5 stats to know for Warriors-Bucks primetime matchup on ABC

This week’s NBA Saturday Primetime on ABC matchup features the past two NBA title winners as the 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks visit the defending champion Golden State Warriors at Chase Center (8:30 p.m. ET).

Here are five stats to know about this marquee matchup:

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1. Home Warriors vs. road Bucks

The Warriors enter Saturday’s game having won six games in a row at home (and 10 of their last 11), while the Bucks have won nine games in a row on the road — the longest road win streak in the NBA this season.

The past eight games have been emblematic of Golden State’s year. They swept a five-game homestand between Feb. 24 and March 3, then followed it up by getting swept on a three-game road trip between March 5 and March 9, which pushed their road losing streak to eight games.

For the season, the Warriors are now 27-7 (.794, fifth in the NBA) at home and 7-26 (.212, tied for 27th in the NBA) on the road.

The .582 difference between their home and road winning percentage would be one of the largest in NBA history.

The difference in defensive efficiency between the Warriors at home (108.1, third in the NBA) and on the road (119.3, 28th in the NBA) is perplexing. The largest disparity comes at the 3-point line.

At home, the Warriors hold their opponents to 32.3% shooting from 3-point range – the lowest percentage allowed by any team in their home arena.

On the road, the Warriors allow their opponents to shoot 40.7% from three – the second-highest percentage allowed on the road of any team.

As great as the Warriors have been at home, they host a Bucks team that has been one of the league’s top road teams all season long. Milwaukee is looking for their 10th consecutive win on the road as they begin a three-game road trip. Their franchise record for consecutive road wins is 11, set during the 1980-81 season.

At 20-12 on the road, the Bucks are tied with the Celtics for the best road record in the NBA this season. Milwaukee’s defense has been steady between home and road, but their offense has dipped from 117.2 (seventh) at home to 109.7 (24th) on the road.

One big key to Milwaukee’s road success has been their ability to win close games in opposing arenas. The Bucks are 5-1 (.833) in road games decided by five points or less, trailing only Denver and Philadelphia (both at 7-1, .875) for the highest win percentage in such games. By contrast, the Warriors are a league-worst 0-6 under those circumstances.

Best and worst win percentage in road games decided by 5 points or less

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2. With and without Giannis

Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss his third straight game tonight due to a sore right hand.  Antetokounmpo sat out of Milwaukee’s last two games – Tuesday’s win at Orlando with a non-COVID illness and Thursday’s win over Brooklyn with the injured hand.

By winning both of those games, the Bucks improved to 9-5 (.643) in 14 games without Giannis in the lineup this season. It’s a testament to Milwaukee’s depth. If we took only the games that Giannis has missed this season, the Bucks’ .643 win percentage would still be the fourth-best in the NBA.

Against Orlando, it was Brook Lopez (26 points), Khris Middleton and Jevon Carter (24 each) who stepped up to fill the void left by the two-time MVP. And against the Nets, it was Lopez again (24 points, 10 rebounds, career-high nine blocks) and Bobby Portis (season-high 28 points) that helped the Bucks win for the 19th time in their last 20 games.

Of course, the Bucks are even better – 39-13 (.750) – with Giannis in the lineup. Antetokounmpo is averaging a career-best 31.2 points (fourth in the league), 11.9 rebounds (second) and 5.5 assists (30th) while shooting 53.9% (22nd) from the field.

If he’s able to maintain these averages, Giannis will join some elite company. He would become third player in league history (and the second in Bucks history) to average at least 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while shooting 50% or better over a full season.

30+ PPG, 10+ RPG, 5+ APG, 50%+ FG seasons, NBA history

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3. Curry looking for first W since returning from injury

After missing a month due to a left leg injury – his second extended absence of the season, following the shoulder injury that kept him out nearly a month from mid-December to mid-January – Stephen Curry returned for the Warriors on March 5 at the beginning of their recent three-game road trip.

While Curry put up Curry numbers – 32 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field, six 3-pointers made per game on 51.4% shooting from deep – the Warriors have gone 0-3 since his return.

Of course, those first three games with Curry back in the fold all came on the road – and we already discussed Golden State’s road woes this season.

Golden State’s loss to Memphis on Thursday dropped the Warriors below .500 (20-21) when Curry is in the lineup this season; they have gone 14-12 in his absence.

The defending champs have had a lack of continuity in their lineups and rotations for much of the season, whether due to injuries, player absences or trades. Even with Curry back, the Warriors are still without Andrew Wiggins, who has missed the last 10 games due to personal reasons. And while the Warriors have shown nothing but support for Wiggins while he’s away, his absence clearly makes an impact.

