NBA Storylines: February’s strength of schedule rankings

As we enter the month of February, the Boston Celtics are the only team vying for a playoff or Play-In Tournament spot that has more than one game of cushion between themselves and the teams directly ahead and behind them. So there are more than 20 teams that really need to play well this month.

It’s a leap year, so we get an extra day of February basketball. Here’s a schedule breakdown for the next 29 days.

Note: A rest-advantage game (or rest-disadvantage game) is one where one team played the day/night before, but the other (the team with the advantage) did not. Teams are 112-72 (.609) in rest-advantage games thus far this season, 65-32 (.670) at home and 47-40 (.540) on the road, through Jan. 31.

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February strength of schedule

Here’s a look at the February schedule for every team, sorted from the toughest (regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage) to the easiest:

OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage (as of Jan. 31)
B2B = Back-to-backs (includes the Cavs’ Jan. 31-Feb. 1 back-to-back)
H | R = Home games | Road games

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Eastern Conference notes

• The Hawks are one of two undefeated teams (3-0) in rest advantage games and one of two teams — the Blazers are the other — with a league-high five February games against teams playing the second game of a back-to-back. That includes both times the Hawks are playing the same game of a back-to-back (including Saturday vs. the Warriors), so they don’t have any rest-disadvantage games this month.

• The Celtics have one of the league’s easiest stretches between now and the All-Star break, with only one of their seven games against a team that enters the month with a winning record. And that’s against the Heat, who had lost seven straight games before beating the Kings on Wednesday. They’ll finish the month with games against the Knicks and Sixers.

• The Nets are one of two teams — the Bulls are the other — with a league-high seven February games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 defensively. That includes five games against teams in the top five, with a home-and-home set against the second-ranked Celtics leading into the All-Star break.

• The Hornets‘ only stretch of five games in seven days this season is Feb. 4-10. They’re just 1-6 in the second game of back-to-backs but will be hosting the Grizzlies at the end of that five-in-seven stretch.

• The Bulls rank 23rd offensively and will have the toughest month regarding opposing defenses, with seven of their 10 games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 on that end of the floor. That includes two games against the third-ranked Cavs.

• The Cavs are one of three teams with four February back-to-backs, and their first five games after the All-Star break are their first of two stretches of five games in seven nights (the second is March 5-11). But they have the league’s easiest February schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage. Five teams have fewer games against teams that enter the month with winning records, but two of the Cavs’ five are against the banged-up Sixers, and six of their other eight are against teams with fewer than 20 wins.

• The Pistons still need three more wins to avoid finishing with the worst record in NBA history, and their February schedule (third toughest regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage) doesn’t do them many favors. Their three games against teams that enter the month with losing records (the Blazers, Lakers and Bulls) are all on the road.

• The Pacers have the league’s biggest differential between their record with rest (25-14) and their record in the second games of back-to-backs (2-7). They begin February with a back-to-back (at New York on Thursday, vs. Sacramento on Friday), but will have just three more over the final 10 weeks of the season.

• In seven of the Heat‘s last eight games of February, either Miami (four times) or its opponent (three times) will have a rest advantage. The Heat are just 1-3 in rest-advantage games thus far and their four this month are road games in Milwaukee, New Orleans, Sacramento and Denver.

• The Bucks‘ first five games of February are their only stretch of five games in seven days this season. They’re currently five games into a stretch where they’re playing 11 of 15 against teams that currently have winning records, but they do have three games against the Hornets this month.

• The Knicks lost their first two home games this season, but have since won 17 of 20 at Madison Square Garden, and they enter February having won eight straight overall. They have a league-high nine home games this month, with the most important of those being a visit from the Pacers on Thursday.

• The Magic have the league’s second-biggest differential between their record with rest (23-15) and their record in the second games of back-to-backs (2-8). They have two back-to-backs this month, hosting the Knicks (Feb. 14) and visiting the Hawks (Feb. 25) in the second game.

• The Sixers are tied with the Suns for the fewest games played (they’re 9-11) against teams that enter February with winning records. Only one of their first six games (Monday vs. Dallas) is against that group, but then they’ll play seven straight within the top seven in the Eastern Conference.

