AC Milan vs Liverpool: UEFA Champions League Predictions & Best Bets (9/17)

The long awaited UEFA Champions League makes its return today as the first matches of the new league phase get underway. With an expanded 36 team tournament, we are in for some thrilling matchups throughout the competition, and we have one slotted on the first day of matches. Today in Italy, AC Milan host Liverpool to begin both team’s UCL Campaign.

Now, be sure to check out our UCL preview in order to stay up to date on this tournament’s new format, debuting this season. Ultimately, instead of groups, teams will just play 8 matches, earning 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw, with the Top 24 teams advancing based on the points. It all begins today, after teams were placed into different seeding pots and fixtures were drawn, we finally get some UCL action tonight.

Today we are focusing on AC Milan as they host Liverpool. AC Milan are back in the UCL after finishing 3rd in their group last season. Being able to play Liverpool at home takes a little bit of pressure off, however it is still Liverpool. They are easily a Top 3 team in the English Premier League, and have one of the best back lines in all of European football at the moment. Let’s dive into this game and find our best bet in this match!

Check out our 2024-2025 UCL Preview!

AC Milan vs Liverpool: UCL Play Begins

Matchup Information – AC Milan vs Liverpool

• Venue & Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano, Italy)
• Date: Tuesday, September 17th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: Paramount+

Betting Odds

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Money Line

• AC Milan +278
• Draw +280
• Liverpool -103

Draw No Bet

• AC Milan +180
• Liverpool -220

Total

• Over 3 (-105)
• Under 3 (-115)

Can Milan Hang with Liverpool’s Attack?

AC Milan is a great soccer team, however, Liverpool is on a different playing field. And it’s also worth considering Liverpool just dropped an easy EPL match to Nottingham Forest. They may have been caught in a look ahead spot, but in my eyes, that just means their full focus is on the opponent at hand. Aside from their most recent loss, Liverpool is 3-0 to start the EPL season, with 3 shutout wins. They went on the road and beat Manchester United, 3-nil, so I expect little trouble traveling to Milan.

AC Milan will be forced to try and keep up offensively. When Cody Gakpo, Mo Salah, and Luis Diaz are coming at you from all sides of the field, you can’t really stop them. Liverpool has way too many options up front, they’ve scored 7 goals in 4 games so far this season, and I don’t see them having much trouble creating chances. With this in mind, I do expect Milan to be forced to play defense, abandoning their strength, which is scoring goals.

The Milan attack is led by Pulisic, as well as Tammy Abraham and Samuel Chukwueze. Both teams have multiple scoring options, and it seems like that would lead us to bet the over, correct? Wrong.

This Liverpool defense is the real deal. Despite their recent mishap last weekend, I have full confidence in them finding their groove, especially in the backline. With this being the first match of the UCL competition, I see both teams taking some time to really feel each other out since everyone is getting used to the new format. Ultimately, I think this leads to a slow paced, scoreless first half, with more chances being produced during the second half. I have so side slightly with Liverpool, simply because of their talent. While I do see Milan putting up plenty of a fight, I think Liverpool will escape from Italy with 3 points in their back pocket.

But, for betting purposes, here is where my coin is at.

AC Milan vs Liverpool Best Bets

AC Milan vs Liverpool Prediction: Liverpool Wins 1-0 (+1000)

Best Bet: Under 3 (-115) BetOnline

Once again, we are betting on a soccer under. With this being the first match of the UCL, and the first meeting between these clubs since 2022, I think they spend ample amount of time getting to know each other. Unlike in year’s past, Liverpool won’t face AC Milan again until the later rounds of the competition. Therefore, they won’t be able to make up for a bad showing in this match, leading me to believe they come out a little conservative, making sure they at least guarantee some points on the road.

Liverpool has beaten AC Milan in each of their last 5 meetings, so you ought to think the Italian side will give it there all. While they may have the firepower up top to keep up, the backline is where AC Milan will struggle. Because of this, I expect them to pull their wingers back, assisting in defending the Liverpool attack. Last year in the UCL, it took AC Milan four matches to finally put one in the back of the net. Against Virgil Van Dijk and the rest of the Liverpool defense, I don’t see them scoring at all. As for Liverpool, being on the road, I think their offense may start a bit slow, especially with the respect they have for Milan’s counter attack.

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