Consensus Mock Draft: Final look provides clarity – it's Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III at the top

The Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to come up with a good estimate of how the 2018 NBA Draft could play out.

Some notes as we enter the day of the Draft (last update: June 20, 1 a.m. ET):

• As we take our final look at the mock drafts before Draft night, there remains a complete consensus at No. 1: Deandre Ayton appears to be the pick here, as the Suns get their big man to rebuild around. At this point, Ayton appears at No. 1 on all 10 mock drafts and it would be a complete shock if Phoenix didn’t grab the talented big man who played down the road at Arizona.
• There used to be intrigue beginning at No. 2, but that’s changed in the last days as it now appears the Kings are grabbing Duke’s Marvin Bagley III. Turner Sports’ David Aldridge is the lone holdout, seeing Sacramento going with guard Luka Doncic.
• Things will really get interesting at No. 3. The Hawks have reportedly become more enamored with Doncic, and six of our mock drafts now see Atlanta taking the international point guard. Still, Jaren Jackson Jr. wouldn’t be too surprising here and would give Atlanta a nice frontcourt alongside John Collins.
• Doncic’s spiral seems to have slowed. In our last look, several mock drafts had him slipping all the way to either No. 4 (Grizzlies) or even No. 5 (Mavericks). Now, though, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll get past the Grizzlies. Doncic has long been considered one of the Top 2 prospects and most-NBA ready despite being just 19 years old, thanks to strong experience in Euroleague action with Real Madrid.
• Oklahoma guard Trae Young has seen his stock settle a bit. Previously, some mocks saw him going as high as No. 3, but now the highest he appears is No. 4, and most commonly to the Magic at No. 6 (four times) or the Cavs at No. 8 (three times).
• Miami shooting guard Lonnie Walker IV has seen some increased buzz since our first look. He previously appeared on just three of the 10 mocks below, but now shows up in six mocks, as high as No. 10 to the 76ers (twice) but most likely he’ll end up going to the Clippers at either No. 12 or 13.
• No one seems to have any idea where Michael Porter Jr. will land. Previously, Porter had made a surprising jump, with two mocks placing him at No. 2 to Sacramento. Now, though, five of the mocks see him going to the Bulls at No. 7. Porter could end up shaking up the draft if someone high takes a stab on the Missouri prospect.
• One prospect who continues to gain ground in the mocks is Kentucky swingman Kevin Knox. In our first look he only appeared on a few mocks, but now he shows up in the lottery on all 10 mocks. The Ringer has him going at No. 7 to the Bulls, but most see him landing in the end of the lottery, and most commonly at No. 11 to the Hornets.
• One player whose stock is dropping is Michigan State’s Miles Bridges. In previous looks, Bridges seemed like a lock to land in the lottery. Today, though, he falls out of the lottery in three of the 10 mocks, with four seeing him heading to the Nuggets at No. 14.
• Alabama point guard Collin Sexton has climbed since our last look. He now shows up in the lottery in all 10 of our mocks, as high as No. 6, but most see him ending up with the Knicks (No. 9, four times) or the Hornets (No. 11, four times).
• Logistical note: The SB Nation mock draft was replaced by that of NBA.com colleague David Aldridge because, well, he’s D.A. Also, two mock drafts (The Ringer and Bleacher Report) will be updated again Thursday morning, I’m told, so check those sites for their latest updates.
• Eleven players appear on all 10 mocks we survey: Ayton, Bagley III, Doncic, Jackson Jr., Young, Bamba, Porter Jr., Mikal Bridges, Kevin Knox, Collin Sexton and Wendell Carter Jr.

MOST COMMON PICKS

No. 1 (Suns): Deandre Ayton (10)

No. 2 (Kings): Marvin Bagley III (9)

No. 3 (Hawks): Luka Doncic (6)

No. 4 (Grizzlies): Jaren Jackson Jr. (4)

No. 5 (Mavericks): Mohamed Bamba (5)

No. 6 (Magic): Trae Young (4)

No. 7 (Bulls): Michael Porter Jr. (5)

No. 8 (Cavaliers): Wendell Carter Jr. (4)

No. 9 (Knicks): Collin Sexton (4)

No. 10 (76ers): Mikal Bridges (7)

No. 11 (Hornets): Kevin Knox, Collin Sexton (4)

No. 12 (Clippers): Lonnie Walker IV (3)

No. 13 (Clippers): Robert Williams (4)

No. 14 (Nuggets): Miles Bridges (4)

Most common (above): Pick at which the player is most commonly projected, with number of mock drafts in parentheses. For example, Deandre Ayton is projected to go first in all 10 of the mock drafts listed below.

