confidence the Irish need the rest of the season.

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