The Kimi Antonelli theory that could trigger Max Verstappen’s Red Bull exit

Does Max Verstappen need to worry about Mercedes signing Kimi Antonelli?

The potential arrival of Kimi Antonelli at Mercedes could play a major factor in Max Verstappen’s decision-making for 2025, according to Ted Kravitz.

While Max Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull until 2028, speculation has suggested the Dutch driver could be eyeing a switch to Mercedes over the next year or two.

Ted Kravitz: Kimi Antonelli the main worry for Max Verstappen

With possible weaknesses appearing in the relationship between Red Bull and Max Verstappen in the wake of the Red Bull GmbH’s internal investigation into team boss Christian Horner earlier this year, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff made his interest in getting Verstappen’s signature very clear.

Mercedes is seeking a worthy replacement for the departing seven-time F1 World Champion Lewis Hamilton, who is Ferrari-bound, and securing Verstappen as his successor would be a major coup for the Brackley-based squad.

While some reports in Dutch media claim meetings between the Verstappen camp and Mercedes have been held, the three-time F1 World Champion recently distanced himself from the possibility of a switch to Mercedes by saying that suggestions of eye-watering amounts of money would not be enough to tempt him to leave a competitive car.

A factor that could be on Verstappen’s mind is that, while he looks nailed on for titles in 2024 and, possibly 2025, thanks to Red Bull’s competitiveness under the current regulations, the revolutionary rulebook coming in 2026 means there’s no guarantee of continued success with Red Bull.

Red Bull lose Honda at the conclusion of 2025, and will switch to their own engine supply after building up Red Bull Powertrains at their Milton Keynes-based campus in recent years. But RBPT is unproven in the engine-building world, while Mercedes dominated the last change in engine regulations when the hybrids were introduced in 2014.

It’s understood that, despite being under contract with Red Bull, Verstappen has various get-out clauses in his deal that would enable him to leave the team if he so wished – one of these being the ability to leave if team consultant and close friend Helmut Marko is no longer in situ.

The team recently confirmed Sergio Perez alongside the already-contracted Verstappen for 2025, but the subject of whether this will actually be Red Bull’s driver line-up in 2025 was discussed on the Sky F1 podcast ahead of the Spanish Grand Prix.

“Checo [Perez] is there and Max can leave if certain conditions are met,” Kravitz said on the show.

“One of those conditions is if he just feels like it, the other condition is what happens with Helmut Marko – if he goes, then Max can go.

“It’s the same kind of contract that Sebastian Vettel had at Red Bull which allowed him to go to Ferrari, it’s more or less the same thing with get-out clauses either way that Max Verstappen has.”

If Verstappen is indeed weighing up his options and eyeing a move to Mercedes, Kravitz said the Dutch driver’s decision-making could be hastened by the threat of Mercedes plumping for their own junior protege Kimi Antonelli.

The 17-year-old Italian is highly regarded by Mercedes and has been earmarked as a potential ‘next Verstappen’ due to his abilities in the junior categories. Kravitz believes that Verstappen might feel the need to move to Mercedes in 2025 in order to ensure Antonelli and George Russell being secured doesn’t potentially block the possibility for 2026.

“In a sense, the only person that Max Verstappen needs to worry about in his freedom to move to Mercedes – if he believes, which we believe some of the Verstappen camp do, that Mercedes will be the best place for the new rules set in 2026,” Kravitz said.

“The only thing Max has to worry about whether he needs to get his bottom in that seat early is 17 year old Kimi Antonelli, who Toto Wolff hasn’t decided whether he’s going to take that seat.

“If Max sees the possibility of not getting in that seat, and making it harder for himself in 2026 because Antonelli and Russell are already in the team, then that’s the only reason why Max might, at the end of this year or towards the end of this year or even beginning of next, say, ‘OK, Helmut is off’ – if that’s the mechanism he chooses to leave – ‘I would like to go to Mercedes, that’s what I’m going to do’ so.

“But, if he still thinks that he can race for Red Bull Racing in 2025 and his concerns about 2026 are unfounded, that he can continue up to the end of his contract anyway. Or if he thinks that there’s a device or mechanism by which he can move one of the Mercedes drivers – if he still chooses to go there in 2026 – then I suppose he could stay [at RBR] for 2025.

“But that’s something that he’ll have to think about and something we won’t know for the rest of the season. Lots of conjecture and hypotheticals in there but I think we can more or less say that it’ll be Verstappen and Perez for Red Bull next year. I’m 99 percent sure.”

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Bernie Collins: Mercedes assessing Kimi Antonelli’s readiness

With Mercedes yet to make a decision on whether or not to take the chance on promoting Antonelli into their team outright for 2025, Sky F1 broadcaster and former F1 race engineer Bernie Collins spoke about the work that will be going on to assess the Italian’s abilities.

“There’s going to be quite a lot going on in the background, there’ll be all the simulator running happening,” she said.

“There’s quite an extensive test programme going on in historic cars, which is basically older than two years. So there’s a lot of work going on in the background to get him up to speed, to get some analysis done to see where he’s at.

“We’re getting the impression that there’s a fear of missing out on the next Verstappen and they want to back someone young and then bring them to the programme and then, potentially in a few years time, that is the next Verstappen.

“I think there’s that fear around missing out on getting him into that seat. That’s potentially why there’ll be this push to maybe put him in the seat a little bit before he’s ready.”

With Williams still having a seat available as Logan Sargeant continues to underwhelm team boss James Vowles, Collins suggested the Grove-based team could run Antonelli for the second half of this season to try someone new in Sargeant’s place while also helping Mercedes out.

“Now, is there something that they can play with the Williams seat?” she questioned.

“Can he go to Williams for the second half of the year, for example, then get into the Mercedes?

“We’ve seen that happen in the past – it happened with George. He did a few years at Williams, then he moved to Mercedes – was that as successful as just putting him in the Mercedes?

“We don’t know, we don’t have a back-to-back on that. But there are a lot of questions going on around, I think, in the Mercedes camp at the minute.”

Kravitz pointed out that, if speculation is to be believed, Williams could be set to announce their second driver for 2025 soon – potentially indicating that Verstappen is set to remain at Red Bull.

“We’re expecting there to be no room at the inn at Williams, we’re expecting them to confirm Alex Albon’s partner will be Carlos Sainz fairly shortly,” he said of Williams.

“So what then do James Vowles and Toto Wolff know that we don’t?

“Do they know that it’s highly unlikely Max Verstappen is gonna come to Mercedes and leave Red Bull? Maybe they do know that. And that’s given them the freedom then to fill both the Williams drives and then potentially the Mercedes drives as well.”

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