NBA DFS Picks: Yahoo strategy for Jan. 18

We’re set for a nine-game slate Wednesday night that features plenty of what should be highly competitive games. There are three contests between teams with .500 or better records and several others featuring teams hovering right around the .500 mark.

As customary, we’ll highlight multiple advantageous positional matchups to exploit at each position for your Yahoo Fantasy lineups, as well as a good trio of candidates that may be best to steer clear of due to a combination of circumstances/salary. 

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Guards

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. IND ($46): Gilgeous-Alexander has unsurprisingly been integral to the Thunder’s recent surge, scoring 42.9 to 63.6 Yahoo points in six of the last seven games while shooting 52.4% over that span. His stat line during that span has been extremely well-rounded, as he’s put up 29.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.4 blocks across 35.3 minutes per contest. He’ll now face a Pacers team still missing Tyrese Haliburton (knee/elbow) in the backcourt and allowing the third-most Yahoo points to PGs (51.4) in the last seven games, three of which Haliburton has missed.

Terry Rozier, CHA at HOU ($27): Rozier carries a palatable salary for a player who’s had 31.3 Yahoo points or more in seven straight games, a stretch that includes tallies of 48.5 and 49.4. The veteran guard is shooting a crisp 49.0%, including 37.3% from behind the arc over that span, while offering his usual solid production in non-scoring categories (4.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals). He’ll be in a prime spot for another big night Wednesday as the Rockets are surrendering 41.8 Yahoo points per game to two-guards, including the fourth-most made 3-pointers (3.59) and most steals (1.98) to the position.   

ALSO CONSIDER: Ja Morant, MEM vs. CLE ($44)

Guard to Avoid

CJ McCollum, NOP vs. MIA ($38): McCollum undeniably has plenty of talent, but he may well carry too high a salary for Wednesday’s matchup. The Heat have been tough on point guards most of the season, ranking in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency rating allowed to the position (25.5) and giving up the fifth-fewest Yahoo points per game to PGs (44.7) as well. Miami could also have Kyle Lowry (knee) back in action Wednesday, which would make McCollum’s path to a game that truly justifies his salary even more challenging.

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Forwards

Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM vs. CLE ($35): Jackson’s salary continues to be very reasonable and largely stationary despite the fact the big man has scored 42.9 to 54.5 Yahoo points in four of the last six games alone, a sample that includes three tallies over 50. Jackson’s shot-blocking prowess is helping prop up his production nicely, as he’s riding a jaw-dropping streak of 14 straight games with multiple swats. Jackson faces a Cavaliers team allowing 49.9% shooting, including 40.8% from 3-point range, to power forwards, along with 43.8 Yahoo points per game to the position.

Jabari Smith Jr., HOU vs. CHA ($20): Smith is enjoying an impressive rookie season that includes averages of 12.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.0 assist across 29.9 minutes per contest. He checks into Wednesday’s favorable matchup averaging 17.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.0 blocks across his last three games. The young big should have a solid chance of outperforming his salary Wednesday as the Hornets are allowing the second-highest offensive efficiency rating to power forwards (29.3), along with the second-most Yahoo points per game to the position (47.3), including the most in the last 15 contests (52.3).

ALSO CONSIDER: Julius Randle, NYK vs. WAS ($44)

Forward to Avoid

John Collins, ATL at DAL ($25): Collins is a difficult player to grasp from night to night, but he checks into Wednesday having scored under 20 Yahoo points in two straight and no more than 26.9 in his last four overall. He certainly has the ceiling for a 40-Yahoo-point tally, so while there’s some risk in fading him, there are also plenty of other forwards around his salary range that are capable of delivering similar returns, therefore offering you a chance to still keep pace even if he does snap out of his funk. 

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Centers

Bam Adebayo, MIA at NOP ($35): Adebayo checks into Wednesday’s interconference clash on a month-plus tear that has seen him average 22.3 points, 11.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks across 34.9 minutes over the last 18 games. The big man has 13 double-doubles in that stretch as well and has scored at least 40 Yahoo points on 14 occasions. He now tangles with a Pelicans squad that’s allowed the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (34.1) and the fourth-most Yahoo points per game to the position in the last 15 (59.0).

Myles Turner, IND at OKC ($28): Turner is another big man that could well overdeliver on his salary Wednesday, as the opposing Thunder have allowed the 12th-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (32.2), along with the sixth-most Yahoo points per game to the position (55.4). It’s also worth noting Oklahoma City has given up the fourth-most blocks per game (5.3), a particularly relevant stat when considering Turner has multiple swats in five consecutive contests, a stretch during which he’s eclipsed 50 Yahoo points twice and has put up no fewer than 34.4 Yahoo points.  

ALSO CONSIDER: Domantas Sabonis, SAC at LAL ($45); Alperen Sengun, HOU vs. CHA ($22)

Center to Avoid

Rudy Gobert, MIN at DEN ($28): Gobert’s salary isn’t prohibitive by any means, but he comes in struggling with a groin injury that has him saddled with a questionable tag as of Wednesday morning. That’s led to abbreviated outings for him in his last two games when he’s tried to play through it. Gobert also scored only 22.3 Yahoo points in 27 minutes during his one prior encounter against the Nuggets. With so many other centers in favorable matchups Wednesday, he’s a player to steer clear of.

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Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.