One Team, One Stat: Green becomes glue guy for Raptors

* Tonight on TNT: Bucks vs. Raptors, 8 ET

The Toronto Raptors are not performing as well as they did in the previous season. Their performance has deteriorated on both ends of the floor, as they are scoring 0.5 less points per 100 possessions and conceding 2.4 more.

But the Raptors remain a top-10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And they may have a higher ceiling than they ever have, with a Kia MVP candidate (depending on how voters take missed games into account) and a seemingly deep supporting cast that includes a couple of players that have taken big steps forward this season.

One reason why we probably haven’t seen the best of the Raptors yet is that their two best players — Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry — have played just 27 games together. Leonard, with a couple of minor injuries and a “load management” program that has kept him from playing both games of back-to-backs, has missed 14 games. Lowry, with leg and back issues, has missed 11. The 825 total minutes that the pair have played ranks 10th on the Raptors and 153rd among two-man combinations league-wide.

Still, the Raptors have the league’s third best record (37-15) and can regain possession of first place in the Eastern Conference with a win against the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, TNT).

Here’s a crucial number to remember about the 2018-19 Raptors as they participate in one of their most significant regular season games…

THE STAT

The Raptors have been 19.1 points per 100 possessions better with Danny Green on the floor than they’ve been with Green off the floor.

THE CONTEXT

Among 238 players who have played at least 750 minutes through Wednesday, that is the second-highest on-off NetRtg differential.

The differential mainly reflects the superior performance of the Raptors when Green is playing, outscoring their rivals by 12.7 points every 100 possessions, rather than their poorer performance when he is not playing, where they are outscored by 6.4 points per 100 possessions. Among the 238 players, the on-court number with Green is the third-highest.

Green was much more than a throw-in in the trade that brought Leonard to Toronto. He’s been a critical part of the Raptors’ success, second on the team in minutes played and 12th in the league in 3-pointers.

The Raptors got a better Green than the one that played for the Spurs last season. He has an effective field goal percentage of 58.8 percent, a career-high mark and up from 49 percent last season. That’s the second-biggest jump (smaller than only that of the Spurs’ Davis Bertans) among 182 players with at least 250 field goal attempts both seasons.

Green’s bigger on-off differential has been on offense, where the Raptors have been 14.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (scoring 116.6) than with him off the floor (scoring just 101.7). That’s the biggest on-off differential on offense among the 238 players that have played at least 750 minutes this season.

The defensive differential is less (4.2 points per 100 possessions), but it’s still noteworthy considering that Green primarily plays against the opponents’ starting lineup, while his substitutes mainly play against backup players.

In essence, Green’s off-court differential truly suggests that the Raptors’ bench hasn’t performed as well as it did in recent years. Last season, the Raptors boasted the best overall bench NetRtg (+8.3), marking their sixth consecutive season in the top six. However, this season they’ve slipped to 22nd position (at -4.0), experiencing the most significant decline compared to other teams.

* Aggregate bench NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions with reserves on the floor. This number is based on an estimate for possessions, rather than true possessions from play-by-play data.

Continuity has been an issue with the bench. Last season, the Raptors had a bench unit — Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl — that played 340 minutes together and outscored its opponents by 19.2 points per 100 possessions, the sixth best mark among 48 lineups that played at least 200 minutes.

This season, the Raptors’ most-used lineup that doesn’t include at least four starters — VanVleet, Wright, Miles, OG Anunoby and Jonas Valanciunas — has played just 48 minutes together. Each of those guys has missed at least six games, with Valanciunas having missed the last 22 with a thumb injury.

Miles, the bench’s designated shooter, has shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, and the Raptors have been outscored by 10.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Norman Powell, a guy who can/has/will take Miles’ minutes, missed more than five weeks with a shoulder injury.

VanVleet is a plus-126 for the season, but that’s mostly about his minutes with the starters. In fact the five players that VanVleet has played the most minutes with are the five regular starters, and the Raptors have outscored their opponents by at least 4.5 points per 100 possessions with any of those five combinations (VanVleet plus a starter) on the floor. They’ve been outscored by at least 2.2 points per 100 possessions with any combination of VanVleet and another reserve on the floor.

So it’s been a very different starters/bench dynamic for the Raptors this season. For most of the last few years, they were at their best with reserves on the floor. This year, their starters have carried them, despite the lack of continuity with that group. Their most-used starting lineup has played in just 24 of their 52 games.

When at least four of the five regular starters are on the floor, the Raptors have scored 319 points more than their opponents in 1,135 minutes. However, when there are three or fewer regular starters on the floor, they have been outscored by 38 points in 1,386 minutes.

As long as they’ve had four of the five on the floor, they’ve been terrific. Well, unless the guy not on the floor is Green. In 73 minutes with the other four starters on the floor without Green, the Raptors have been outscored by 28 points.

Based on the statistics, he’s the crucial contributor.

