Numbers preview: Bucks (3) vs. Heat (6)

The Milwaukee Bucks slightly regressed during the regular season with the hope of making significant progress in the playoffs. This approach will be immediately put to the test as they confront the team that ousted them in last year’s conference semifinals. The Miami Heat also witnessed a downturn this season, yet they have a track record of rallying when it matters most.

• Series preview & prediction | Complete series coverage

Here are some statistical insights to prepare you for the 3-6 series in the East. You can delve deeper with the provided links. The first game starts at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN this Saturday.

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Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

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Milwaukee Bucks (46-26)

Pace: 102.9 (2)
OffRtg: 116.5 (5)
DefRtg: 110.7 (9)
NetRtg: +5.8 (4)

Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

vs. Miami: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Bucks notes – General:

1. Only Eastern Conference team that ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
2. Ranked 29th in time of possession (19.8 minutes per game).
3. Had only 28 games, third fewest in the league (fewest among playoff or Play-In teams), that were within five points in the last five minutes. They were 13-15 (0.464) in those games and 33-11 (0.750) otherwise.
4. When trailing by double-digits, our record was only 6-23 (0.207). This rank was 18th in the league and the worst among teams that finished in the top eight of their conference.

Bucks 2020-21 shot profile

Area	FGM	FGA	FG%	Rank	%FGA	Rank
Restricted area	1,305	1,932	67.5%	4	29%	17
Other paint	451	1,018	44.3%	9	15%	25
Mid-range	427	993	43.0%	12	15%	9
Corner 3	240	588	40.8%	11	9%	18
Above-break 3	798	2,070	38.6%	4	31%	13

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Bucks notes – Offense:

1. Saw the league’s sixth biggest jump (+4.6) in points scored per 100 possessions, from 111.9 (eighth) last season to 116.5 (fifth) this season.
2. Ranked second with 24.5 transition points per game, with transition accounting for 19.4% of their possessions, the league’s highest rate, according to Synergy tracking.
3. According to Second Spectrum tracking, the player was ranked 19th for having an effective field goal percentage of 60.8% in the initial six seconds of the shot clock. In the middle 12 seconds of the shot clock, they were ranked second with 57.4%, but dropped to 26th place with 42.4% in the final six seconds of the shot clock.
4. Despite being ranked fourth in player movement, with 11.7 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession, the team fell to 25th in ball movement, with only 309 passes per 24 minutes of possession. This represents the league’s fourth largest drop in ball movement from last season, when they had 336 passes per 24 minutes of possession and were ranked 12th.
5. Saw the league’s biggest jump in offensive rebounding percentage, from 24.1% (28th) last season to 26.9% (13th) this season.
6. Led the league in pull-up 3-point percentage (37.8%).
7. One of two teams — Charlotte was the other — that ranked in the bottom 10 in both free throw percentage (76.0%, 23rd) and free throw rate (23.3 attempts per 100 shots from the field, 24th).

Bucks four factors

Own/Opp.	eFG%	Rank	FTA Rate	Rank	TO%	Rank	OREB%	Rank
Own	56.6%	2	0.233	24	13.4%	13	26.9%	13
Opponent	53.6%	13	0.202	1	12.7%	25	24.5%	4

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Bucks notes – Defense:

1. Saw the league’s biggest jump (+8.2) in points allowed per 100 possessions, from 102.5 (first) last season to 110.7 (ninth) this season.
2. Allowed 10.7 fast break points per game, third fewest in the league.
3. Were the only team whose opponents had a higher effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (53.9%, second highest) than they did in the paint (53.5%, lowest). Ranked second in both opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (61.3%) and the (lowest) percentage of opponent shots coming in the restricted area (25%).
4. Allowed 14.8 3-pointers per game, setting the NBA (opponent) record for a third straight season.
5. According to Synergy tracking, the team played 236 possessions of zone, ranking 12th most in the league, a significant increase from the previous season’s 40 possessions of zone, which was the 24th most. They allowed 1.04 points per possession while playing zone, placing them 15th out of the 23 teams that played at least 100 zone possessions.

Bucks notes – Lineups:

1. Starting lineup — Holiday, DiVincenzo, Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Lopez — averaged 107.9 possessions per 48 minutes, the fastest pace among 30 lineups that played at least 200 minutes together. It outscored opponents by 8.7 points per 100 possessions, the 15th best mark among those 30 lineups. It allowed just 9.3 fast break points per 48 minutes, fewest among those 30 lineups and its opponent free throw rate (13.3 attempts per 100 shots from the field) was also the lowest mark.
2. Played 56 total minutes with Giannis Antetokounmpo and P.J. Tucker at the four and five. Were outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions in those minutes, with Tucker shooting 0-for-4 from 3-point range.
3. Rookies or second-year players only contributed to 4% of their minutes, which is the lowest rate in the league.

