Power Rankings Notebook: 3 teams better than they seem, Sixers' strong shooting and LaMelo's vision
The Grizzlies, with Ja Morant, are currently 9th in the West standings with a 10-10 record.
Each week during the season, NBA.com writer John Schuhmann surveys the league to compile stats and notes for his in-depth Power Rankings. Before the next rankings drop on Monday, here are some of the storylines he’s keeping an eye on this weekend.
1. What the Standings Don’t Tell Us
With apologies to Bill Parcells, a team’s record doesn’t tell us the whole story.
On Wednesday, we passed the 1/3 mark of the season, with 368 of 1,080 games played. We’ve learned from history that a team’s record after 20 games can tell us a lot. In the 20 full (82-game) seasons from 1997-98 to 2018-19, 92% of the teams that won at least 12 of their first 20 games made the playoffs. On the other end of the spectrum, only 9% of teams that won fewer than eight of their first 20 games would go on to reach the postseason.
This season differs in many ways, inclusive of issues related to the pandemic. Additionally, the playoff system has been altered. Rather than having a strict cut-off after the top eight teams in each conference, the cut-off now comes after the top six teams (who automatically qualify for the playoffs), followed by another cut-off after teams 7-10, also known as “the Play-In Club”.
As of the games on Wednesday, the Miami Heat, currently in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, is just a game and a half behind the Toronto Raptors who have unexpectedly moved up to fifth place with a 12-13 record. Over in the Western Conference, only a two and a half game difference separates the fifth-placed Blazers (13-10) from the Houston Rockets who are currently in 13th place with an 11-13 record.
To distinguish between teams hovering around .500, we can examine a few statistics that could provide insight into the authenticity of their record.
- Point differential – A team with a lot of narrow losses and bigger wins might be better than their record says.
- Strength of schedule – If a team has played a relatively tough schedule, they could be in for better results in the future.
- Opponent 3-point percentage and free throw percentage – These numbers can be random, and if a team has been unlucky in how well their opponents have shot from deep or from the line, their defense may be better than currently ranked.
- Health – If the team’s best players have missed a bunch of games, they could be much improved when healthy.
(* There’s some overlap between the second and third items above. If you’ve played a tougher schedule, you’ve probably played the better shooting teams.)
To better predict potential surges and identify overestimated records, we have ranked all the teams based on the four factors mentioned earlier and summed up those rankings.
We evaluated the team’s health by considering the games missed by the top eight players in terms of minutes per game, with more emphasis on the top four players. This means that a missed game by Karl-Anthony Towns would be weighed more than one missed by Mike Scott. We did not count players who are out for the season, like Spencer Dinwiddie, as their absence wouldn’t impact future performance. However, we did include players who haven’t yet played, but are expected to be in the top eight once they do, such as Jaren Jackson Jr.
Better than they seem?
These are the 3 teams exhibiting the most indications of being superior to their current record:
1. Indiana (12-13) – T.J. Warren has played in just four games, and Caris LeVert has yet to play for his new team. The Pacers rank 25th in opponent 3-point percentage, so they could see better results going forward. Their point differential says they should have one additional victory and they’ve played one of the league’s 10 toughest schedules. Their game in Detroit on Thursday is the start of five straight against teams no better than the 11-13 Hawks and Rockets.
2. Detroit (6-18) – The Pistons have the league’s second worst record, but they’ve played its toughest schedule (they have wins over the Celtics, Suns, Sixers, Lakers and Nets) and they have the point differential of a team that’s 8-16. They’re 2-12 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes and 4-6 otherwise.
3. Memphis (10-10) – The Grizzlies have played the league’s sixth toughest schedule and have had some bad luck with opponent shooting, ranking 28th in opponent 3-point percentage. They’ve also been without Jackson for the entire year and Ja Morant for eight of their 20 games.
The next three: Denver (second toughest schedule, two fewer wins than their point differential would indicate), Minnesota (Towns has played in just five games, relatively tough schedule), and Dallas (tough schedule, health issues).
Not that good?