In the first three games since Curry has returned, the Warriors have used three different starting lineups. Donte DiVincenzo has stepped into Wiggins’ spot alongside Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but Kerr has tried Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga and Kevon Looney in the fifth spot.

When the Warriors are right, their traditional starting five of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and Looney remains the most efficient five-man lineup in the entire league.

There are 77 five-man lineups that have played at least 100 minutes and 10 games together this season. The Warriors’ five leads that group with a net rating of 21.9 in 331 minutes together.

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4. Warriors dropping dimes

The Warriors lead the NBA in both assists per game (29.6) and assist percentage (69.2%) despite not having a player ranked in the top 15 in assists per game. While other teams have a dominant playmaker, the Warriors dish out their assists as a collective.

Green leads the Warriors at 6.8 APG, making him one of three bigs to lead their team in assists along with Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis (7.0) and Denver’s Nikola Jokic (10.0).

In addition to leading all teams in traditional assists, the Warriors also rack up the most secondary assists at five per game.

A secondary assist – often referred to as hockey assist – is the pass that leads directly to an assist and is an indicator of a team with great ball movement. Take a look at this play from Golden State’s game against Oklahoma City on Tuesday for an example.

ball movement

@NBCSAuthentic pic.twitter.com/IhGX8IVZ2k

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 8, 2023

Poole has the ball at the top of the key and gets a screen from Looney. Poole then splits the OKC hedge with a pass to a rolling Looney down the lane. As the defense collapses on Looney, he sends a pass to the left corner to an open DiVincenzo. Josh Giddey rotates off Thompson to prevent an open corner three, so DiVincenzo immediately passes to Klay for an open left wing 3-pointer that Thompson hits. Three points for Thompson; assist to DiVincenzo; secondary assist to Looney.

The Warriors lead the NBA in passes made (324.3 per game) by nearly 18 per game over second-ranked Indiana.

The Warriors also lead in catch-and-shoot field goal attempts (32.7 per game), just like the one above to Thompson, who has 237 3-pointers made on the season – second-most in the league behind only Indiana’s Buddy Hield.

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5. Lopez and the Bucks defense

The Bucks enter Saturday’s game ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 109.6 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee owns the lowest opponent effective field goal percentage in the league at 51.3% – 3.3 percentage points lower than the league average of 54.4%.

What makes the Bucks stand out defensively is their ability to limit their opponents from all areas of the court. Not only do they rank second in overall opponent field goal percentage (45.1%) and opponent 3-point percentage (34.3%), they rank in the top 10 in nearly every zone of the court.

• Restricted Area: 64.4% allowed (7th lowest)
• Rim Protection: 62.1% allowed (2nd lowest)
• In the Paint (Non-Restricted Area): 43.1% (12th lowest)
• Mid-Range: 39.8% (3rd lowest)
• Left Corner 3: 33.5% (1st lowest)
• Right Corner 3: 37.2% (9th lowest)
• All Corner 3s: 35.9% (3rd lowest)
• Above the Break 3s: 34.4% (10th lowest)

The Bucks have held their opponents to under 40% shooting 13 times this season – the most of any team in the league – and are a perfect 13-0 in those games.

Brook Lopez led the latest edition of the Defensive Player Ladder in February and, as we’ve moved into March, his defensive metrics continue to stand out. Coming off a career-best nine blocks in Milwaukee ‘s win over Brooklyn, Lopez is averaging a career-best 2.5 blocks per game, which ranks third in the league.

He helms Milwaukee’s second-ranked rim protection efforts. The team has held opponents to 50.9% shooting at the basket, while contesting the second-most shots at the basket (503). The Warriors’ Green sits just above Lopez in the rim protection rankings, allowing just 48.2% shooting at the basket.

In addition to the 7.7 shots per game that Lopez defends at the rim, he affects more around the court. He leads the NBA in contested shots (17.1 per game) by a huge margin. The separation between Lopez in first and Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton (11.9 per game) in second is equal to the separation between Claxton and 51st ranked Thomas Bryant.

Since Hustle Stats began being tracked in 2015-16, Lopez is the only player to have contested an average of at least 17 shots per game. This will mark the fourth time he’s done it — all with the Bucks. He contested 19.3 shots per game in 2018-19, 19.0 in 2019-20, 17.0 in 2020-21 and now 17.1 in 2022-23.