One Team, One Stat: Green becomes glue guy for Raptors

* Tonight on TNT: Bucks vs. Raptors, 8 ET

The Toronto Raptors have not matched their performance from the previous season. Their performance has regressed on both offense and defense, with a decrease in 0.5 points per 100 possessions and an increase in 2.4 points allowed.

But the Raptors remain a top-10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And they may have a higher ceiling than they ever have, with a Kia MVP candidate (depending on how voters take missed games into account) and a seemingly deep supporting cast that includes a couple of players that have taken big steps forward this season.

One reason why we probably haven’t seen the best of the Raptors yet is that their two best players — Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry — have played just 27 games together. Leonard, with a couple of minor injuries and a “load management” program that has kept him from playing both games of back-to-backs, has missed 14 games. Lowry, with leg and back issues, has missed 11. The 825 total minutes that the pair have played ranks 10th on the Raptors and 153rd among two-man combinations league-wide.

Still, the Raptors have the league’s third best record (37-15) and can regain possession of first place in the Eastern Conference with a win against the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, TNT).

Here’s a key number to keep in mind about the 2018-19 Raptors as they participate in one of their most significant regular season games…

THE STAT

The Raptors have been 19.1 points per 100 possessions better with Danny Green on the floor than they’ve been with Green off the floor.

THE CONTEXT

Among 238 players who have played at least 750 minutes through Wednesday, that is the second-largest on-off NetRtg differential.

The differential mainly highlights the Raptors’ performance when Green is on the court, where they outscore their opponents by 12.7 points per 100 possessions, rather than their performance without him, where they are outscored by 6.4 per 100. Among the 238 players, Green’s on-court score is the third highest.

Green was much more than a throw-in in the trade that brought Leonard to Toronto. He’s been a critical part of the Raptors’ success, second on the team in minutes played and 12th in the league in 3-pointers.

The Raptors got a better Green than the one that played for the Spurs last season. He has an effective field goal percentage of 58.8 percent, a career-high mark and up from 49 percent last season. That’s the second-biggest jump (smaller than only that of the Spurs’ Davis Bertans) among 182 players with at least 250 field goal attempts both seasons.

Green’s bigger on-off differential has been on offense, where the Raptors have been 14.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (scoring 116.6) than with him off the floor (scoring just 101.7). That’s the biggest on-off differential on offense among the 238 players that have played at least 750 minutes this season.

The defensive differential is less at 4.2 points per 100 possessions, but still noteworthy. This is especially true when considering that Green primarily plays against opposing starters, while those who substitute for him usually play against the opponents’ reserves.

Essentially, the difference in Green’s off-court performance shows that the Raptors’ bench hasn’t been living up to its previous standards. The Raptors had the highest aggregate bench NetRtg (plus-8.3) in the league last season and had been in the top six for six consecutive years. However, this season they’ve slipped to 22nd place (minus-4.0), representing the largest decline among all teams.

* Aggregate bench NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions with reserves on the floor. This number is based on an estimate for possessions, rather than true possessions from play-by-play data.

Continuity has been an issue with the bench. Last season, the Raptors had a bench unit — Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl — that played 340 minutes together and outscored its opponents by 19.2 points per 100 possessions, the sixth best mark among 48 lineups that played at least 200 minutes.

This season, the Raptors’ most-used lineup that doesn’t include at least four starters — VanVleet, Wright, Miles, OG Anunoby and Jonas Valanciunas — has played just 48 minutes together. Each of those guys has missed at least six games, with Valanciunas having missed the last 22 with a thumb injury.

Miles, the bench’s designated shooter, has shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, and the Raptors have been outscored by 10.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Norman Powell, a guy who can/has/will take Miles’ minutes, missed more than five weeks with a shoulder injury.

VanVleet is a plus-126 for the season, but that’s mostly about his minutes with the starters. In fact the five players that VanVleet has played the most minutes with are the five regular starters, and the Raptors have outscored their opponents by at least 4.5 points per 100 possessions with any of those five combinations (VanVleet plus a starter) on the floor. They’ve been outscored by at least 2.2 points per 100 possessions with any combination of VanVleet and another reserve on the floor.

So it’s been a very different starters/bench dynamic for the Raptors this season. For most of the last few years, they were at their best with reserves on the floor. This year, their starters have carried them, despite the lack of continuity with that group. Their most-used starting lineup has played in just 24 of their 52 games.

When at least four of the five regular starters of the Raptors are on the floor for 1,135 minutes, they have outscored their rivals by 319 points. However, when three or less are on the floor for 1,386 minutes, they have been outscored by their opponents by 38 points.

As long as they’ve had four of the five on the floor, they’ve been terrific. Well, unless the guy not on the floor is Green. In 73 minutes with the other four starters on the floor without Green, the Raptors have been outscored by 28 points.

