NBA Fantasy: Yahoo DFS for Jan. 10

Although our Wednesday night slate is a tad smaller than usual – there are 10 games on the docket – we’re still flush with options across the salary scale. Additionally, some persistent big-name absences are opening up solid value in several spots, making for an intriguing night of roster construction.

As customary, we’ll highlight multiple advantageous positional matchups to exploit at each position for your Yahoo Fantasy lineups, as well as a trio of candidates that may be best to steer clear of due to a combination of circumstances/salary.  

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Guards

Tyrese Maxey, PHI at ATL ($42): Maxey will continue taking the floor without Joel Embiid on Wednesday, a scenario in which the talented guard boasts a massive 33.2% usage rate. Maxey has scored 54.8 and 48.7 Yahoo points in two of the five games Embiid has missed since Christmas Day, and he’ll face a Hawks team allowing the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating to point guards (29.2), along with 39.7% 3-point shooting to the position. Atlanta has also yielded the fifth-most Yahoo points per game to ones in the last seven contests (55.4), boosting Maxey’s case even further. 

Tre Jones, SAN at DET ($10): Talented first-unit players at a minimum salary in favorable positional matchups are naturally always worthy of strong consideration. Such is the case with Jones on Wednesday. Even with Malaki Branham back healthy, Jones retained his starting role in Sunday’s game against the Cavaliers and provided 31.9 Yahoo points across 34 minutes. That was his second straight tally over 30 in a starting role, and based on those outcomes, he should be back on the first unit for Wednesday’s battle against a Pistons team that’s on the second night of a back-to-back and allowing the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating to point guards (29.1), as well as the fifth-most Yahoo points per game to point guards in the last 15 contests (53.6).

ALSO CONSIDER: Jamal Murray, DEN at UTA ($31)

Guard to Avoid

Stephen Curry, GSW vs. NOP ($39): Curry is the first of three big-name players that I’m going out on a limb on Wednesday and recommending as a Sit option. In the legendary sharpshooter’s case, it’s simply a combination of too many underwhelming recent performances, a very elevated salary and a bad matchup on paper. Curry has been at 37.9 Yahoo points or fewer in five of the last eight games, and at his salary, that’s not coming close to maximizing a return on investment. Moreover, the Pelicans are one of the best teams at cutting off one of Curry’s primary sources of fantasy production, 3-point shooting, as they’re tied with the Bucks for the second-lowest success rate surrendered from behind the arc (33.7%) and are also giving up the third-lowest offensive efficiency rating to PGs (23.7).

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Forwards

Victor Wembanyama, SAN at DET ($44): I expect a few Spurs to have productive nights against a shaky Pistons squad, and none might benefit more from the matchup than Wemby. The rookie phenom is already averaging 45.9 Yahoo points per game, and he checks in with tallies of 66.2, 52.3 and 55.5 Yahoo points in three of his last five contests. The Pistons have been vulnerable in the frontcourt all season – they’re surrendering the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to bigs (89.8), along with 41.6% 3-point shooting to PFs and centers – and they’re allowing the second-most Yahoo points to centers in the last 15 games (64.6). What’s more, Detroit gives up the third-most blocks per game (6.2, including 7.0 per contest in the last three), which naturally dovetails perfectly with Wembanyama’s skill set.

Keegan Murray, SAC at CHA ($20): Murray went off for one of his higher-percentile performances Tuesday against the Pistons, compiling 49 Yahoo points in 34 minutes on a line of 32 points, five rebounds, two assists, two blocks and one steal. It marked his second contribution of more than 45 Yahoo points in the last four games alone, and although he’ll be on the second night of a back-to-back Wednesday, the combination of his salary, upside and matchup against a Hornets team allowing the third-most Yahoo points per game to PFs in the last 30 games (51.0) is too good to pass up.

ALSO CONSIDER: Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. MIN ($43); Benedict Mathurin, IND vs. WAS ($14)

Forward to Avoid

DeMar DeRozan, CHI vs. HOU ($39): DeRozan continues to sport the same elevated salary he did while Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine were sidelined, and that is one of the biggest reasons for me to recommend using the hefty allotment of your salary cap in other areas of your lineup. DeRozan does have efforts of 43.6 and 45.9 Yahoo points in two of the last three games, but otherwise, he’s been at 39.5 or less in five other contests since Dec. 26. With a salary that makes him the fifth-most expensive forward Wednesday, he’s less appealing in a matchup against a tough Rockets defense than say, Kawhi Leonard, who only requires $1 more to roster and has a much more favorable scenario against a Raptors team that just went toe to toe with the Lakers on Tuesday night.

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Centers

Myles Turner, IND vs. WAS ($28): Targeting the Wizards with centers has proven a worthwhile endeavor in DFS this season, and the same should hold true Wednesday. Turner carries an appealing salary for a player averaging 34.3 Yahoo points per game on the season and one that has five tallies between 36.2 and 46.4 Yahoo points in his last 10 games alone. The Wizards come in allowing an NBA-high 39.6 offensive efficiency rating to centers, as well as an NBA-high 65 Yahoo points per contest to the position in the last 30 games. Moreover, Turner averages 36.4 Yahoo points per 36 minutes with Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) off the floor, and the latter will begin what is expected to be a multi-week absence.

Paul Reed, PHI at ATL ($15): Reed has been playing well during Embiid’s recent absences, producing totals of 41.5, 37.9 and 23.7 Yahoo points in three of the five games he’s filled in as the starting center. The big man is still capable of underwhelming, but his salary largely insulates you from too much damage if that does come to pass. Additionally, the matchup against the Hawks is a favorable one, considering Atlanta is allowing the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (36.2), as well as the third-most Yahoo points per game to fives in the last 30 contests (59.3). The Hawks are also giving up the fourth-most points in the paint per game (55.5), an area of the floor where 75.0% of Reed’s scoring occurs.

ALSO CONSIDER: Domantas Sabonis, SAC at CHA ($41)

Center to Avoid

Chet Holmgren, OKC at MIA ($31): Holmgren is a leading ROY candidate and has been an integral component of the Thunder’s success, but his matchup Wednesday could make it an uphill battle for him to deliver a strong return relative to investment. The young big is facing a Heat team that’s ranked No. 6 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to centers (29.9) and is surrendering the fewest Yahoo points per game to centers in the last 30 games (47.8). Miami also ranks in the top 10 in fewest blocks per game allowed to fives (1.8), potentially cutting off a key path of fantasy production for Holmgren.