NBA Playoffs: What to expect in Celtics-Heat series
This year’s first round will feature a rematch of the previous two Eastern Conference Finals. The first game will take place in Boston on Sunday.
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Following one of the finest regular NBA seasons ever, the Boston Celtics are unequivocally favored to make it to the NBA Finals from the Eastern Conference. Their primary competitors – Milwaukee, New York, and Philadelphia – are on the opposite side of the bracket, grappling either with injuries or a star player striving to bounce back from a lengthy hiatus.
The Celtics’ first-round opponent has also been shorthanded. The Miami Heat were without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier on Friday, and while they managed to beat the Chicago Bulls by 21 points to earn the No. 8 seed, they aren’t expected to have Butler for this series.
Boston swept the three regular-season meetings, with its 143 points on just 96 possessions (149 per 100) on Jan. 25 being the most efficient offensive performance the Heat have allowed in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.
Series schedule
This is how to view the Celtics vs. Heat series:
All times Eastern Standard Time
- Game 1: Heat vs. Celtics, Sunday, April 21 (1 p.m., ABC)
- Game 2: Heat vs. Celtics, Wednesday, April 24 (7 p.m., TNT)
- Game 3: Celtics vs. Heat, Saturday, April 27 (6 p.m., TNT)
- Game 4: Celtics vs. Heat, Monday, April 29 (TBD, TBD)
- Game 5: Heat vs. Celtics, Wednesday, May 1 (TBD, TBD)*
- Game 6: Celtics vs. Heat, Friday, May 3 (TBD, TBD)*
- Game 7: Heat vs. Celtics, Sunday, May 5 (TBD, TBD)*
* = If necessary
Top storyline
TCB. These teams have a history, with this being their fourth playoff meeting in the last five years. And we’ve learned that we should never dismiss the Heat, who beat the top two seeds in the East (including Boston) last year on their way to the Finals. If any Eastern Conference opponent can put some doubt in the Celtics’ heads, it’s this one.
Primarily, this series focuses on the Celtics’ competence in handling their affairs. They secured top two positions on both ends of the court and boasted the fifth-largest point difference in NBA history. They are in good health, and if they perform anywhere near their best, the series should conclude quickly. They must start Game 1 with full force and maintain that intensity until they accomplish their goal.
Keep your eyes on
Zone defense. For the second straight season, the Heat led the league in the percentage of defensive possessions (13.4%) on which they played zone, according to Synergy tracking. The Celtics’ offense ranked seventh with 1.12 points per possession against zone this season, though they didn’t see much of the Miami zone (16 total possessions) over the three regular-season meetings.
During last year’s conference finals, they managed to score a meager 85 points from 112 zone possessions (0.76 per possession) over seven games. They should anticipate a similar scenario in this series, as the zone could hinder the Celtics’ drive-and-kick game, prevent them from entering the paint, and force them into late-clock situations.
Naturally, the Celtics lacked Kristaps Porzingis last year. There is no one else in the league who can outperform the 7-foot-2 big man when it comes to shooting over a zone. He is aiming to win a playoff series for the first time in his career.
1 more thing to watch for each team
For Boston: Bench play. We knew the Celtics had the best top six in the league. We didn’t know they would be at their best with Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard on the floor. Their aggregate bench NetRtg (point differential per 100 possessions) with reserves on the floor was plus-6.2, the best mark for any team in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.
Opponents in the playoffs will undoubtedly target Hauser and Pritchard. If they can maintain their defensive integrity, the Celtics can continue to control the game during their time on the floor and increase leads while their star players rest.
For Miami: Secondary creation. The Heat probably won’t have Butler, but they will have Tyler Herro, who missed (almost all of) last year’s playoffs and led the way with 24 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in Miami’s Play-In victory over Chicago on Friday.
But they’ll need somebody else to create offense off the dribble in order to make this series interesting. That could be Rozier, who’s missed the last six games with neck spasms. It could be Caleb Martin, who was almost the MVP of the conference finals last year, averaging 19.3 points on 60% shooting over the seven games. It could be rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr., who’s averaged 18.5 points (on 50% shooting) and 5.5 assists over the last four. And they’ll probably need great series from at least two of those three guys.
1 key number to know
-8.3% – Jrue Holiday had a usage rate of just 16.1% this season, the lowest mark of his career and down from 24.4% in 2022-23. That (-8.3%) was the biggest drop, by a wide margin, among 209 players that played at least 1,000 minutes in each of the last two seasons. The two-time All-Star has embraced a smaller role in a stacked starting lineup with a new team, and it’s worked for both him and the Celtics.
Holiday had his most efficient scoring season of his 15-year career, registering a true shooting percentage of 59.7%. The Celtics had the most efficient offense in NBA history, scoring 122.2 points per 100 possessions. And Holiday wasn’t the only guy sacrificing shots, with both Jaylen Brown (from 30.7% to 28.3%) and Jayson Tatum (from 31.9% to 29.6%) also seeing not-insignificant drops in usage rate.
The Celtics ranked second offensively last season and had the second most improved offense this season. They’re more dangerous in part because they’re more balanced.
The pick
Celtics in four. The Heat have proven to be a resilient group, and the Celtics struggled against the zone in last year’s conference finals. And Boston has some recent postseason demons beyond that.
The Celtics, being a superior team, especially given Butler’s probable absence, should have an easy time against Miami. Despite Miami’s success in neutralizing the Bulls’ 19th-ranked offense to reach this point, they are now up against a more formidable opponent. The Celtics are a well-oiled machine and should comfortably make it to the conference semifinals for the seventh time in eight years.
