2024 NBA Draft Lottery: Odds, history and how it works
Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum reveals the top 4 picks at the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm.
The NBA Draft Lottery determines the order of selection for the NBA Draft. Here’s how it works.
> When was the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm took place in Chicago on Sunday, May 12.
> What were the results of the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?
- Atlanta*
- Washington
- Houston
- San Antonio
- Detroit
- Charlotte
- Portland
- Toronto (to San Antonio)
- Memphis
- Utah
- Chicago
- Houston (to Oklahoma City)
- Sacramento
- Golden State (to Portland)
*Hawks moved up from No. 10 (3.0%); Atlanta’s 1st No. 1 overall pick of the Lottery era
Watch the actual behind-the-scenes drawing of ping-pong balls at the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery.
> Which teams participated in the 2024 Draft Lottery?
The teams eligible for the Draft Lottery are the 14 teams that miss out on the NBA Playoffs. The final odds were determined after the regular season and tie breaks were settled between teams with identical regular season records.
| TEAM | LOTTERY ODDS |
| Detroit | 14.0% |
| Washington | 14.0% |
| Charlotte | 13.3% |
| Portland | 13.2% |
| San Antonio | 10.5% |
| Toronto1 | 9.0% |
| Memphis | 7.5% |
| Utah2 | 6.0% |
| Brooklyn (to Houston) | 4.5% |
| Atlanta | 3.0% |
| Chicago | 2.0% |
| Houston3 | 1.5% |
| Sacramento | 0.8% |
| Golden State4 | 0.7% |
1 This pick may be conveyed to San Antonio
2 This pick may be conveyed to Oklahoma City
3 This pick may be conveyed to Oklahoma City
4 This pick may be conveyed to Portland (via Boston and Memphis)
> What are the odds for each team in the Draft Lottery?
Each team will be assigned the following odds for teams starting with the reverse order of regular season record. The default odds are as follows:
Team > Odds for No. 1 Pick
- Team 1: 14.0%
- Team 2: 14.0%
- Team 3: 14.0%
- Team 4: 12.5%
- Team 5: 10.5%
- Team 6: 9.0%
- Team 7: 7.5%
- Team 8: 6.0%
- Team 9: 4.5%
- Team 10: 3.0%
- Team 11: 2.0%
- Team 12: 1.5%
- Team 13: 1.0%
- Team 14: 0.5%
Note: The above odds are the default odds should no team finish with an identical record. When teams finish with the same regular season record, tie-breaking procedures are enacted which can slightly shift the odds.
> What is the format for the Draft Lottery?
The NBA Board of Governors approved changes to the lottery system on Sept. 28, 2017. Under the revamped format (which began with the 2019 Draft), the NBA Draft Lottery will ensure that the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick. Under the pre-2019 system, the team with the worst record would pick no lower than fourth.
The new system will level the odds at the top of the NBA Draft Lottery so that the teams with the three worst regular-season records will each have a 14 percent chance of winning the lottery. In the pre-2019 structure, the top seed had a 25 percent of winning the lottery, the second seed had a 19.9 percent and the third seed had a 15.6 percent.
After drawings are conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft, the other lottery teams will continue to pick in inverse order of their regular-season record.
> How specifically does the Lottery work?
The 39th annual NBA Draft Lottery will determine the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the 2024 NBA Draft. Drawings will be conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2023-24 regular-season records.
The actual lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just before ESPN’s national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings.
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will be held tomorrow afternoon in Chicago and air live at 3:00 PM ET on ABC.
Below is the list of team representatives who will be on stage ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/yYlNyOJoTS
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) May 11, 2024
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.
The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.
If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.
A representative from Ernst & Young oversees the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the broadcast. The announcement of the lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum. A second representative from each participating team will be seated on stage. Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the lottery results before the envelopes are opened. The team whose logo is in the last envelope opened will have the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, which will be held on June26-27, 2024.
> What about picks 15-60?
The Draft selections for the remainder of the first round (No. 15-30) and the entire second round (No. 30-60), are determined by reverse order of regular season record. Each NBA team gets one selection in the first round and one selection in the second round.
The 2024 Draft order for the remainder of the first-round will be determined at the end of the regular season.
> What is the history of the NBA Draft Lottery and when was it first used?
— 1966-1984: From 1966 through 1984, the NBA team that finished with the worst record in each conference participated in a coin flip. The team that won the coin flip received the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. That team that lost the coin flip received the No. 2 overall pick. The remaining teams picked in inverse order of their regular-season records.
— June 1984: The NBA Board of Governors voted to adopt a lottery system among the non-playoff teams (or the teams holding their picks through trades) to determine their order of selection in the first round of the NBA Draft, beginning in 1985. Teams would pick in inverse order of their regular-season records in the second round (or, before the draft was reduced to two rounds in 1989, in all succeeding rounds).
— April 1986: Under a procedural change adopted by the Board of Governors, the lottery would determine the order of selection for the first three teams only. The remaining non-playoff teams would select in inverse order of their regular-season records. Therefore, the team with the worst record would be assured of picking no worse than fourth, the team with the second-worst record no worse than fifth and so on.
