Mailbag: Matthews' scoring, next contracts for Crosby, Lafreniere

Mailbag: Matthews' scoring, next contracts for Crosby, Lafreniere

Dan Rosen from NHL.com responds to weekly questions.

© Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images

Here is the Aug. 21 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Auston Matthews, over/under 65 goals? — @mfav2010

Under.

Last season, Matthews netted 69 goals, marking the 25th instance in NHL history that a player has scored 65 or more in a single season. However, achieving this feat multiple times is uncommon, and it’s even more unusual to accomplish it in consecutive seasons.

Wayne Gretzky (four times), Mario Lemieux (four), Brett Hull (three), Phil Esposito (three), Jari Kurri (two) and Mike Bossy (two) are the only players with multiple 65-goal seasons. Gretzky, Hull, Lemieux, Esposito and Kurri are the five who have done it in back-to-back seasons.

This doesn’t mean Matthews isn’t capable of doing it. He’s currently the best goal scorer in the game. However, choosing under 65 for this season is merely playing the odds considering its rarity. Matthews will also be playing under a distinct system with coach Craig Berube. The Maple Leafs may opt to reduce their scoring rate of 3.63 goals per game from last season to cut down on the 3.18 they conceded. If this happens, Matthews might lose a few goals, providing another reason to bet on the under.

Now watch him score 70 and prove me wrong.

I guess one thing I’m wondering is if the Rangers have had any contract talks regarding an extension with Alexis Lafreniere? — @mattpod02

As anticipated, everything is silent with the Rangers and General Manager Chris Drury. The Rangers are known for rarely having leaks. The term tight-lipped aptly describes the situation.

But we know Lafreniere is important to the Rangers. He is entering the second season of a two-year, $4.65 million contract ($2.325 million average annual value) he signed Aug. 24, 2023. He had 57 points (28 goals, 29 assists) in 82 games last season playing regularly on a line with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. The Rangers expect the chemistry between them to return quickly this season. If it does, it should be another big season for all three. Lafreniere is only starting to touch his potential.

I have no doubt Lafreniere will sign a new contract with the Rangers at some point. They won’t lose him. He’s a huge part of their present and future. But New York’s cap structure for next season and several beyond will be determined by goalie Igor Shesterkin‘s next contract. Shesterkin also has one year left on his current contract. He needs to be the top priority, before Lafreniere and defenseman K'Andre Miller, who also has one year left on his contract, are taken care of.

Moreover, Lafreniere should not be hasty to sign. A robust start to the season will escalate his value.

Do you see more rogue offer sheets becoming mainstream any time soon? They are interesting and cause movements and excitement, also scary too. — @gregmaddensoc

Fans enjoy offer sheets, they’re financially beneficial for the players who sign them, and they often cause division among teams and general managers. They provide quality entertainment during the offseason. Although they won’t become a common practice, they should be used more frequently due to the increasing salary cap, particularly by teams that don’t wish to completely rebuild, but need more young, NHL-ready players with potential. The St. Louis Blues are the perfect example of such a team.

The Blues were in the perfect position with their cap situation to take advantage of the Edmonton Oilers and their cap position by signing defenseman Philip Broberg to a two-year, $9.16 million contract ($4.58 million AAV) and forward Dylan Holloway to a two-year, $4.58 million contract ($2.29 million AAV).

The Oilers, with future large contracts coming for forwards Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, chose not to match, so they will receive the draft pick compensation as structured in the Collective Bargaining Agreement: a second-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft for Broberg and a third-round pick in 2025 for Holloway. Essentially, the Blues traded two draft picks for two players they can put in their lineup this season. That’s a win for St. Louis and its hopes of getting back into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The risk is substantial. Broberg and Holloway had to be signed to considerable contracts to deter the Oilers from matching. Despite being 23 and 22 years old respectively, neither has demonstrated enough value to merit their contracts from St. Louis. However, both were first-round picks (Broberg was the 8th pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Holloway the 14th in the 2020 NHL Draft), and the Blues are wagering on their potential to be realised this season, making their hefty salaries more acceptable. The Oilers, however, are not in a position to take such a gamble. This is crucial. The Blues strategically targeted a team they knew was under cap pressure and secured two restricted free agents on whom they were prepared to wager significantly. While these situations are uncommon, they do exist. More teams should capitalise on this system to boost their playoff prospects.