Top 14 (below): To calculate the consensus, we awarded 14 points for every mock draft in which the player went first overall, 13 for second, continuing to one point for the final lottery pick. The player with the highest point total represents the top overall selection, which is as follows:

No. 1: Deandre Ayton | Phoenix Suns

Arizona | Position: C | Height: 7-1

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 1 (10)

Physical specimen who has size to shine in post, but agile and talented enough to develop outside game; should contribute from Day 1 to whomever lands him

No. 2: Marvin Bagley III | Sacramento Kings

Duke | Position: PF | Height: 6-11

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 2 (9)

ACC Player of the Year has all the makings of a small-ball center or power forward who can make defenses sweat — all while rebounding at a prodigious rate

No. 3: Luka Doncic | Atlanta Hawks

Real Madrid | Position: SG/SF | Height: 6-8

Status: International

Most Common: 3 (6)

Versatile Slovenian is one of most NBA-ready international prospects ever; talented distributor who can play both guard positions

No. 4: Jaren Jackson Jr. | Memphis Grizzlies

Michigan State | Position: PF | Height: 6-11

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 4 (4)

Outstanding defender who boasts an emerging offensive game that gives him great two-way potential

No. 5: Mohamed Bamba | Dallas Mavericks

Texas | Position: C | Height: 7-0

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 5 (5)

Long, talented defender was second in the country in blocked shots per game last season (3.7) and fourth in total blocks (111), drawing comparisons to Rudy Gobert and Clint Capela

No. 6: Michael Porter Jr. | Orlando Magic

Missouri | Position: SF | Height: 6-10

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 7 (5)

Teams will be wary of his back injury which limited him to just three games at Mizzou, but he can shoot, which with his length, makes him a valuable weapon

No. 7: Wendell Carter Jr. | Chicago Bulls

Duke | Position: PF/C | Height: 6-10

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 8 (4)

Do-it-all big man draws comparisons to Al Horford; has huge hands that allow him to catch and score in the paint, while also having the physicality to finish through contact

No. 8: Trae Young | Cleveland Cavaliers

Oklahoma | Position: PG | Height: 6-2

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 6 (4)

Talented scorer led the nation in scoring (27.4) and assists (8.7) per game, but will need to improve on defensive end in NBA

No. 9: Collin Sexton | New York Knicks

Alabama | Position: PG | Height: 6-2

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 9, 11 (4)

Was second in SEC in scoring (19.2 per game); his toughness and competitive streak are viewed highly by pro evaluators, even drawing comparisons to Russell Westbrook

No. 10: Mikal Bridges | Philadelphia 76ers

Villanova | Position: SG/SF | Height: 6-7

Status: Junior

Most Common: 10 (7)

The All-Big East first team selection who helped Villanova to a title is considered one of the best two-way prospects, drawing comparisons to Kawhi Leonard

No. 11: Kevin Knox | Charlotte Hornets

Kentucky | Position: SF/PF | Height: 6-9

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 11 (4)

Showed potential as a perimeter threat and was an all-SEC freshmen team selection while starting 37 games at Kentucky

No. 12: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | LA Clippers

Kentucky | Position: PG | Height: 6-6

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 8, 12, 13 (2)

Fluid athlete with elite size who came on strong late in his freshman season at Kentucky; changes speeds well and can get above the rim with a head of steam

No. 13: Lonnie Walker IV | LA Clippers

Miami | Position: SG | Height: 6-4

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 13 (3)

A long, explosive, athletic shooting guard who put points on the board in bunches from the perimeter and on the break

No. 14: Miles Bridges | Denver Nuggets

Michigan State | Position: SF/PF | Height: 6-7

Status: Sophomore

Most Common: 14 (4)

