Max Verstappen to Aston Martin? How the lure of Newey and Honda could break Mercedes hearts

Could Aston Martin beat Mercedes to the signing of Max Verstappen?

It’s not about who’s fast today, but who’s going to be fast tomorrow.

That is the conundrum every driver who has ever changed teams in F1 has faced, establishing communication with their inner psychic to try and predict the future.

Could Aston Martin beat Mercedes to Max Verstappen’s signature?

Max Verstappen is only the latest in a long line of racing drivers with the challenge of second guessing how exactly the next generation of Formula 1 will look when the theory stops and the reality drops.

From sustaining their 2023 dominance in the early weeks of F1 2024, since Newey’s departure was confirmed on the morning of May 1 Red Bull has won just three of the last nine races.

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With Newey’s exit followed by that of Jonathan Wheatley, the long-serving sporting director responsible for Red Bull’s peerless pit-stop records, there is a growing sense that the end of an era – or at least the end of the team’s golden days – is approaching, if it hasn’t already arrived that is.

They will continue to win races, no doubt, but in 2024 Red Bull has lost something – an undefinable, undecipherable something – they will not easily get back.

And if Verstappen is to retain hope that the wins and World Championships will keep rolling in over the long term, it may be – regardless of what his contract might say – that he must soon leave too.

But to where?

Most assume Mercedes. Simply because it’s Mercedes.

Simply because they are the only team to have a record remotely comparable to that of Red Bull in the modern era.

Simply because the last time F1 reinvented its engine regulations a decade ago, just as it will in 2026, Mercedes aced it and laid the foundations for eight long years of near-untroubled dominance.

If Verstappen feels he has no choice but to jump to another stone to avoid going off the cliff edge with Red Bull, Mercedes looks to be as safe a landing spot as any.

Unless Aston Martin are about to change the game completely.

A report in the Italian media on Tuesday claimed that Newey has decided on Aston Martin as his next destination, with an announcement expected to arrive in early September.

It comes after consistent reports over recent months had indicated that Aston Martin had nosed ahead of their rivals in the race to sign Newey, who under the terms of his Red Bull exit is free to start work with his new employers next year and thus play an influential – potentially pivotal – role in the development of the lucky team’s 2026 car.

That rumoured meeting between Newey and Lawrence Stroll at this year’s Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in Jeddah, where the Aston Martin owner is said to have made an eye-watering proposal of $100million over four years, may soon enter F1 folklore.

It is not exactly the romantic’s choice, for if he is ever going to join Ferrari it is surely now or never, but if Aston Martin ultimately are successful in reuniting Newey and 2026 engine partners Honda it would also put them high on the list of potential suitors for Verstappen too.

Newey’s technical genius is a given, of course, yet of equal value to Aston Martin would be his experience and knowledge of how to get the best out of Honda.

It is this that allowed Red Bull to succeed where McLaren failed so horribly between 2015-17, managing the relationship with Honda and overcoming a potentially catastrophic clash of cultures.

From the moment Honda first linked up with junior team VCARB (then Toro Rosso) in 2018, Red Bull struck the right note and harnessed their engine partner’s potential to perfection, reaping the rewards with a return to title contention in 2021 before recapturing their dominant ways at the start of the ground-effect era.

Aston Martin may have paraded their partnership with Honda as a milestone moment in the team’s title ambitions when it was announced last year, yet a question mark hanging over the arrangement was always whether the team, driven by Mr Stroll’s brute financial force, possessed the emotional intelligence and astuteness to make it work effectively.

The arrival of Newey, if (when?) confirmed, would guarantee that they will.

And what must Max be thinking watching these developments?

Seeing these two crucial elements of Red Bull’s holy trinity, with whom he has already achieved so much, on the verge of reappearing at Aston Martin?

Until now Aston Martin has resembled something of a risk for drivers in Verstappen’s position, a team with quite a modest history and, while bubbling with potential, carrying a few too many unknowns for those already in winning cars to commit to.

Pairing Newey and Honda, however, would effectively eliminate that risk, allowing him to pick up almost from where he left off – just him, Adrian and Honda making magic live and uncut together – before life at Red Bull took a turn for the worse.

It would be a powerful, irresistible invitation for Max to sign up too and complete the set, confirming Aston Martin’s potential as the new Red Bull when F1’s new era begins in 2026.

It would be akin to getting the band back together, only this time with a dashing tinge of green.

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