NBA DFS picks: Yahoo plays for Wed., Dec. 14

We have our usual robust Wednesday night slate on tap, as 10 games are on the docket. There are several advantageous positional matchups to exploit and a good trio of candidates that may be best to steer clear of due to a combination of circumstances/salary. 

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Guards

Terry Rozier, CHA vs. DET ($33): Rozier continues to be a linchpin for the Hornets amid many injuries, and he’ll come into Wednesday’s favorable matchup having scored over 40 Yahoo points in four of his last six games alone. That’s production that’s befitting of a much higher-salaried player, and it’s also worth noting is now averaging a career-high 22.2 points on a career-high 20.9 shot attempts per contest. The Pistons make for good targets as well, as they’re allowing the second-highest offensive efficiency rating to point guards (30.3), along with 50.4 Yahoo points per game to the position.

Anfernee Simons, POR at SAS ($28): Simons has had a couple of quieter games recently, but he’s also offered a tangible reminder of his upside with performances of 37, 45 and 31 actual points in his last seven games. The breakout guard is taking a whopping 10.3 shot attempts from behind the arc per game and draining them at an impressive 38.8% clip, and he shot 50% from distance in his one prior encounter with San Antonio this season. The Spurs allow an NBA-high 44.8 Yahoo points per game to shooting guards, along with elevated 39.2% three-point shooting.

ALSO CONSIDER: Tyler Herro, MIA at OKC ($29)

Guard to Avoid

Paul George, LAC vs. MIN ($37): There’s naturally no denying George’s talent or ceiling, but the reality is that his salary may be a bit bloated for what he’s most often brought to the table recently. Outside of a spectacular 66.4 Yahoo-point haul against the Wizards two games ago, George has usually been averaging well under a Yahoo point per dollar of salary dating back to mid-November. He’ll have an improving Kawhi Leonard on the floor with him Wednesday to take away some usage as well, and the Timberwolves have been above average against shooting guards this season.

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Forwards

Kawhi Leonard, LAC vs. MIN ($28): Leonard is finally rounding back into form after a mostly uninterrupted stretch of play. The multi-time All-Star will be available Wednesday night and is coming off his best game of the season, having scored 45.8 Yahoo points in 29 minutes against the Celtics on Monday night. The Timberwolves make suitable candidates to keep the good times rolling for Kawhi. Minnesota is allowing the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating to small forwards (23.4) and 38.7% three-point shooting to the position.

Caleb Martin, MIA at OKC ($17): Jimmy Butler will sit out Wednesday’s game for Miami due to knee injury maintenance, which should leave Martin in prime position to benefit at a highly appealing salary. The fourth-year pro has had a couple of difficult shooting performances in the last four games, but he’s still averaging a solid 23.4 Yahoo points per game for the season and is averaging 26.1 Yahoo points per 36 minutes with Butler off the floor. The Thunder has been more susceptible than usual to small forward production of late as well, giving up 46 Yahoo points per game to threes in the last seven games.

Forward to Avoid

Aaron Gordon, DEN vs. WAS ($24): Gordon can likely produce a somewhat adequate performance Wednesday, but you’re likely to find better upside elsewhere in his salary range. The veteran has scored under 30 Yahoo points in four of his last five games, and he’s seen a drop in rebounding production to 5.1 boards per game in the last seven. The Wizards also make for an undesirable matchup as far as power forwards are concerned, as they allow the eighth-lowest offensive efficiency to the position (22.9).

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Centers

Clint Capela, ATL at ORL ($24): Capela makes for an interesting mid-salary/value play that should be well-rested after sitting out Monday due to Achilles soreness. The big man is off the injury report for Wednesday’s game and faces a Magic team that he put up 38.9 Yahoo points in 29 minutes against back on Nov. 30. Capela comes in with eight straight double-doubles overall and has scored over 30 Yahoo points in three of his last four games, making his salary especially appealing versus Orlando’s questionable frontcourt defense.

Mason Plumlee, CHA vs. DET ($18): Plumlee always makes for an intriguing value play, considering his salary can often lag behind his actual ceiling. The veteran big is usually a solid candidate for a double-double and has scored well over 30 Yahoo points in five of his last six games alone, including three straight. The Pistons are allowing the fifth-most Yahoo points to centers in the last 15 games (58.7) and an Eastern Conference-high 55.5 points in the paint per road game, an area of the floor where over 72% of Plumlee’s scoring is emanating from.

Center to Avoid

Nikola Vucevic, CHI vs. NYK ($29): Vucevic is locked into one of the more difficult matchups for centers in the league, as the Knicks are allowing the third-lowest offensive efficiency rating (28.9) to the position while also giving up the third-fewest Yahoo points per game to fives on the season. Vucevic has also seen a downturn in usage this season. His 12.7 shot attempts per game are his lowest figure since the 2013-14 campaign, and he has a pair of sub-30-Yahoo-point tallies in his last four games.

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Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.