Belgian GP predictions: Another McLaren 1-2, Verstappen podium, Hamilton P6

Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri of McLaren.

After a wet qualifying in Belgium, conditions will change dramatically for the race. Expect slightly cloudy weather, but an all dry race with Max Verstappen going for the epic comeback and McLaren in a great position to claim its second consecutive 1-2 after Hungary.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Belgian GP. And we encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well!

Belgian Grand Prix predictions from P10 to P1

10. Esteban Ocon

After a great qualifying in the wet, Alpine has a fantastic chance to grab a point in Belgium and minimise damage. In dry conditions, the Enstone-based team’s car should suffer more, but Friday’s long runs put them on a very even pace with Williams and behind Aston Martin.

With their rivals lagging behind, the fight with Alexander Albon for P10 could be interesting and a fight to watch.

9. Fernando Alonso

Aston Martin has made a step forward with the upgrades in Hungary. After a good qualifying performance from Fernando, the AM24’s pace in the dry looked positive on Friday. Not enough to catch Mercedes and Ferrari, obviously, but enough to stand out in the midfield.

8. George Russell

His qualifying was not particularly brilliant. And the pace of the W15 in the dry left something to be desired on Friday, although all indications are that Mercedes didn’t show its full potential.

Still, it looks like Ferrari have a better top speed this weekend and this could help the Italian team in a race with high temperatures.

7. Carlos Sainz

Carlos Sainz’s second try in qualifying was pretty bad. The Spanish driver was beaten by +0.723s by his teammate, who will start from P1 after Max Verstappen’s penalty.

From P7, Carlos’ main aspiration for the race will be to fight with George Russell. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc will have a big early advantage and Ferrari is not on the pace of McLaren and Red Bull.

6. Lewis Hamilton

After a great qualifying, Lewis should drop positions in dry conditions. McLaren has much more pace than Mercedes, Sergio Perez should be able to hold on and Max Verstappen will come in behind like a rocket with his new engine.

It will be difficult for Hamilton to dream of a podium finish as he did in Hungary. With a setup very focused on tyre management due to a higher aero load, his best weapon will be to have less degradation than Russell and both Ferrari drivers.

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5. Sergio Perez

The Mexican driver has a great opportunity to show Red Bull that he can keep his seat beyond this race in Spa. He will start from P2 and although the RB20 has been solid this weekend in both wet and dry conditions, the reality is that his focus will be on helping Max Verstappen in his comeback rather than fighting McLaren.

If he can perform as well as he did in qualifying, a podium finish for Checo is possible, but behind him will be two papaya cars looking to put a dent in the Constructors’ Championship again before the summer break.

4. Charles Leclerc

Charles will start from pole position after Max Verstappen was penalised. His fight in the race should be against Perez and Hamilton. Ferrari’s pace has not been really bad this weekend, but nothing comparable to Red Bull and McLaren.

No doubt, on one of the circuits where the Italians expected to suffer the most, a P4 is a great result for him to keep up the good momentum carried since last race.

3. Max Verstappen

Podium for Max. With a new engine in the rear of his RB20, on a circuit where it is easy to overtake and where his car has shown to be very complete both in top speed and fast corner performance, reaching the podium should not be a difficult mission.

The big question is, will he also be able to fight for the win? It will all depend on how fast Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri can overtake Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc in the opening stages of the race. If McLaren have a bad first stint, Verstappen could even go for the win as he did in his 2023 comeback.

2. Oscar Piastri

This time we think Oscar will finish behind Lando. After taking his first F1 win in Hungary, the Australian driver would finish the first half of the 2024 season in a great P2 for him. As discussed above, all McLaren’s chances of victory will depend on the first few laps of the race.

1. Lando Norris

Lando has a great opportunity this Sunday to take a few points off Max Verstappen. The McLaren driver will have to be aggressive in the first stint to avoid losing time and stop Verstappen catching him and Oscar Piastri.

After falling just short of victory in Hungary, Norris and the MCL38 need to consolidate their position in Red Bull territory with a win before the summer break to give them a confidence boost for the final 10 races of the F1 2024 calendar.

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