Which new NBA rule change will have the biggest impact this season?

Warriors coach Steve Kerr talks with referee Ed Malloy during the 2023 NBA playoffs.

NBA basketball returns Oct. 24. We are counting down the days like the seconds on a shot clock — literally, that’s what we’re doing. As of Oct. 1, our writers will list 24 storylines heading into the 2023-24 NBA season.

A new storyline will drop each day. Here is No. 6:

What’s the more significant rule change this season: the new in-game flopping violation, or the addition of a second coach’s challenge?

This one’s easy: the second challenge will be a bigger deal this season and for years to come, compared to what we’ve seen since the rule was tried in 2019-20 and codified a year later.

Calling flops more stringently and awarding a technical free throw with each occurrence is significant. It will wring out some of the ludicrous, theatrical offensive and defensive maneuvers intended to fool referees, with coach and peer pressure now brought to bear on guys who cost their teams a point each time.

But as with many new rules and interpretations, players will adapt. A flurry of such calls this fall could slow to a trickle by January, at which point the flopping rule will have accomplished its mission. Most violation rules exist to be implicit and avoided, not to be actively tested and flexed.

Meanwhile, the opportunity to challenge a second call is like handing these coaches a buy-one, get-one card at Pebble Beach. It all but guarantees more green lights in most games, alleviating the tendency to hold back a lone challenge for a pivotal moment in the fourth quarter.

Most NBA games have averaged between 0.5 and 0.6 challenges per game with a success rate of about 50%. That’s a lot of coaches on a lot of nights freed up to challenge again.

Granted, a coach must be right on his first challenge to even get the second. And the second will cost his team a timeout regardless (a timeout is restored with a successful first challenge). But now he may feel less torn between questioning an early third or fourth foul on his star player vs. reviewing a late out-of-bounds play.

We’ve already seen and felt the effect of successful challenges in arenas, how crowds can be energized or deflated depending on the verdict. The referees could get a little cranky having as many as three calls in a game questioned and overturned. But if the goal truly is to get as many right as possible, the games should benefit, despite extra stoppages.

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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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