Verdict: Who will win the F1 2024 Constructors’ Championship?

McLaren and Red Bull are in a fight for the 2024 Constructors’ crown.

Just 51 points separate Red Bull and McLaren in the fight for the Constructors’ crown but with the Woking team in good momentum, Red Bull’s retaining of the title may not be so simple.

After Red Bull scored two one-twos in the opening two races, it looked almost certain that both Max Verstappen’s and Red Bull’s crown would be retained in 2024. However, times have changed and while Verstappen is still the favourite for the Drivers’, that is not necessarily the case for the Constructors’ for Red Bull.

Who will win the 2024 F1 Constructors’ Championship?

Jamie Woodhouse: While McLaren being raw in the role of F1’s dominant force showed in Hungary via their team orders debacle, it feels like the momentum has shifted towards the Woking outfit in a major way.

And it is not only Sergio Perez’s form which serves as a question mark hanging over Red Bull’s Constructors’ title quest. Where does Verstappen go from here?

After making no attempt to hide his frustrations over the major RB20 upgrade package for Hungary not providing a performance leap, Verstappen’s displeasure continued to build into race day and that Lewis Hamilton crash almost felt inevitable. Shades of the past Max Verstappen and this re-emergence poses the question: will Verstappen throw away vital Red Bull points?

The new reality for Verstappen is that his dominant days are over – at least for now – so a cool head – which on the evidence of Hungary is lacking – is going to be needed to nurse himself and Red Bull to the end if a third title double on the trot is to be secured. Skirmishes and arguments will help no one, except for McLaren, of course!

So with that in mind, combined with the fact that Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are thriving in the MCL38, I reckon McLaren are heading for their first Constructors’ title since 1998.

Thomas Maher: At the start of the season, my prediction was that Red Bull would walk this year – with Max even winning the Constructors’ all by himself with a similar display of dominance as last year.

But F1 has moved far quicker than that – to the point where even a significant improvement of laptime compared to the RB19 hasn’t been enough for Red Bull to maintain its dominance, such has been the rate of improvement from the likes of McLaren and Mercedes, in particular.

With Red Bull very much a one-driver team, it’s thus very difficult now to see anyone but McLaren nailing this championship. With two drivers performing at the car’s limit, neither of whom are crash kings or wildly inconsistent, the Woking-based squad is particularly well prepared to maximise its points-scoring abilities in the second half of the championship.

Mercedes’ W15 is still a little too inconsistent to topple Red Bull outright, although things are definitely moving in the right direction there too. But, unless Red Bull can either somehow re-ignite Perez’s abilities, or slot someone else in who can immediately perform at 90 percent of what Verstappen is capable of, this title is going to slip away from Milton Keynes and straight into the hands of Woking.

Sam Cooper: When I predicted McLaren to get P2 in our pre-season predictions, I must admit I did not think that would be wrong because they were champions.

Momentum is firmly with McLaren but the talent of Max Verstappen and Red Bull’s been there, done that experience is not to be written off lightly.

I still think it is early in McLaren’s cycle for major silverware, although I expect them to win it next year, but that would change if Red Bull keep Sergio Perez in the car.

If the Mexican is still in the seat after the summer break, I would have it as McLaren’s to lose.

Henry Valantine: While circumstances are different, I can see a top-level parallel to the 2009 season here (a handy reminder to watch the excellent Brawn documentary if you’re yet to do so), in that the early-season dominant force is seeing their lead gradually reeled in and it may end up being the case, in the Constructors’ Championship at least, of whether or not Red Bull can hold on.

Quietly, Sergio Perez had a strong recovery drive at the Hungaroring on Sunday to take seventh place, but he and the team know that isn’t enough in the long run to score the points required, and what I think will save Red Bull in both title races is the fact other teams are taking points off each other.

If it was only McLaren at the front of the field, I’d be much more confident in saying they will overtake them, but with Mercedes now in the picture and Ferrari doing all they can to catch up, and with Max Verstappen wrestling everything from his RB20, the points are being spread around relatively evenly.

Despite their two wins this year, I still believe there is enough evidence from the season to suggest McLaren in their current state are still a little bit raw in competition at the front, and are gathering knowledge of how to manage these situations in a true title battle. Next year, with more experience in these situations under their belts however? A different story.

For now, though, I think Red Bull will just about cling on.

Read next: Hungarian GP conclusions: McLaren team orders, Piastri rise, Red Bull’s Perez failure