Here are the three teams whose performance indicates they may not be as good as their record suggests:
1. Utah (20-5) – The Jazz have established themselves as a contender, but have been fortunate in regard to health, with just 10 total games missed from their top eight guys. They rank fifth in opponent 3-point percentage and have played one of the league’s 10 easiest schedules, with 15 of their 25 games having come against teams that currently have losing records.
2. L.A. Lakers (20-6) – The Lakers rank third in opponent 3-point percentage, so we could see some slippage from that No. 1 defense at some point. They’ve been very healthy and have played a relatively easy schedule, with 16 of their 26 games having come against teams that are currently at or below .500.
3. Orlando (9-16) – We’re not counting injuries to Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac, because those guys aren’t coming back this season. The Magic have had injury issues beyond those two, but they’ve played the league’s second easiest schedule and have the point differential of a team that’s 6-19.
The next three: Philadelphia (league’s easiest schedule to date), and Phoenix (relatively easy schedule, luck with opponent shooting), New York (first in opponent 3-point percentage, sixth in opponent free throw percentage), and Oklahoma City (10-14, with the point differential of a team that’s 7-17).
2. Sixers’ Starters Sweet Shooting
With their win in Sacramento on Tuesday, the Philadelphia 76ers are 14-0 when they’ve had their full starting lineup. When one or more of their five starters has been out, the Sixers are 4-7, with the most recent of those losses having come last Thursday, when, playing without Ben Simmons, they lost at home to the Portland Trail Blazers, who were without Damian Lillard.
Overall, the Sixers have been better on defense (where they rank second) than on offense (13th). But that starting lineup has rather potent offensively.
- Thursday on TNT: 76ers vs. Blazers (10 ET)
The 120.1 points per 100 possessions that the Sixers’ starting lineup has scored ranks third among 23 lineups that have played at least 100 minutes this season. It has the second highest turnover rate among the 23 (15.6 per 100 possessions), but the second highest free throw rate (33.1 attempts per 100 shots from the field) and, most important, the highest effective field goal percentage (60.8%).
Interestingly, the starting lineup of the Sixers has shown its most powerful performance beyond the paint. The average effective field goal percentage for shots outside the paint in the league is 51.9%, in contrast, the Sixers’ starting lineup boasts a percentage of 64.1%. They have a mid-range shooting record of 42 out of 77 attempts (54.5%) and a 3-point shooting record of 78 out of 171 attempts (45.6%), including a 50% success rate (25 out of 50 attempts) on corner 3-point shots.
Sixers’ shooters from outside the paint with the starting lineup:
| FGA | eFG% | |
| Seth Curry | 74 | 75.7% |
| Danny Green | 59 | 58.5% |
| Tobias Harris | 49 | 70.4% |
With other lineups:
| FGA | eFG% | |
| Seth Curry | 44 | 45.5% |
| Danny Green | 109 | 48.6% |
| Tobias Harris | 111 | 52.7% |
Those numbers are likely unsustainable. But the shooters obviously benefit from Ben Simmons (who leads the league with 97 assists on 3-pointers) bending the defense with his pushes in transition and from Joel Embiid drawing attention in the post.
The Sixers successfully prevent stagnation, ranking seventh in ball movement with 350 passes every 24 minutes of possession. This is a significant improvement from last season when they were ranked 14th with 333 passes. While they are a mid-ranking team in terms of player movement, covering 11.2 miles per 24 minutes of possession and ranking 18th, they have also shown progress in this area.
With that initial group, it’s possible to have a clear goal of shifting the ball from one side to the other. As the ball is transferred to the left side of the court and Harris emerges from the corner to receive a handoff from Embiid, Green moves to the right side, pulling away a defender and providing Embiid with a clear path to the rim…
The Sixers’ four-game trip only gets tougher as it goes. They’ll have an opportunity for revenge against the Blazers in Portland on Thursday (10 p.m. ET, TNT). They’re in Phoenix on Saturday (3 p.m. ET, NBA TV) and complete the trip in Utah on Monday (9 p.m. ET, League Pass).