• The Raptors will play five of their first six February games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 defensively, with two of those against the seventh-ranked Rockets. The last five games of that stretch (Feb. 4-10) are their second (and final) stretch of five games in seven days.

• The Wizards have the league’s toughest February schedule, with 10 of their 12 games against teams that enter the month with winning records. They’re currently 1-25 against that group.

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Western Conference notes

• The Mavs are tied (with the Bucks and Pelicans) for the fewest interconference games played thus far and are currently 8-4 against the East. They have an East-heavy February, with eight of their 11 games against the opposite conference. Three of their next four games are against the Bucks, Sixers and Knicks.

• The Nuggets have 11 games in February and six of them are against Portland (three) and Sacramento (three). They begin the month with a two-game series (at home) against the Blazers, currently 20-4 (fourth best) against the 14 teams that enter February with losing records.

• The Warriors‘ first five games of February are their only stretch of five games in seven days this season. They’re one of seven teams with a better record in the second games of back-to-backs (5-3) than they have with rest (15-21).

• The Rockets have the toughest February schedule among teams competing for a playoff or Play-In Tournament spot. They’re the only team that’s not in the bottom five of the league (Detroit, Washington, San Antonio, Charlotte and Portland) that doesn’t have a game against the bottom five this month.

• The Clippers are one of two teams — the Nuggets are the other — with just one February game against a team that currently ranks in the top 10 offensively. That’s a visit to Oklahoma City (sixth) in their first game after the All-Star break. Their entire month of February alternates between games against teams that enter the month with losing records and games against teams that enter the month with losing records.

• The Lakers begin the month with games in Boston and New York, but are one of two teams — the Nuggets are the other — with four February games against the bottom five teams in the league. They’re currently 6-1 against that group.

• The Grizzlies have the West’s toughest February schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage but have as many rest-advantage games this month (four) as they’ve had thus far. They’re currently 3-1 with a rest advantage and the first of those is Thursday against the Cavs, who are 1-4 in rest-disadvantage games.

• Through January, Wolves have had 13 rest-advantage games (in which they’re 10-3) and only four rest-disadvantage games (2-2), by far the biggest differential in the league. Things will start to balance out in February, when they have zero and three, respectively. But those three rest-disadvantage games are against the Blazers, Nets and Grizzles, with the last two of those being the second games of home-home back-to-backs.

• The Pelicans have the league’s easiest schedule between now and the All-Star break, with only one of their seven pre-break games coming against a team (the Clippers) that enters the month with a winning record. Of course, the Pelicans are one of three teams — the Celtics and Pacers are the others — with more wins against teams that enter February above .500 (14-11) than they have against teams that are currently below .500 (13-10).

• The Thunder have just completed their season series against the Wolves and Nuggets, and are 6-4 within the top four in the West. They have just one game remaining within that group and it’s their first game after the All-Star break, a home game against the Clippers.

• The Suns are tied for the fewest games played (they’re 9-11) against teams that enter the month with winning records, and only three of their 11 February games are against that group. (Their March-April schedule will be a real test.) They have the league’s easiest February schedule regarding opposing defenses, with their next eight games against teams that rank no higher than 17th defensively.

• The Blazers have the league’s fifth-toughest February schedule regarding cumulative opponent winning percentage but have the fewest games (nine), have the most home-heavy February (seven of nine at the Moda Center), are the only team with no back-to-backs this month, and have a league-high five rest-advantage games.

• The Kings have a league-high seven February games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively. They begin the month in Indiana (the Pacers rank first offensively) and will have three games against the ninth-ranked Nuggets.

• The Spurs have the league’s most road-heavy February, with nine of their 12 games on the road. They’ll host the Pelicans and Cavs before embarking on the annual Rodeo Trip (nine straight road games split by the All-Star break).

• The Jazz have the league’s second-biggest home-road differential regarding winning percentage (15-6 vs. 9-19) and its biggest regarding point differential per 100 possessions (plus-7.1 vs. minus-10.1). And they have a home-heavy February, with eight of their next nine games at the Delta Center. The first three of those are against the Sixers, Bucks and Thunder, though Philly will be without Joel Embiid on Thursday.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X. 

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