Bucks notes – Individuals:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo shot 80.7% in the restricted area, the best mark for any player with at least 200 restricted-area attempts in the 25 seasons for which we have shot-location data. Among 230 players with at least 100 field goal attempts in the paint and at least 100 field goal attempts from outside the paint, he had the biggest difference between his field goal percentage in the paint (69.0%) and his field goal percentage outside the paint (32.4%).
2. Antetokounmpo led the league with 4.7 fast break points per game, though that was down from 6.0 per game last season.
3. Antetokounmpo drew a league-high 7.7 fouls per game. He drew fouls on 12.9% of his drives, the highest rate among 115 players with at least 300 total drives.
4. Pat Connaughton took 94% of his shots from the restricted area (24%) or 3-point range (70%). That was the third highest rate among 250 players with at least 300 total field goal attempts.
5. In the first half of games, Connaughton shot 42.4% from the 3-point range, but this fell to just 30.7% in the second half. Among 137 players who attempted at least 100 3-point shots in each half, this was the fourth largest drop in performance from first to second half.
6. Bryn Forbes scored 0.507 points per touch, most among 325 players with at least 1,000 touches.
7. Jrue Holiday shot 70-for-133 (52.6%) on pull-up 2-pointers, the third best mark among 100 players who attempted at least 100. Forbes had the fifth best mark (63-for-120, 52.1%).
8. Holiday ranked fifth in steals per game (1.6).
9. Opponents shot 49.3% at the rim when Brook Lopez was there to protect. That was the second best rim-protection mark among 72 players who defended at least 200 total shots at the rim. Antetokounmpo had the eighth best mark (51.5%).
10. Khris Middleton shot 73-for-177 (41.2%) on pull-up 3s, the third best mark among 61 players who attempted at least 100. Holiday had the eighth best mark (66-for-164, 40.2%).
11. Bobby Portis (47.1%) and Forbes (45.2%) ranked third and fourth, respectively, in 3-point percentage. Portis saw the fifth biggest jump in 3-point percentage (from 35.8%) among 202 players with at least 100 3-point attempts in each of the last two seasons.
12. P.J. Tucker accounted for just 7.1% of his teams’ field goal attempts while he was on the floor, the lowest rate among 362 players who played at least 500 minutes.

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Miami Heat (40-32)

Pace: 97.1 (29)
OffRtg: 110.6 (18)
DefRtg: 110.7 (10)
NetRtg: -0.1 (17)

Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

vs. Milwaukee: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Heat notes – General:

1. Only team that had a winning record and scored fewer points per 100 possessions than their opponents. Were a plus-2 for the season, but had 10 more possessions (7,036) than their opponents (7,026).
2. For the ninth consecutive season and the 21st time in the 25 seasons that we have play-by-play data, the team ranked in the bottom 10 for pace.
3. After leading by double-digits, they had a 36-9 record (0.800, 12th best), and after trailing by double-digits, they had a 10-25 record (0.286, 10th best).

Heat 2020-21 shot profile

Area	FGM	FGA	FG%	Rank	%FGA	Rank
Restricted area	1,219	1,782	68.4%	1	30%	14
Other paint	379	911	41.6%	19	15%	27
Mid-range	294	730	40.3%	18	12%	15
Corner 3	234	662	35.3%	29	11%	4
Above-break 3	698	1,930	36.2%	12	32%	9

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Heat notes – Offense:

1. Ranked second in assist percentage, recording assists on 67.1% of their field goals. Passed on 46.4% of their drives, the league’s highest rate.
2. Saw the league’s third biggest drop in 3-point percentage, from 37.9% (second) last season to 35.8% (19th) this season. Did rank in the top 10 (38.5%) after April 1.
3. Scored 5.8 more points per 100 possessions after the All-Star break (113.5, 10th) than they did before it (107.7, 25th). Only Minnesota (+8.5) saw a bigger jump.
4. Ranked last in clutch offense, scoring just 95.3 points per 100 possessions with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Ranked last in clutch 3-point percentage, shooting 19-for-83 (22.9%) from beyond the arc with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.
5. Ranked last in second chance points per game (10.1).

Heat four factors

Own/Opp.	eFG%	Rank	FTA Rate	Rank	TO%	Rank	OREB%	Rank
Own	54.6%	11	0.252	10	14.4%	21	24.0%	29
Opponent	54.2%	19	0.234	7	15.4%	3	26.7%	19

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Heat notes – Defense:

1. Ranked in the top 10 defensively for the 18th time in the 25 seasons for which we have play-by-play data.
2. Allowed 10.4 fast break points per game, fewest in the league.
3. Opponents made 45.9% of their attempts from the 3-point range, which was the highest rate in the league. Furthermore, 88% of these 3-pointers were assisted, marking the league’s second highest rate.
4. Saw the league’s second biggest drop in defensive rebounding percentage, from 75.3% (third) last season to 73.3% (19th) this season.
5. Ranked last with 4.0 blocks per game.
6. According to Synergy play-type tracking, the team played 661 possessions of zone, which is the second highest in the league. Their zone defense allowed 0.98 points per possession, ranking them 10th out of the 23 teams that played a minimum of 100 total possessions of zone.

