Finals Alterations: 3 potential adjustments heading into Game 5

The Miami Heat enter Game 5 on the road (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) with their season on the line. Can they defy the odds one more time and keep this miracle run going and force a Game 6 back in Miami?

After being torched by dueling 30-point triple-doubles from the Denver Nuggets’ dynamic duo of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic in Game 3, the Heat limited Murray and the Joker to a combined 38 points in Game 4. By blitzing the Murray-Jokic two-man game, the Heat forced someone else to beat them, and huge performances from Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown did just that.

Still, the Heat could not generate enough offense to counter the contributions of the entire Nuggets roster. Now they face only their second elimination game of the postseason, and once again will have to win on the road to extend their season. They did so against the Celtics in Boston, but what will it take for them to do it Monday in Denver? 

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1. If Tyler Herro returns, can he give Heat offensive boost?

The return of Tyler Herro has been teased throughout the series, but the guard has not yet been cleared to play by the Heat medical staff. That same pattern may hold true for Game 5 and it’s understandable that the Heat want to be careful not to rush Herro back too soon. At the same time, their season is on the line and his ability to create offense is much needed as Miami tries to keep up with Denver in this series.

In Game 2, Miami’s only win of the series, the Heat scored 111 points to edge out the Nuggets by three. In their three losses, they have been held to 93, 94 and 95 points and have been outscored by 11, 15 and 13 points, respectively.

During the regular season, 43 total players averaged at least 20 points per game while meeting the 58 games played minimum to qualify among league leaders. The Heat (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Herro) were one of three teams with three 20+ ppg scorers.

In terms of the disparity between the leading scorer and third-leading scorer, Miami had only 2.8 ppg separate their leading scorer Butler (22.9 ppg) and their third-leading scorer Herro (20.1 ppg). That 2.8 differential between the first and third scorer was the smallest among the 16 teams that made the playoffs. Throughout the season, the Heat did not have one player to carry the offensive load, it was a shared burden, and it resulted in Miami being the lowest-scoring team in the league at 109.5 ppg.

With Herro going down in Game 1 of Miami’s first-round series against Milwaukee, Butler was able to carry the Heat offense against the top-seeded Bucks with 37.6 ppg that was both remarkable and unsustainable. In the three series since, Butler’s scoring average has come back down to earth: 24.6 ppg vs. New York in the Eastern Conference semifinals, 24.7 ppg vs. Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, and now 21.8 against the Nuggets in the Finals.

Against the Nuggets, Adebayo has been Miami’s most consistent scorer (22.3 ppg), with Butler second at 21.8 ppg, followed by Gabe Vincent third at 12.8 ppg. Vincent averaged 21 points through the first two games of the Finals, but has scored a total of just nine points in the past two games.

The Heat need offense, and if Herro is able to play, he can provide another scoring threat for the Nuggets to have to contend with. And he’d be returning in the highest-stakes game of the season. Miami has thrived as a “nobody believes in us” and “backs against the wall” type of team. Coach Erik Spolestra has said throughout the postseason that the Heat like to do things the hard way. And it doesn’t get much harder than returning to the court after a near two-month absence and trying to be the difference between keeping the season alive and heading for the offseason.

If Herro is still unable to go, will Spoelstra alter his substitution patterns if his shooters continue to struggle? In Game 4, starters Max Strus and Gabe Vincent combined to shoot just 1-of-10 from the field and 0-7 from 3-point range and both played under 20 minutes as Spoelstra leaned on Kyle Lowry (13 points, 3-for-7 FG, 1-for-4 on 3-pointers) and Duncan Robinson (12 points, 5-for-7 FG, 2-for-4 3 pointers) off the bench.

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2. Can Miami make more open 3-pointers with increased ball movement?

In their Game 2 win, the Heat generated 10 “wide-open” 3-point shots (closest defender at least six feet away) and another 20 “open” 3-point shots (closest defender four to six feet away). It was the second straight game that Miami had 30 open/wide-open 3-point shots and after making only 11 of them in Game 1, the Heat made 16 in Game 2 to help them earn the win.

Since then, Miami’s open/wide-open looks from 3-point range have decreased with each game — 25 looks in Game 3 and just 19 in Game 4 — and so has their ability to knock down these good looks from deep, making 10-for-25 (40%) in Game 3 and just 7-for-19 (36.8%) in Game 4.

For the Heat to have a chance of keeping their season alive, they must create more open 3s, and they have to knock them down at a much higher rate than they did in the past two games (17-for-44, 36.8% combined).

Another key stat from Miami’s Game 2 win was their 327 total passes made – their highest mark of the series, and second-highest mark of the playoffs. The Heat are 5-2 this postseason (including 1-1 in the Finals) when they make more than 290 passes.

Of their 17 3-pointers made in Game 2, 16 of them were either open or wide-open looks and 15 were assisted, including three that included a secondary assist, which is a key indicator of strong ball movement and turning good shots into great shots.

The Heat also took advantage of mistakes by the Denver defense on pick-and-roll action with the screener slipping out for an open look beyond the 3-point line while two defenders stayed with the ball. The Nuggets have done a good job of cleaning up those miscues in the two games since, but the Heat must capitalize on any Nuggets mistakes moving forward.

The team that has led each game in assists (and assist percentage) has won each game of this series. The Heat can help themselves rack up more assists on Monday by looking to make the extra pass and avoid playing hero ball and looking to win the game by themselves.

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3. Can the Nuggets manufacture desperation to match a team on the ropes?

The Nuggets have their first of three attempts to close out the Heat and claim their first NBA title on their home court on Monday in Game 5. One lesson learned from this postseason is not to count out the Miami Heat, who went from nearly being eliminated in the AT&T Play-In Tournament to running through the Eastern Conference playoffs as underdogs every step of the way. There will be no laying down just because they’re facing a 3-1 deficit that only one team has ever rallied from in 36 tries (2016 Cavaliers).

The hardest game to win in a series is the close-out game because the team that is trailing will play with a sense of desperation that is nearly impossible to match by a team that will still have more games to play should they lose. It’s easy to say that the Nuggets need to treat Game 5 like it’s Game 7. But it’s easier said than done to match a team that simply can’t afford to lose at all costs.

The Nuggets are 3-1 in close-out games this postseason, but most of the games have been tightly contested. Outside of their 25-point blowout of the Suns in the semifinals, the Nuggets had wins by two points (over the Lakers in the West Finals) and three points (over the Wolves in the opening round), with the latter coming after a six-point overtime loss to Minnesota in their first close-out game of the playoffs.

In their four close-out games, the Nuggets have averaged 114.5 points, matching their overall average for the playoffs, a mark that is 7.2 ppg higher than their average through four games of the Finals (107.3).

Nikola Jokic recorded a triple-double in each of Denver’s three close-out wins, and has averaged 33.3 points, 13 rebounds and 10.8 assists, while shooting 49% from the field and 48% from 3-point range when the Nuggets have a chance to clinch a series.

The Nuggets have five more players that have averaged double figures in close-out games this postseason, led by Jamal Murray’s 26.3 ppg, followed by Game 4 hero Aaron Gordon (14.5), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (12.3), Michael Porter Jr (12.0) and Bruce Brown (11.0). Can the Nuggets match these numbers in their first shot at capturing the Larry O’Brien Trophy on Monday?