3. Rockets Still Stagnant
It was noted in this week’s Power Rankings that the Brooklyn Nets had, not surprisingly, seen drops in ball and player movement since acquiring James Harden. But on the other side of that trade, the Houston Rockets haven’t exactly turned into the 2014 Spurs.
When the trade occurred (up until Jan. 13), the Rockets were positioned 27th in ball movement with 313 passes every 24 minutes of possession, and last in player movement, with a distance covered of 10.4 miles every 24 minutes of possession. Both metrics have improved since, but as of Jan. 14, their rankings are still only 23rd (with 317 passes) and 28th (covering 10.8 miles).
David Nwaba and Jae’Sean Tate are two players from the Rockets who display high energy during their games. However, their offense often exhibits periods of inactivity. This was particularly evident during their recent time-out possession in the disappointing defeat they suffered in Charlotte on Monday.
Houston hasn’t had much continuity. Since Victor Oladipo made his Rockets debut on Jan. 18, only Tate, DeMarcus Cousins and P.J. Tucker have played in all 13 of their games. John Wall and Oladipo have played just 102 minutes together and just 53 minutes with Christian Wood, who’s currently out with an ankle injury. So it’s understandable that guys aren’t yet on the same page.
It can’t be forgotten that the Rockets rank fourth defensively, second (105.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) since the Harden trade. But their last two games (losses in Charlotte and New Orleans) have been their two worst defensive games of the season (126 per 100 allowed over the two games), and if you’re looking for a free-flowing offense unencumbered from Harden’s isolation game, you may have to wait a while.
The Rockets should have both Wall and Oladipo in the lineup when they host the Heat on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
4. LaMelo Plays it Safe
LaMelo Ball takes some chances with his passing. Late in the first quarter of their win over Houston on Monday, the not-so-mobile DeMarcus Cousins was able to leave his man and easily intercept a lob pass from Ball to Miles Bridges. In the fourth quarter, the Hornets ran the same play and Ball was able to squeeze the pass between Tate and Mason Jones …
However, in the fourth quarter, as the Hornets were widening their lead, Ball exhibited more carefulness. Bismack Biyombo was freely moving down the right side of the court, yet Ball held back until Biyombo – who, despite being only 28, isn’t as dynamic or coordinated as Bridges – had stabilized himself. Only then did Ball throw a more guarded lob.
Maybe Ball was a bit more cautious in that situation because he was aiming for his 10th assist.
5. Most Prolific Assist Combinations
Ball’s 31 assists to Bridges (watch them all here) are the most he has to a single teammate (he also has 30 to Gordon Hayward), but aren’t enough to crack the top 25 in regard to most assists from one player to a single teammate. Here’s the top 15, headlined by a pairing featured in this space last week, along with the rate of assists per 36 minutes on the floor together:
Most assists from one player to a single teammate, 2020-21
| Scorer | Assisted By | AST | MIN | Per 36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Draymond Green | 59 | 589 | 3.6 |
| John Collins | Trae Young | 56 | 586 | 3.4 |
| Domantas Sabonis | Malcolm Brogdon | 48 | 789 | 2.2 |
| Jaylen Brown | Marcus Smart | 47 | 486 | 3.5 |
| Deandre Ayton | Chris Paul | 46 | 622 | 2.7 |
| Tobias Harris | Ben Simmons | 45 | 545 | 3.0 |
| Clint Capela | Trae Young | 45 | 461 | 3.5 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | Luka Doncic | 43 | 540 | 2.9 |
| Anthony Davis | LeBron James | 43 | 486 | 3.2 |
| RJ Barrett | Julius Randle | 40 | 778 | 1.9 |
| Malik Beasley | D’Angelo Russell | 40 | 440 | 3.3 |
| Jerami Grant | Delon Wright | 40 | 600 | 2.4 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Luka Doncic | 39 | 306 | 4.6 |
| Jamal Murray | Nikola Jokic | 39 | 643 | 2.2 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Khris Middleton | 39 | 588 | 2.4 |
MIN = Minutes on the floor together
Per 36 = Assists per 36 minutes on the floor together
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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