One Team, One Stat: Green becomes glue guy for Raptors

* Tonight on TNT: Bucks vs. Raptors, 8 ET

The Toronto Raptors have not maintained the same level of performance as they did in the previous season. They have regressed on both offensive and defensive ends, scoring 0.5 points less for every 100 possessions and conceding an additional 2.4 points.

But the Raptors remain a top-10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And they may have a higher ceiling than they ever have, with a Kia MVP candidate (depending on how voters take missed games into account) and a seemingly deep supporting cast that includes a couple of players that have taken big steps forward this season.

One reason why we probably haven’t seen the best of the Raptors yet is that their two best players — Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry — have played just 27 games together. Leonard, with a couple of minor injuries and a “load management” program that has kept him from playing both games of back-to-backs, has missed 14 games. Lowry, with leg and back issues, has missed 11. The 825 total minutes that the pair have played ranks 10th on the Raptors and 153rd among two-man combinations league-wide.

Still, the Raptors have the league’s third best record (37-15) and can regain possession of first place in the Eastern Conference with a win against the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, TNT).

Here’s a significant number to consider about the 2018-19 Raptors as they participate in one of their most crucial regular season games…

THE STAT

The Raptors have been 19.1 points per 100 possessions better with Danny Green on the floor than they’ve been with Green off the floor.

THE CONTEXT

Among 238 players who have played at least 750 minutes up to Wednesday, that is the second-largest differential in on-off NetRtg.

The differential emphasizes the superiority of the Raptors when Green is playing, outscoring their opponents by 12.7 points per 100 possessions, rather than their inferior performance without him, trailing behind by 6.4 per 100. Among the 238 players, the on-court figure is the third highest.

Green was much more than a throw-in in the trade that brought Leonard to Toronto. He’s been a critical part of the Raptors’ success, second on the team in minutes played and 12th in the league in 3-pointers.

The Raptors got a better Green than the one that played for the Spurs last season. He has an effective field goal percentage of 58.8 percent, a career-high mark and up from 49 percent last season. That’s the second-biggest jump (smaller than only that of the Spurs’ Davis Bertans) among 182 players with at least 250 field goal attempts both seasons.

Green’s bigger on-off differential has been on offense, where the Raptors have been 14.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (scoring 116.6) than with him off the floor (scoring just 101.7). That’s the biggest on-off differential on offense among the 238 players that have played at least 750 minutes this season.

The defensive differential is smaller at 4.2 points per 100 possessions, but this is still noteworthy. It is especially meaningful when you take into account that Green predominantly plays against the opposing team’s starters and his replacements usually play against their reserves.

In essence, the off-court differential of Green signals that the Raptors’ bench performance has significantly declined compared to the past few years. In the previous season, the Raptors’ bench had the best combined NetRtg (plus-8.3) in the league and had consistently ranked within the top six for six consecutive seasons. However, this season has seen them drop to the 22nd rank (minus-4.0), the most significant decline among all teams.

* Aggregate bench NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions with reserves on the floor. This number is based on an estimate for possessions, rather than true possessions from play-by-play data.

Continuity has been an issue with the bench. Last season, the Raptors had a bench unit — Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl — that played 340 minutes together and outscored its opponents by 19.2 points per 100 possessions, the sixth best mark among 48 lineups that played at least 200 minutes.

This season, the Raptors’ most-used lineup that doesn’t include at least four starters — VanVleet, Wright, Miles, OG Anunoby and Jonas Valanciunas — has played just 48 minutes together. Each of those guys has missed at least six games, with Valanciunas having missed the last 22 with a thumb injury.

Miles, the bench’s designated shooter, has shot just 30 percent from 3-point range, and the Raptors have been outscored by 10.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Norman Powell, a guy who can/has/will take Miles’ minutes, missed more than five weeks with a shoulder injury.

VanVleet is a plus-126 for the season, but that’s mostly about his minutes with the starters. In fact the five players that VanVleet has played the most minutes with are the five regular starters, and the Raptors have outscored their opponents by at least 4.5 points per 100 possessions with any of those five combinations (VanVleet plus a starter) on the floor. They’ve been outscored by at least 2.2 points per 100 possessions with any combination of VanVleet and another reserve on the floor.

So it’s been a very different starters/bench dynamic for the Raptors this season. For most of the last few years, they were at their best with reserves on the floor. This year, their starters have carried them, despite the lack of continuity with that group. Their most-used starting lineup has played in just 24 of their 52 games.

When at least four of the five regular starters are on the floor for 1,135 minutes, the Raptors outscore their opponents by 319 points. However, when three or fewer are on the floor for 1,386 minutes, they are outscored by 38 points by their opponents.

As long as they’ve had four of the five on the floor, they’ve been terrific. Well, unless the guy not on the floor is Green. In 73 minutes with the other four starters on the floor without Green, the Raptors have been outscored by 28 points.

