Playoff Outlook: Bubba Wallace Makes Major Gain; Ross Chastain, Ty Gibbs Continue to Backslide

After 22 straight weekends of on-track activity, the NASCAR Cup Series has finally arrived at its two-week break for the Olympic Summer Games and won’t return to a racetrack until August 10, marking the first (nd second) off weekends of the 2024 season.

It’s one of, if not the most grueling opening stints in a professional sports campaign, and after an unprecedented stretch like this season, requires some time to rest and relax. No team wants to coast through the break and fall behind, but it’s also important not to overwork the employees who will have another 14 weeks ahead of them.

There are still four regular-season races left to be run between the end of the 20 days of on-track silence and the start of the Playoffs: Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington. With the end of the regular season approaching, everybody has one eye locked on the regular season title, and another on who will make the post-season.

At the top of the point standings, things remain ultra-tight between three drivers: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick. After Pocono, the three leaders were separated by just 20 points, but now, after Indianapolis, the top three are only separated by 15.

It’s likely that with the consistency being displayed by the No. 5 (Larson), No. 9 (Elliott), and No. 45 (Reddick) teams, each driver’s result in the penultimate regular-season event at Daytona International Speedway will have a major impact on who secured the regular-season title.

Denny Hamlin remains fourth in regular-season points, but after being swept up in a late-race crash in the Brickyard 400 is now 43 points behind Larson. Ryan Blaney (-73), William Byron (-95), Martin Truex, Jr. (-96), Christopher Bell (-98), Brad Keselowski (-134), and Alex Bowman (-143) round out the top-10 – all of which would get Playoff Points if the regular-season ended now.

Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, and Ross Chastain sit 19, 44, and 54 points behind the current 10^th-place points driver, Alex Bowman.

With just four Playoff spots currently available via points and four regular-season events left on the docket, the NASCAR Cup Series will not have more than 16 winners this season. However, because Martin Truex, Jr. is still mathematically able to win the regular-season title, several of the one-off winners have yet to *officially* clinch their spot.

When it comes to the bubble, Martin Truex, Jr. remains a solid +108 over the cutline after Indianapolis. While that number has come down 33% in the last four races, from +155, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver should be solidly in the post-season unless things get crazy.

That’s about where any reasonable amount of comfort ends.

With one top-15 in the last seven races, Ty Gibbs is in desperate need of a reset that the two-week break can provide, now only sitting 42 points above the cutline. When this slump began, Gibbs was more than 100 points to the good, but with some recent engine issues making themselves known, any additional hiccups could have the No. 54 backsliding right out of the Playoffs.

After a tough showing at Indianapolis, Chris Buescher has now fallen into the clutches of both Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace, sitting just 17 points above the cutline. But it’s worth a reminder, that this was the point in the season where RFK Racing turned up the heat, with Buescher winning back-to-back races at Richmond and Michigan, the two tracks the series visits next.

The driver most in danger of falling by the wayside? Ross Chastain. At only seven points above the cutline, there probably weren’t many people expecting the Alva, Florida native to be winless at this point in the season, let alone holding onto a post-season spot for dear life.

It’s been a bit of a perfect storm for Chastain, and although Trackhouse hasn’t had the speed needed to contend for wins this year, DNFs at Nashville and Pocono haven’t been helpful, and neither have new winners Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, and Joey Logano.

After Joey Logano won Nashville, it didn’t appear the fight to make the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs would come down to a points fight, but rather drivers below the cutline needing a win to secure their spot, all sitting 50-plus points back.

Bubba Wallace squashed that almost instantly, scoring 97 points in a three-week stretch that included the Chicago Street Course, Pocono, and Indianapolis. Chris Buescher scored 58 points in that same timeframe, and Ross Chastain only scored 38.

That’s what has put Wallace, driver of the No. 23 Toyota Camry XSE, back in the fight as far as making it into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs via points. Another bonus for the 30-year-old driver is the speed that 23XI Racing has been bringing to the racetrack, for both himself and teammate Tyler Reddick.

For everybody trailing Wallace in point standings, though, a berth into the post-season is certainly going to require a trip to Victory Lane. With an option tire set to be used at Richmond, and the general uncertain circumstances surrounding superspeedways, it’s possible there could be another shakeup – or maybe even two – before the field of 16 is decided.

Photo Credit: Tyson Gifford, TobyChristie.com