The first team all-Big 10 selection averaged 17 points and 7 rebounds a game for the Spartans and was a finalist for the Wooden Award

Last updated: June 20, 2018, 1 a.m. ET

MOCK DRAFTS

ESPN.com

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Luka Doncic

4. Jaren Jackson Jr.

5. Mohamed Bamba

6. Wendell Carter Jr.

7. Michael Porter Jr.

8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

9. Kevin Knox

10. Mikal Bridges

11. Collin Sexton

12. Trae Young

13. Jerome Robinson

14. Miles Bridges

Last updated: June 19

The Ringer

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Luka Doncic

4. Michael Porter Jr.

5. Jaren Jackson Jr.

6. Mohamed Bamba

7. Kevin Knox

8. Wendell Carter Jr.

9. Trae Young

10. Mikal Bridges

11. Collin Sexton

12. Miles Bridges

13. Lonnie Walker IV

14. Zhaire Smith

Last updated: June 13

NBADraft.net

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Jaren Jackson Jr.

4. Luka Doncic

5. Mohamed Bamba

6. Trae Young

7. Wendell Carter Jr.

8. Michael Porter Jr.

9. Kevin Knox

10. Mikal Bridges

11. Collin Sexton

12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

13. Jerome Robinson

14. Zhaire Smith

Last updated: June 20

SI.com

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Jaren Jackson Jr.

4. Luka Doncic

5. Michael Porter Jr.

6. Mohamed Bamba

7. Wendell Carter Jr.

8. Trae Young

9. Collin Sexton

10. Mikal Bridges

11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

12. Lonnie Walker IV

13. Robert Williams

14. Kevin Knox

Last updated: June 20

USA Today

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Luka Doncic

4. Michael Porter Jr.

5. Mohamed Bamba

6. Jaren Jackson Jr.

7. Wendell Carter Jr.

8. Trae Young

9. Collin Sexton

10. Mikal Bridges

11. Kevin Knox

12. Lonnie Walker IV

13. Robert Williams

14. Miles Bridges

Last updated: June 20

NBA.com

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Luka Doncic

3. Marvin Bagley III

4. Trae Young

5. Jaren Jackson Jr.

6. Collin Sexton

7. Mohamed Bamba

8. Wendell Carter Jr.

9. Michael Porter Jr.

10. Mikal Bridges

11. Kevin Knox

12. Lonnie Walker IV

13. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

14. Miles Bridges

Last updated: June 18

Bleacher Report

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Mohamed Bamba

4. Luka Doncic

5. Jaren Jackson Jr.

6. Trae Young

7. Michael Porter Jr.

8. Wendell Carter Jr.

9. Mikal Bridges

10. Lonnie Walker IV

11. Miles Bridges

12. Collin Sexton

13. Robert Williams

14. Kevin Knox

Last updated: June 11

Net Scouts

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Luka Doncic

4. Jaren Jackson Jr.

5. Mohamed Bamba

6. Wendell Carter Jr.

7. Michael Porter Jr.

8. Trae Young

9. Collin Sexton

10. Miles Bridges

11. Kevin Knox

12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

13. Robert Williams

14. Mikal Bridges

Last updated: June 19

CBS Sports

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Luka Doncic

4. Jaren Jackson Jr.

5. Mohamed Bamba

6. Trae Young

7. Michael Porter Jr.

8. Wendell Carter Jr.

9. Collin Sexton

10. Mikal Bridges

11. Kevin Knox

12. Robert Williams

13. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

14. Miles Bridges

Last updated: June 20

Basketball Insiders

1. Deandre Ayton

2. Marvin Bagley III

3. Luka Doncic

4. Jaren Jackson Jr.

5. Wendell Carter Jr.

6. Trae Young

7. Michael Porter Jr.

8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

9. Mikal Bridges

10. Kevin Knox

11. Collin Sexton

12. Mohamed Bamba

13. Aaron Holiday

14. Lonnie Walker IV

Last updated: June 20

* * *

ESPN Insider: Jonathan Givony

SI.com: Jeremy Woo

Net Scouts: Carl Berman

Bleacher Report: Jonathan Wasserman

Basketball Insiders: Steve Kyler

CBS Sports: Gary Parrish

NBA.com: David Aldridge