What’s your take on Yaroslav Askarov? Who’s your favorite team to land him? –@Jagr10190

22-year-old goaltender for the Nashville Predators, Askarov, has requested a trade as per NHL Network’s Kevin Weekes. The Predators’ general manager, Barry Trotz, stated on Monday that they expect Askarov to attend training camp in September and vie for a position. This is all deemed understandable. Here’s the explanation:

The Predators made their choice when they signed goalie Juuse Saros to an eight-year, $61.92 million contract ($7.74 million AAV) on July 1. He still has one year remaining on his current contract before the new deal kicks in, which means they’re banking on Saros to be their No. 1 goalie for the foreseeable future. Scott Wedgewood signed a two-year, $3 million contract ($1.5 million AAV) on July 1 to be Saros’ backup. It’s up to Askarov to beat out Wedgewood for that spot, but the Predators clearly are thinking that’s at least one season away, or why else would they sign Wedgewood to a two-year deal. Askarov is coming off a sensational season with Milwaukee of the American Hockey League, going 30-13-1 with a 2.39 goals-against average, .911 save percentage and six shutouts in 44 games. And in two games with the Predators he had a 1.47 GAA and .943 save percentage.

Askarov obviously believes he’s prepared for the NHL. However, should he remain with Nashville, another AHL season could be in his future, with no clear timeline for when he might have the opportunity to become a No. 1 in the NHL. This is likely the reason behind the rumored trade request.

Ultimately, I predict the Predators will trade Askarov, probably before training camp concludes. They must hope it isn’t a repeat of the New York Islanders’ trade of Roberto Luongo. Nevertheless, they should fetch a high value for him. Several teams should show interest, ranging from the Western Conference’s Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Utah Hockey Club and Vegas Golden Knights, to the Eastern Conference’s Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets.

What’s taking so darn long on the Sidney Crosby extension? — @TopesWriter

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Crosby are on the clock to avoid a potentially contentious issue. What’s causing the delay? It’s unclear. Crosby’s loyalty lies solely with the Penguins and the team, in turn, does not want to upset him or risk losing him. There’s absolutely no need for the Penguins to adopt a confrontational approach with Crosby, who has displayed no such inclination in his 19-year tenure in Pittsburgh. My prediction is that the Penguins will commence their training camp by announcing Crosby’s new contract, sparking excitement, positivity and attention. This is something they could really use. However, if Crosby arrives at camp without a fresh contract, the countdown will halt and a problem will arise.

Trevor Zegras. Trade chatter EVERYWHERE. No substantial evidence of anything actually coming together. What are you hearing? — @JonROTTKOA

Not much is happening. There could be a possibility that the Ducks are considering trading Zegras, potentially before the season starts, but this is purely conjecture right now. Ducks’ general manager, Pat Verbeek, should be working behind the scenes to assess the market interest in Zegras. The 23-year-old center has two more years on his contract before he can become a restricted free agent again.

However, it’s tough to gauge Zegras’ market value accurately considering his performance last season. He didn’t sign until October 2, causing him to miss training camp. Further, injuries, such as a broken ankle on January 9 that benched him for 31 games, disrupted his season. In the 31 games he played, he managed to score 15 points, consisting of six goals and nine assists. In contrast, Zegras scored 65 points (23 goals, 42 assists) in 81 games during the 2022-23 season and 61 points (23 goals, 38 assists) in 75 games during the 2021-22 season.

Currently, his value isn’t at its peak and it’s unclear what his exact position is in the NHL. It’s possible he could be the dynamic, playmaking center scoring a point-per-game that the Ducks anticipate. He could also be a player scoring 60 points. Or, in the worst-case scenario, he could be susceptible to injuries.

The Ducks find themselves in a challenging position, but regardless of whether it’s with Anaheim or another team, Zegras has a significant season ahead to demonstrate that there’s more to him than the apparent flair we’ve witnessed in his NHL performances.

If you had to name eight teams most likely to be the 2025 Stanley Cup champion, which eight teams would that be? No order necessary. I’d say: Edmonton, Florida, Rangers, Dallas, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Colorado, Toronto. I have Nashville, Tampa Bay, Boston, Vegas missing the cut. — @Yamothasmit

1. Edmonton Oilers
2. Florida Panthers
3. New York Rangers
4. Boston Bruins
5. Dallas Stars
6. Nashville Predators
7. Colorado Avalanche 
8. New Jersey Devils

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