British GP predictions: Norris v Verstappen for victory, Russell podium, Aston Martin bounce back

We’re all looking forward to the British Grand Prix, and here’s a look at our pre-race predictions.

After a qualifying session with mixed conditions and the threat of rain for the British GP 2024 hovering over the Silverstone circuit, we expect a vibrant race with multiple on-track battles and many open scenarios.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the British GP. And we encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well. These predictions are mainly based on dry performance and long run pace from Friday’s Free Practice data. It is worth mentioning that there is a high chance of rain during the race that could spice things up even more at Silverstone!

Race predictions: 2024 British Grand Prix

10: Lance Stroll

After beating Fernando Alonso again in qualifying, we think Lance will finish in the points in the race. He has shown good pace all weekend and has made a step forward in the race as of late. It would be a nice treat for the Aston Martin staff at his team’s home GP after several difficult weekends.

9: Fernando Alonso

Alonso usually has good starts at Silverstone. Aston Martin’s pace this weekend is looking very promising compared to recent weekends. So is Williams’, but in race pace and dry conditions the Silverstone team should have an advantage.

Still, Aston Martin will have a tough race and will have to fight with an Alexander Albon who at home and in changing conditions always comes up trumps.

8: Nico Hülkenberg

After an incredible qualifying with the best Sector 1 time and a fantastic Austrian GP, Nico Hülkenberg is in great form. The Haas updates seem to be positive and the German is very comfortable in his car.

We believe that the future Audi driver can be ‘the best of the rest’ at this British GP. There is every reason to believe he can hold off Aston Martin and even keep Carlos Sainz’s Ferrari several laps behind him at the start of the race.

7: Charles Leclerc

The Monégasque driver has some ground to make up. Ferrari‘s pace is leaving a lot to be desired at Silverstone, but he should be able to overtake the mid-table teams on the grid.

However, by the time he gets ahead of them it may be too late to try and fight for anything more than P7 unless there are some surprises ahead.

6: Carlos Sainz

As discussed with Leclerc, Ferrari does not have the pace this weekend to fight against the top three teams. The Italian team is a step behind and they have to accept that a double points finish in P6 and P7 is a positive result knowing their shortcomings in fast corners.

The only thing that can make them aspire to more is a good tyre degradation management or rain to compress the pack.

5: Oscar Piastri

It’s not been an easy weekend for him so far. The tyre preparation during his out-lap for his last Q3 attempt was not ideal and he couldn’t be faster than Max Verstappen with a very damaged car.

His fight in the race will clearly be with the Dutchman at the start, but we think he should fight with Mercedes for the podium in the race.

4: Lewis Hamilton

After a difficult race in Austria and after being beaten again by his teammate in qualifying, a P4 might seem like a bad result. But being ahead of Oscar Piastri’s McLaren would already be a great triumph for the future Ferrari driver.

The Mercedes has good pace, but this might not be enough for Lewis to finish on the podium today. Still, starting from P2, the first stint will be key to determine what his real chances are in the race.

More reaction to British Grand Prix qualifying

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3: George Russell

After taking a surprise win in Austria and pole at home, you’d think Russell would be in line for another win at Silverstone. That’s true, but Mercedes’ long run pace for 52 laps should be outpaced by both McLaren and Red Bull.

With greater difficulty than in recent races? It’s possible because the W15 has been very solid both in race simulation and in qualifying itself. But even so, the MCL38 and RB20 are still a step ahead.

2: Max Verstappen

After a qualifying where his car suffered significant damage, starting from P4 the Red Bull driver has a good chance of a podium finish. We also believe he will have more pace than Mercedes and will be able to catch George Russell and Lewis Hamilton sooner or later in the race distance.

However, we think McLaren and Lando Norris will be more aggressive at home this weekend and will be going all out for the win. Still, the Max Verstappen factor is very powerful and the reigning World Champion should never be counted out of the battle.

1: Lando Norris

A return to the top step after his Austrian clash for the McLaren driver. The Papaya team has been very solid all weekend, but the qualifying conditions did not benefit them at all.

Nevertheless, on race pace simulations, McLaren showed a better performance than Mercedes and reaching P1 should be a matter of time for Lando. The big question is what the pace difference between him and Max Verstappen will be.

From recent races, we can expect a trickier first stint for Lando, but a very tight end to the race between Verstappen and Norris. With the advantage over Max on the starting grid, McLaren must have an aggressive approach to beat the Dutchman.

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