RAPTORS BASICS

Pace: 100.3 (17)

OffRtg: 112.4 (7)

DefRtg: 107.5 (10)

NetRtg: +4.9 (5)

RAPTORS LINKS

Team: Game log | Traditional | Advanced splits | Lineups

Player Traditional | On-off court | Shot locations | Clutch

RAPTORS NOTES – GENERAL

1. The Raptors have a 19-8 record in games where both Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard have played. When only one of them has played, their record is 18-7, specifically, 11-3 with only Lowry and 7-4 with only Leonard.
2. When playing against a team that competed the previous night, they hold a 9-0 record, making them the only undefeated team in the league under such circumstances. They have five more games of this nature left in their schedule, the upcoming one being on Sunday against the Clippers, who will be coming off a game in Detroit the night before.
3. They’ve been behind by at least 10 points in only 17 games, the lowest in the league. Their record in these games is 4-13, but in games where they haven’t fallen behind by 10 or more points, they have a 33-2 record.

RAPTORS NOTES – OFFENSE

1. This team is one of the eight that has scored fewer points per 100 possessions than last season, even as the league average points scored per 100 possessions has increased from 107.7 to 109.1.
2. According to Synergy tracking, they lead the league with 1.17 points scored per possession in transition. They also set the standard with a league-best effective field goal percentage of 64.8 percent in the first six seconds of the shot clock, as per Second Spectrum tracking. Moreover, they exhibit the largest drop in the league in effective field goal percentage from the first six seconds of the shot clock to the rest of the shot clock at 50.9 percent. Siakam is seventh in the league with 96 field goals and an effective field goal percentage of 73.0 percent within the first six seconds of the shot clock.

RAPTORS NOTES – DEFENSE

1. Opponents have attempted 24.6 free throws per 100 shots from the field, that is the eighth lowest rate in the league and down from 27.7 (25th) last season. Only two teams have seen a bigger drop in opponent free throw rate.
2. Rank third with 15.3 deflections per game.

RAPTORS NOTES – LINEUPS

1. The Raptors have three of the top 10 lineups (lineups that have outscored their opponents by at least 16 points per 100 possessions) among 85 league-wide lineups that have played at least 100 minutes.
2. Best on-court OffRtg among two-man combinations (minimum 250 minutes together): Lowry and Green. The Raptors have scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions in 1,033 minutes with the pair on the floor together.
3. Best on-court DefRtg among two-man combinations (minimum 250 minutes together): Green and Valanciunas. The Raptors have allowed 93.9 points per 100 possessions in 270 minutes with the pair on the floor together.
4. 24 total minutes from rookies (all from Jordan Loyd) are the fewest in the league.

RAPTORS NOTES – INDIVIDUAL

1. Danny Green ranks second in the league with 51 corner 3-pointers, 20 fewer than the Rockets’ P.J. Tucker.
2. Serge Ibaka has taken 20 percent of his shots from 3-point range, down from 38 percent last season. That’s the biggest drop among 182 players with at least 250 field goal attempts both years.
3. Ibaka has shot 74.1 percent in the restricted area, the fourth best mark among 175 players with at least 100 restricted-area field goal attempts. Pascal Siakam has the seventh best mark (71.9 percent) among 55 players with at least 200 attempts.
4. Opponents have shot 52 percent at the rim when Ibaka has been there to protect it. That’s the third best rim protection mark among 19 players that have protected the rim at least five times per game in 25 games or more.
5. Kawhi Leonard ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 27.9 points per game. He also ranks fourth with 100 total points scored in the clutch (with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime).
6. According to tracking by Second Spectrum, Leonard has the highest average of free throw attempts, 13.3 per 100 touches, amongst players who have at least 1,000 total touches.
7. Kyle Lowry ranks second in the league in both assists per game (9.4) and assist ratio, having recorded assists on 38 percent of his possessions. According to Second Spectrum tracking, he also ranks second with 11.9 assists per 100 touches.
8. Lowry has shot 8-for-36 (22 percent) with the score within five points in the last five minutes, the worst mark among 61 players who have attempted at least 25 clutch shots. Ibaka (57 percent) has the fourth best mark.
9. Siakam’s points per game have increased by 7.9 compared to last season. This is the third largest increase among players who participated in at least 40 games the previous season and have already played at least 25 games this season.
10. Siakam has been assisted on 56 percent of his field goals, down from 72 percent last season. That’s the biggest drop among 163 players with at least 200 field goals last season and at least 100 field goals this season.
11. Siakam has taken 65 percent of his 3-pointers from the corners, the second highest rate among 192 players with at least 100 total 3-point attempts. OG Anunoby has the fourth highest rate (53 percent).
12. Fred VanVleet has an assist-turnover ratio of 3.62, the sixth highest mark among 220 players who have averaged at least 20 minutes in 25 games or more.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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