Schedule breakdown: 3 weeks until All-Star Weekend

The Cleveland Cavaliers have already won eight more games than they did last season. Statistically, they’ve been the league’s most improved team, both on offense — scoring 4.9 more points per 100 possessions than they did last season — and on defense — allowing 8.5 fewer. Put that together and they’ve been 13.4 points per 100 possessions better than they were last season, which would be the second biggest season-to-season improvement of the last 25 years, bigger than that of the 1997-98 San Antonio Spurs, who essentially added two Hall of Famers, drafting Tim Duncan and getting David Robinson back from injury.

Biggest season-to-season jump, point differential per 100 possessions, since 1997-98

NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Through Jan. 26, 2022

But the Cavs aren’t just an improved team. They’re really good, sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference (ahead of both the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks) after handing the champs just their fourth defeat (they’re 18-4) in a game in which they’ve had Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup. (And the game wasn’t close.) Cleveland also has the conference’s best point differential, both per game (+4.9) and per 100 possessions (+5.1).

Here’s the other thing about what the Cavs have done: They’ve done it against a much tougher schedule than what any of the other top six teams in the East have faced thus far. And that means the Cavs have an easier schedule going forward.

The softest part of that remaining schedule is actually the next couple of weeks. The Cavs will play six of their next seven games against Detroit, New Orleans, Houston, Indiana (x2) and San Antonio. In total, they have the league’s easiest schedule between now and the All-Star break in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.398), with seven of their nine games against teams currently under .500. The Cavs are 15-4 against that group thus far.

The Cavs are also the only team that won’t face a team that currently ranks in the top 10 defensively between now and the All-Star break. Seven of their nine games are against teams that rank in the bottom 10. So, after registering one of the Bucks’ worst defensive performances of the season, the Cavs have an opportunity to climb from where they currently rank (15th) in offensive efficiency.

Cleveland does have one big game within that top six in the East, visiting the Sixers on Feb. 12, the second game of back-to-backs for both teams. And the Cavs are one of six teams that don’t have any rest-advantage games between now and the All-Star break.

Reminder: Rest advantage is when a team didn’t play the day before and the opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back. Rest disadvantage is when a team is playing the second game of a back-to-back and the opponent didn’t play the day before.

Through Jan. 26, teams are 120-74 (.619) in rest-advantage games, 72-49 (.595) at home and 48-25 (.658) on the road. Overall, that’s the best rest-advantage record of the last eight seasons. The road-rest-advantage record is the best in (at least) the last 25.

This is, arguably, the toughest part of the season, where some teams just want to make it to the All-Star break. And we’ve seen some of the best teams in the league struggle over the last few weeks. But every game counts and there are still 160 of them (10.7 per team) between now and the break. With the trade deadline on Feb. 10, big decisions will need to be made in the next two weeks. Every team is playing for something, especially with the Play-In Tournament back this season.

So here’s a quick look at every team’s schedule for the 22 days (Jan. 27 – Feb. 17) between now and All-Star.

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Eastern Conference breakdown, remaining pre-break schedules

B2B = Back-to-backs
RA, RDA = Rest-advantage, Rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage
> .500 = Games vs. the 15 teams currently over .500
OppO = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in offensive efficiency
OppD = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

Eastern Conference notes:

• The Hawks are in 12th place at 22-25, but they’re just a game in the loss column behind the eighth-place Celtics (25-24). They have four extra-critical games – two each against Boston and Toronto – against teams in front of them between now and the All-Star break. The first of those is Friday, when the Celtics are at State Farm Arena.

• The Celtics have the most East-heavy schedule between now and the All-Star break, with nine of their 11 games within the conference. They’ve played just two rest-advantage games, the fewest in the league, thus far. They’ll have two more next week: at Detroit on Feb. 4 and at Orlando on Feb. 6.

• The Nets are the team for which home vs. road means the most going forward. And they have the league’s most road-heavy schedule between now and the All-Star break, with Kyrie Irving able to play in eight of their 11 games. They begin a five-game trip at Golden State on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), also visiting Phoenix, Utah, Denver and Miami between now and the break. Their loss (at home) to the Nuggets on Wednesday began a stretch where they’re playing seven of nine against teams currently over .500, and they’re just 8-13 within that group thus far.

• The Hornets have played the league’s most road-heavy schedule (29 of 49 on the road) thus far, and they’re tied (with the Sixers) for the most home-heavy schedule over the next three weeks, with eight of their 11 games at the Spectrum Center. They’re coming off the third most efficient game for any team this season (158 points on 107 possessions in Indiana on Wednesday), but have the league’s toughest next few weeks in regard to opposing defenses, with seven of their 11 games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 on that end of the floor. That includes two games (both in Charlotte) against the seventh-ranked Heat.

• The Bulls are the only East team with 12 games (and the only team that doesn’t have any multiple-day breaks) between now and the All-Star break. They play eight of those 12 (with three back-to-backs) over the first 12 days of February. They have the worst record (3-7) in games played between the top six teams in the East, and their one game within that group (vs. Philadelphia on Feb. 6) is the front end of one of those back-to-backs.

• The Heat, thanks to a rescheduled game from earlier in the season, have a stretch of four games in five nights starting Friday. It’s a home-home back-to-back on Friday and Saturday and a road-road back-to-back (in Boston and Toronto) on Monday and Tuesday. Those two games are the start of a six-game trip, and their first game when they get back home (Feb. 12) is a big one against Brooklyn.