The figures indicate that he’s the glue guy.

RAPTORS BASICS

Pace: 100.3 (17)

OffRtg: 112.4 (7)

DefRtg: 107.5 (10)

NetRtg: +4.9 (5)

RAPTORS LINKS

Team: Game log | Traditional | Advanced splits | Lineups

Player Traditional | On-off court | Shot locations | Clutch

RAPTORS NOTES – GENERAL

1. The Raptors have a record of 19-8 in games where both Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard have participated. When only one of them has played, their record is 18-7, with a 11-3 record for games with only Lowry and a 7-4 record for games with only Leonard.
2. When playing against a team that played the night before, they’re undefeated with a 9-0 record, making them the only team in the league with such a record. They have five more games of this nature left in their schedule. The next game is on Sunday when they will be hosting the Clippers, who will be playing in Detroit the previous night.
3. In only 17 games have they been down by more than ten points, the lowest in the league. Their record in these games is 4-13, and for games where they have not been down by ten or more points, they have a 33-2 record.

RAPTORS NOTES – OFFENSE

1. One of the eight teams that has experienced a decrease in points scored per 100 possessions compared to last season, despite the league average increasing from 107.7 to 109.1 points per 100 possessions.
2. According to Synergy tracking, they have the highest achievement in the league, scoring 1.17 points per possession in transition. Second Spectrum tracking shows that they also have the most effective field goal percentage in the league at 64.8% within the first six seconds of the shot clock. In addition, they have the largest decline in effective field goal percentage from the first six seconds of the shot clock to the remaining time (50.9 percent). Siakam is ranked seventh among individuals with 96 field goals and maintains an effective field goal percentage of 73.0 percent within the first six seconds of the shot clock.

RAPTORS NOTES – DEFENSE

1. Opponents have attempted 24.6 free throws per 100 shots from the field, that is the eighth lowest rate in the league and down from 27.7 (25th) last season. Only two teams have seen a bigger drop in opponent free throw rate.
2. Rank third with 15.3 deflections per game.

RAPTORS NOTES – LINEUPS

1. The Raptors have three of the top 10 lineups (lineups that have outscored their opponents by at least 16 points per 100 possessions) among 85 league-wide lineups that have played at least 100 minutes.
2. Best on-court OffRtg among two-man combinations (minimum 250 minutes together): Lowry and Green. The Raptors have scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions in 1,033 minutes with the pair on the floor together.
3. Best on-court DefRtg among two-man combinations (minimum 250 minutes together): Green and Valanciunas. The Raptors have allowed 93.9 points per 100 possessions in 270 minutes with the pair on the floor together.
4. 24 total minutes from rookies (all from Jordan Loyd) are the fewest in the league.

RAPTORS NOTES – INDIVIDUAL

1. Danny Green ranks second in the league with 51 corner 3-pointers, 20 fewer than the Rockets’ P.J. Tucker.
2. Serge Ibaka has taken 20 percent of his shots from 3-point range, down from 38 percent last season. That’s the biggest drop among 182 players with at least 250 field goal attempts both years.
3. Ibaka has shot 74.1 percent in the restricted area, the fourth best mark among 175 players with at least 100 restricted-area field goal attempts. Pascal Siakam has the seventh best mark (71.9 percent) among 55 players with at least 200 attempts.
4. Opponents have shot 52 percent at the rim when Ibaka has been there to protect it. That’s the third best rim protection mark among 19 players that have protected the rim at least five times per game in 25 games or more.
5. Kawhi Leonard ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 27.9 points per game. He also ranks fourth with 100 total points scored in the clutch (with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime).
6. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Leonard leads all players who have at least 1,000 total touches, averaging 13.3 free throw attempts per 100 touches.
7. Kyle Lowry ranks second in the league in both assists per game (9.4) and assist ratio, having recorded assists on 38 percent of his possessions. According to Second Spectrum tracking, he also ranks second with 11.9 assists per 100 touches.
8. Lowry has shot 8-for-36 (22 percent) with the score within five points in the last five minutes, the worst mark among 61 players who have attempted at least 25 clutch shots. Ibaka (57 percent) has the fourth best mark.
9. Siakam’s points per game have increased by 7.9 compared to last season. This is the third highest increase among players who have participated in at least 40 games last season and a minimum of 25 games this season.
10. Siakam has been assisted on 56 percent of his field goals, down from 72 percent last season. That’s the biggest drop among 163 players with at least 200 field goals last season and at least 100 field goals this season.
11. Siakam has taken 65 percent of his 3-pointers from the corners, the second highest rate among 192 players with at least 100 total 3-point attempts. OG Anunoby has the fourth highest rate (53 percent).
12. Fred VanVleet has an assist-turnover ratio of 3.62, the sixth highest mark among 220 players who have averaged at least 20 minutes in 25 games or more.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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