Heat notes – Lineups:

1. Starting lineup — Nunn, Robinson, Butler, Ariza and Adebayo — outscored its opponents by 6.4 points per 100 possessions, a mark which ranked 20th among the 30 lineups that played at least 200 minutes. It forced 18.3 turnovers per 100 possessions, the highest rate among those 30 lineups, but it grabbed just 47.5% of available rebounds, the third lowest rate among that group.
2. Ranked 22nd (worst among teams that finished in the top eight in their conference) in aggregate bench point differential per 100 possessions (-1.4). Were outscored by 10.3 points per 100 possessions with Tyler Herro and Andre Iguodala on the floor together. That was the seventh worst mark among 309 two-man combinations that played at least 750 minutes.
3. The Heat were 11.1 points per 100 possessions better with Butler on the floor (+5.2) than they were with him off the floor (-5.9). That was the sixth biggest differential among 233 players who played at least 1,000 minutes for a single team. Butler was one of two players — Rudy Gobert was the other — who played at least 1,000 minutes, with on-off differential of five points per 100 possessions on both ends of the floor.

Heat notes – Individuals:

1. Bam Adebayo took only 43% of his shots from the restricted area (42%) or 3-point range (1%). That was the third lowest rate (higher than only those of DeMar DeRozan and Chris Paul) among 250 players with at least 300 total field goal attempts. He shot 72-for-170 (42.4%) from mid-range, up from 21-for-94 (22.3%) last season.
2. Adebayo saw the third biggest jump in free throw percentage (from 69.1% to 79.9%) among 70 players with at least 150 attempts in each of the last two seasons.
3. Trevor Ariza took 93% of his shots from the restricted area (33%) or 3-point range (59%). That was the seventh highest rate among 325 players with at least 200 field goal attempts.
4. Jimmy Butler led the league in steals, averaging 2.1 per game. For the seventh time in his career, he had more steals (108) than personal fouls (71). Only three other players played at least 1,000 minutes with more steals than fouls this season and no other player has done it more than three times over the last 10 years.
5. Butler’s effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint was 40.4%, ranking him fourth from the bottom out of 201 players who attempted at least 200 such shots.
6. Among 250 players with at least 300 field goal attempts, Butler had the fifth highest free throw rate at 56.5 attempts per 100 shots from the field. This was the highest rate among non-centers.
7. The Heat were 23-8 when Tyler Herro had an effective field goal percentage of 50% or better and 6-17 when he didn’t.
8. Kendrick Nunn shot 123-for-176 (69.9%) in the restricted area, the second best mark among 58 guards with at least 150 restricted-area attempts.
9. Nunn saw the 10th biggest jump in effective field goal percentage (from 51.4% to 57.8%) among 110 players with at least 500 field goal attempts in each of the last two seasons. Duncan Robinson saw the third biggest drop (from 66.7% to 61.4%) among that same group.
10. For the second straight season, Robinson had the highest first-quarter effective field goal percentage (69.9%) among players with at least 100 first-quarter field goal attempts.
11. 95.6% of Robinson’s baskets, the highest rate among 177 players with at least 200 total field goals, were assisted.

Regular season matchup

Bucks won season series, 2-1

• Bucks 144, Heat 97 (Dec. 29 @ Milwaukee)

• Heat 119, Bucks 108 (Dec. 30 @ Milwaukee)

• Bucks 122, Heat 108 (May 15 @ Miami)

Pace: 103.2 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes
Milwaukee OffRtg: 121.0 (2nd vs. Miami)
Miami OffRtg: 104.5 (21st vs. Milwaukee)

Total points scored, season series

Area	MIL	MIA	Diff.
Restricted area	74	86	-12
Other paint	38	20	18
Total in paint	112	106	6
Mid-range	46	32	14
3-point range	174	144	30
Total outside paint	220	176	44
Free throws	42	42	0
Fast break points	51	37	14
2nd chance points	40	34	6

Matchup notes:

1. The first two games took place before the Bucks traded for P.J. Tucker and the Heat traded for Trevor Ariza. Jimmy Butler missed all three games for the Heat, but the Bucks’ original top eight guys – their starters, Pat Connaughton, Bryn Forbes and Bobby Portis – played in all three. Seven of those eight guys (all but Connaughton) averaged 12 or more points per game in the season series.
2. The 29 3-pointers that the Bucks made on Dec. 29 are an NBA record. Their 31 fast break points that night were also their season high, and their 144 points on 103 possessions (139.8 per 100) was the 10th most efficient game for any team this season.
3. The Bucks were 36-1 when they led by more than 12 points in the second half, with the one loss being the Dec. 30 game when they led by 14 in the third quarter. The Heat had a 31-8 run over a nine-minute stretch spanning the third and fourth. Over the three games, the Heat scored 94.4 points per 100 possessions in the first half and 115.5 per 100 in the second half.
4. The Heat scored just 69 points on 77 possessions (89.6 per 100) against the Bucks’ starting lineup. Their 17.7 turnovers per 100 possessions were the highest rate for any team against the Bucks.
5. Antetokounmpo’s 16.7 points per game were his lowest scoring average against any Eastern Conference opponent. His primary defender was Bam Adebayo and he shot just 7-for-18 against that matchup.
6. According to Synergy tracking, neither team utilized zone play in any of the three games.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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