Based on the statistics, he’s the one holding everything together.

RAPTORS BASICS

Pace: 100.3 (17)

OffRtg: 112.4 (7)

DefRtg: 107.5 (10)

NetRtg: +4.9 (5)

RAPTORS LINKS

Team: Game log | Traditional | Advanced splits | Lineups

Player Traditional | On-off court | Shot locations | Clutch

RAPTORS NOTES – GENERAL

1. The Raptors have a 19-8 record in games where both Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard have participated. They’ve also achieved an 18-7 record in games where only one of them played, specifically an 11-3 record with only Lowry and a 7-4 record with only Leonard.
2. They hold a 9-0 record, as the only undefeated team in the league, when competing against a team that played the previous night. Five such games are yet to be played in their schedule. The next game is on Sunday, where they will be hosting the Clippers, who will have played in Detroit the night before.
3. In only 17 games have they been behind by double-digits, the lowest number in the league. They have a 4-13 record in these games, and a 33-2 record in games where they have not fallen behind by 10 or more points.

RAPTORS NOTES – OFFENSE

1. One of eight teams whose points per 100 possessions decreased from last season, despite the league average rising from 107.7 to 109.1 points scored per 100 possessions.
2. According to Synergy tracking, they have achieved the highest score in the league, with 1.17 points per possession in transition. Second Spectrum tracking reveals that they also lead the league with the highest effective field goal percentage (64.8%) in the initial six seconds of the shot clock. Furthermore, they exhibit the most significant decrease in effective field goal percentage from the first six seconds to the rest of the shot clock duration (50.9%). Individually, Siakam is placed seventh for scoring 96 field goals within the first six seconds of the shot clock, boasting an impressive effective field goal percentage of 73.0%.

RAPTORS NOTES – DEFENSE

1. Opponents have attempted 24.6 free throws per 100 shots from the field, that is the eighth lowest rate in the league and down from 27.7 (25th) last season. Only two teams have seen a bigger drop in opponent free throw rate.
2. Rank third with 15.3 deflections per game.

RAPTORS NOTES – LINEUPS

1. The Raptors have three of the top 10 lineups (lineups that have outscored their opponents by at least 16 points per 100 possessions) among 85 league-wide lineups that have played at least 100 minutes.
2. Best on-court OffRtg among two-man combinations (minimum 250 minutes together): Lowry and Green. The Raptors have scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions in 1,033 minutes with the pair on the floor together.
3. Best on-court DefRtg among two-man combinations (minimum 250 minutes together): Green and Valanciunas. The Raptors have allowed 93.9 points per 100 possessions in 270 minutes with the pair on the floor together.
4. 24 total minutes from rookies (all from Jordan Loyd) are the fewest in the league.

RAPTORS NOTES – INDIVIDUAL

1. Danny Green ranks second in the league with 51 corner 3-pointers, 20 fewer than the Rockets’ P.J. Tucker.
2. Serge Ibaka has taken 20 percent of his shots from 3-point range, down from 38 percent last season. That’s the biggest drop among 182 players with at least 250 field goal attempts both years.
3. Ibaka has shot 74.1 percent in the restricted area, the fourth best mark among 175 players with at least 100 restricted-area field goal attempts. Pascal Siakam has the seventh best mark (71.9 percent) among 55 players with at least 200 attempts.
4. Opponents have shot 52 percent at the rim when Ibaka has been there to protect it. That’s the third best rim protection mark among 19 players that have protected the rim at least five times per game in 25 games or more.
5. Kawhi Leonard ranks fourth in the league in scoring at 27.9 points per game. He also ranks fourth with 100 total points scored in the clutch (with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime).
6. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Leonard has the highest average of 13.3 free throw attempts per 100 touches among players with a minimum of 1,000 total touches.
7. Kyle Lowry ranks second in the league in both assists per game (9.4) and assist ratio, having recorded assists on 38 percent of his possessions. According to Second Spectrum tracking, he also ranks second with 11.9 assists per 100 touches.
8. Lowry has shot 8-for-36 (22 percent) with the score within five points in the last five minutes, the worst mark among 61 players who have attempted at least 25 clutch shots. Ibaka (57 percent) has the fourth best mark.
9. Siakam’s points per game have increased by 7.9 compared to last season. This is the third highest increase among players who participated in at least 40 games last season and have already played a minimum of 25 games this season.
10. Siakam has been assisted on 56 percent of his field goals, down from 72 percent last season. That’s the biggest drop among 163 players with at least 200 field goals last season and at least 100 field goals this season.
11. Siakam has taken 65 percent of his 3-pointers from the corners, the second highest rate among 192 players with at least 100 total 3-point attempts. OG Anunoby has the fourth highest rate (53 percent).
12. Fred VanVleet has an assist-turnover ratio of 3.62, the sixth highest mark among 220 players who have averaged at least 20 minutes in 25 games or more.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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