East finals notebook: What to expect from Bucks, Hawks without their stars
Lou Williams (right) and Khris Middleton will have increased opportunities if Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo are out.
With the Eastern Conference finals tied at two games apiece, Game 5 in Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT) may be played with both teams missing their best player. The Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young (right foot bone bruise) is listed as questionable, while the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo (hyperextended left knee) is out.
The Hawks have the knowledge that they just won Game 4 without Young on Tuesday, registering their best defensive game of the playoffs (88 points allowed on 93 defensive possessions). They took a 10-point lead on the play that Antetokounmpo was injured and then blew things open.
The Bucks know that they still have two guys — Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton — who can make plays. They fell apart after Antetokounmpo got hurt on Tuesday, but will be better prepared for playing without the former two-time Kia MVP.
Here are some notes and film in preparation for Game 5.
1. The no-star numbers
The Hawks have played 180 playoff minutes with Bogdan Bogdanovic and/or Kevin Huerter on the floor without Young, and they’ve scored the same number of points as their opponents (360) in those 180 minutes, with ugly offense on both ends of the floor.
Hawks efficiency in the playoffs
| On floor | MIN | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young | 568 | 111.2 | 111.4 | -0.2 | -2 |
| Bogdanovic and/or Huerter, no Young | 180 | 96.8 | 95.7 | +1.0 | 0 |
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
The Bucks have played 120 playoff minutes with Holiday and/or Middleton on the floor without Antetokounmpo, and they’ve been outscored by 11 points in those 120 minutes, worse both offensively and defensively than they’ve been in Antetokounmpo’s 561 minutes.
Bucks efficiency in the playoffs
| On floor | MIN | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antetokounmpo | 561 | 109.8 | 101.8 | +8.0 | +100 |
| Holiday and/or Middleton, no Antetokounmpo | 120 | 104.9 | 108.7 | -3.8 | -11 |
2. Hawks on offense: More ball movement, more size
The Hawks’ much bigger improvement from their losses in Games 2 and 3 (more than 123 points allowed per 100 possessions) was on defense, but Game 4 was also their best offensive game of the series.
Without their primary ball-handler, the ball moved more. After averaging 269 passes per 24 minutes of possession and recording assists on only 43% of their field goals through the first three games, they registered 315 passes per 24 minutes of possession and 26 assists on 43 field goals (60%) on Tuesday.
Late in the third quarter, the Bucks were switching all screens with Bobby Portis at center. That got Jeff Teague matched up with John Collins, who took Teague into the post. Portis came with a double-team and Cam Reddish had an open corner 3-pointer two passes later …
The Hawks set 78 ball screens (on 94 possessions) in Game 4, their lowest total of the series — but not a huge drop from the 86 and 88 that they set in Games 2 and 3, respectively. One advantage of having Bogdanovic or Huerter run pick-and-roll is that they’re bigger than Young.
That size difference showed up on the fifth possession of the third quarter, when Huerter ran a pick-and-roll with Clint Capela. Lopez was in a drop coverage, but the higher (Game 2) version, rather than the deep drop that he played in Game 1. The 6-7 Huerter drove at him, but then took a step-back into a fadeaway jumper from inside the foul line over Lopez’s outstretched arms. It was a shot that Young probably couldn’t get to at 6-foot-1 …
3. Bucks on defense: He’s a former DPOY too
Assuming he doesn’t play, Antetokounmpo will be missed more on defense, where his size and length are critical to what the Bucks do. Opponents have shot just 25-for-51 (49.0%) at the rim when he’s been there to protect it, the second-best mark among 24 players who’ve defended at least 35 shots at the rim in the playoffs.
On the Hawks’ second possession of the third quarter of Game 4, Capela got behind Brook Lopez on a roll to the rim, but Antetokounmpo came from the weak side and blocked Capela’s dunk attempt …
On the Bucks’ first defensive possession after Antetokounmpo’s injury, Pat Connaughton was the weak-side defender as Capela rolled to the rim. He didn’t get there, Capela threw down a lob dunk, and Lopez immediately looked at Connaughton as if he was the guilty party …
Connaughton seems the likely starter if Antetokounmpo can’t play. No matter what the Bucks do, they’ll be downsizing, which gives Collins and Danilo Gallinari more defenders to take into the post, where they’ve combined to shoot an amazing 17-for-23 (74%) in this series.
The Bucks did play a little bit of zone late in the third quarter on Tuesday. The Hawks recognized it quickly and did not look uncomfortable against it.
4. Bucks on offense: More Holiday and Middleton
Holiday (6.5 minutes per game) and Middleton (4.8) lead the Bucks in time of possession, so they should have less of an adjustment than the Hawks, with Young (8.6 minutes per game) having had the ball more than twice as much as any other teammate. But Antetokounmpo has been the screener on 75 (44%) of the 172 ball screens (43 per game) that have been set for Holiday and Middleton in the series, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Also, they’ve both struggled to shoot off the dribble, combining for an effective field goal percentage of 36.8% on pull-up jumpers. Holiday (4-for-16) and Middleton (2-for-19) are a combined 6-for-35 (17%) on pull-up 3s over the four games.
They both shot better than 40% on pull-up 3-pointers in the regular season (both attempting fewer than Antetokounmpo, though), so that shooting can turn around. We obviously saw late in Game 3 that Middleton can get hot, and he got in another little groove (with the Bucks down 20) late in the third quarter of Game 4.
5. Hawks on defense: Know the targets
The Hawks held the Bucks to just 80 points on 81 possessions before garbage time set in on Tuesday. And what they did best was protect the rim, holding the Bucks to just 18 field goal attempts in the restricted area, down from an average of 23.7 through the first three games.
Their transition was much better than it was in Game 3, and they also showed Antetokounmpo more bodies when he attacked the paint one-on-one …
If Antetokounmpo is out, the Hawks’ need for rim protection is reduced. He’s accounted for 46% (124/271) of the Bucks’ buckets in the restricted area, with more than three times as many buckets as anybody else on the team.
But with Antetokounmpo out, the Bucks, in choosing who’s setting screens, could focus more on the screener’s defender than the screener himself. And in that case, they’d likely target Gallinari and Lou Williams.
With Young out on Tuesday, Williams was more of a target than he had been previously, sometimes with a “pistol” screen along the sideline. Early in the third quarter and after an Atlanta bucket, Holiday got a wide-open 3 when Bogdanovic switched onto the screener (P.J. Tucker), while Williams hedged and recovered …
A few minutes later and on the other side of the floor, Williams was able to stop the ball and hold up Holiday for Huerter to recover while Collins helped on Tucker’s roll to the basket. The ball ended up in the hands of Lopez, who, for some reason, tried to put the ball on the floor …
The Bucks made more of those mental mistakes in Game 4, while the Hawks came with better effort. No matter who’s playing, Game 5 should elicit urgency from both teams. The Finals are just two wins away.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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