• The Bucks are still 8-5 in games between the league’s top 10 teams after their loss in Cleveland on Wednesday. They’ll have two more of those between now and the break, visiting Phoenix (at the end of a four-game trip) on Feb. 10 and hosting the Sixers on Feb. 17.

• The Knicks have yet to play a game outside of the Eastern or Central time zones. They’ll finally hit the Pacific and Mountain zones on a five-game trip that begins Feb. 5 in L.A.

• The Sixers are tied (with the Hornets) for the most home-heavy schedule over the next three weeks, with eight of their 11 games at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers have the league’s 10th best record, and five of their 11 pre-break games (three at home, two on the road) are against teams ahead of them. That includes three big games – at Chicago, vs. Cleveland, at Milwaukee – within the top six in the East. Philly is currently 4-4 within the top six in the East and 5-8 within the overall top 10.

• The Raptors, thanks to a rescheduled game, will play four games in five days starting Monday, and their next six games (including two each against the Heat and Hawks) are against teams that rank in the top seven offensively. But they have the biggest differential between rest-advantage games (4) and rest-disadvantage games (1) over the next 22 days. In fact, six of their 11 games between now and the break are against teams playing the second game of a back-to-back. The first two of those rest-advantage games are Saturday in Miami and Monday in Atlanta.

• The Wizards have three days off to think about their epic collapse against the Clippers on Tuesday. And starting Saturday, they’ll play six straight games against the top 10 teams in the league, with an additional game in Brooklyn to close their pre-break schedule.

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Western Conference breakdown, remaining pre-break schedules

B2B = Back-to-backs
RA, RDA = Rest-advantage, Rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage
> .500 = Games vs. the 15 teams currently over .500
OppO = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in offensive efficiency
OppD = Games against teams currently in the top 10 & bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

Western Conference notes:

• The Mavs have the West’s easiest pre-break schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.416). They have eight games, tied with Chicago for the most in the league, against teams currently at or below .500, though that includes a two-game series (in Dallas) against the 25-25 Clippers, the end of a six-game homestand.

• The Nuggets are 2-0 on a six-game road trip that concludes with visits to New Orleans (Friday), Milwaukee (Sunday), Minnesota and Utah. Their win in Brooklyn on Wednesday improved them to 10-7 against the Eastern Conference, and they’ll play five straight games in the East (three home games and a back-to-back in Boston and Toronto) before concluding their pre-break schedule at Golden State.

• The Warriors have the most West-heavy schedule between now and the All-Star break, with nine of their 11 games within the conference. The two exceptions are home games against the Nets (Saturday on ABC) and Knicks.

• The Clippers have the league’s toughest schedule over the next 22 days in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.570). Nine of their 11 games are against teams currently at or above .500, with six of those nine on the road. They’re 13-15 against that .500-or-better group thus far.

• The Lakers should be better defensively with Anthony Davis back in the lineup, and they held Brooklyn’s sixth-ranked offense to just 96 points on 95 possessions on Tuesday. That was the third game on their six-game Grammys trip and the second of five straight against top-10 offenses. The trip concludes with visits to the ninth-ranked Sixers (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT), third-ranked Hornets (Friday) and second-ranked Hawks (Sunday). The Philly and Charlotte games are the first of three back-to-backs between now and the break, which could affect Davis’ availability over the Lakers’ 10 games.

• The Grizzlies have the West’s second easiest schedule in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (.443), with seven of their 10 games against teams currently at or below .500. Two of their three against teams over .500 are in the next five days: vs. Utah on Friday and at Philadelphia on Monday. The Grizz (16-9) are tied with Golden State (16-9) for the most wins against the 15 teams currently over .500, though Phoenix (15-6) has the best record within the group.

• The Wolves‘ toughest stretch between now and the All-Star break is the next six days. They have as tough as back-to-back as you’re going to get on Thursday and Friday, visiting the Warriors (10 p.m. ET, TNT) and Suns. Then they host Utah and Denver on Sunday and Tuesday. After that, only two of their eight games before the break are against teams – Chicago and Charlotte – that currently have winning records.

• The Pelicans still have a shot at the last Play-In spot in the West. They’re 15-13 (seventh-best in the conference) over the last nine weeks, and they’ve won eight of their last 10 games at home. They’ll play eight of their 12 remaining pre-break games at the Smoothie King Center, finishing their pre-break schedule with a six-game homestand. And two of their road games – at Detroit and Houston – are certainly winnable.

• The Suns have the league’s best record overall and its best record in interconference games, 14-2 against the East. Starting Tuesday, they’ll play seven straight games against the East, a four-game trip (with visits to Chicago and Philly) sandwiched by home games against Brooklyn and Milwaukee (Feb. 10).

• The Blazers are two games into a stretch of eight (with three back-to-backs) in 12 days. They do have the easiest remaining pre-break schedule in regard to opposing offenses, with seven of their 11 games against teams that rank in the bottom eight in offensive efficiency.

• The Kings are 4-19 (2-15 since early November) against the 15 teams that currently have winning records. Seven of their 10 remaining pre-break games (two each against Brooklyn and Minnesota) are against that group.

• The Spurs‘ loss to Memphis on Wednesday began a stretch of five straight games against the five best teams in the league. They’re 1-5 against that group, with the win having come at Golden State (Dec. 4).

• The Jazz are the only team without any back-to-backs between now and the All-Star break, which is good because they’re 2-8 (0-5 in the second game) in their last five back-to-backs. They have a six-game homestand from Feb. 2-14 that includes visits from the Nuggets, Nets and Warriors. The Jazz have lost nine of their last 11 games overall, but are still 13-9 against the other 14 teams that currently have winning records

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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