— October 1989: The NBA Board of Governors adopted a weighted system, beginning with the 1990 NBA Draft Lottery, which included 11 teams due to expansion (Charlotte and Miami joined the NBA for the 1988-89 season and Minnesota and Orlando followed in 1989-90). The team with the worst regular-season record received 11 chances at the top pick (out of a total of 66), the second-worst team got 10 chances and the team with the best record among the non-playoff teams was given one chance.
— November 1993: The NBA Board of Governors approved a modification that, effective with the 1994 NBA Draft Lottery, increased the chances of the teams with the worst records to win one of the top three picks while decreasing the chances of the teams with the best records. The new system increased the chances of the team with the worst record of drawing the first pick from 16.7 percent to 25 percent, and it decreased the chances of the team with the best record among lottery teams from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.
— October 1995: The NBA Board of Governors increased the number of teams participating in the lottery from 11 to 13 to account for the addition of expansion teams Toronto and Vancouver. Starting in 1996, the team with the worst record would continue to have a 25 percent chance of winning the first pick. Teams two through six would have slightly fewer chances, team seven would have the same chances and teams eight through 12 would have slightly more chances. The number of chances for team 13 did not change.
— 2004: The 2004 NBA Draft Lottery increased to 14 teams with the addition of the Charlotte Bobcats. However, as part of their expansion agreement, the Bobcats were locked into the fourth position in the 2004 NBA Draft and therefore did not have a chance to receive other picks in the lottery.
— September 2017: The NBA Board of Governors approved changes to the lottery system effective with the 2019 NBA Draft, reducing the odds so that the teams with the three worst records would share the same chance (14 percent) of receiving the No. 1 overall draft pick. The odds for the remaining participants in the 14-team lottery would be reduced gradually after the top three. Drawings would be conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft. The other lottery teams would continue to pick in inverse order of their regular-season record.
> What is the all-time list of winning lottery teams?
Year | Team with No. 1 Pick | Winning Odds | Player Taken
- 2024: Atlanta Hawks | 3.00% | TBD
- 2023: San Antonio Spurs | 14.00% | Victor Wembanyama
- 2022: Orlando Magic | 14.00% | Paolo Banchero
- 2021: Detroit Pistons | 14.00% | Cade Cunningham
- 2020: Minnesota Timberwolves | 14.00% | Anthony Edwards
- 2019: New Orleans Pelicans | 6.00% | Zion Williamson
- 2018: Phoenix Suns | 25.00% | Deandre Ayton
- 2017: Boston Celtics | 25.00% | Markelle Fultz
- 2016: Philadelphia Sixers | 25.00% | Ben Simmons
- 2015: Minnesota Timberwolves | 25.00% | Karl-Anthony Towns
- 2014: Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.70% | Andrew Wiggins
- 2013: Cleveland Cavaliers | 15.60% | Anthony Bennett
- 2012: New Orleans Hornets | 13.70% | Anthony Davis
- 2011: Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.80% | Kyrie Irving
- 2010: Washington Wizards | 10.30% | John Wall
- 2009: Los Angeles Clippers | 17.70% | Blake Griffin
- 2008: Chicago Bulls | 1.70% | Derrick Rose
- 2007: Portland Trail Blazers | 5.30% | Greg Oden
- 2006: Toronto Raptors | 8.80% | Andrea Bargnani
- 2005: Milwaukee Bucks | 6.30% | Andrew Bogut
- 2004: Orlando Magic | 25.00% | Dwight Howard
- 2003: Cleveland Cavaliers | 22.50% | LeBron James
- 2002: Houston Rockets | 8.90% | Yao Ming
- 2001: Washington Wizards | 15.70% | Kwame Brown
- 2000: New Jersey Nets | 4.40% | Kenyon Martin
- 1999: Chicago Bulls | 15.70% | Elton Brand
- 1998: Los Angeles Clippers | 22.56% | Michael Olowokandi
- 1997: San Antonio Spurs | 21.60% | Tim Duncan
- 1996: Philadelphia Sixers | 33.73% | Allen Iverson
- 1995: Golden State Warriors | 9.40% | Joe Smith
- 1994: Milwaukee Bucks | 16.30% | Glenn Robinson
- 1993: Orlando Magic | 1.52% | Chris Webber
- 1992: Orlando Magic | 15.15% | Shaquille O’Neal
- 1991: Charlotte Hornets | 10.61% | Larry Johnson
- 1990: New Jersey Nets | 16.67% | Derrick Coleman
- 1989: Sacramento Kings | 11.11% | Pervis Ellison
- 1988: Los Angeles Clippers | 14.29% | Danny Manning
- 1987: San Antonio Spurs | 14.29% | David Robinson
- 1986: Cleveland Cavaliers | 14.29% | Brad Daugherty
- 1985: New York Knicks | 14.29% | Patrick Ewing
