Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (7/11)

The Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Chicago Cubs today at Camden Yards, with both teams finding themselves in contrasting scenarios. The Cubs began the MLB season on a positive note, but have since tumbled down to the bottom of the NL Central, lagging 10 games behind the division-leading Brewers. However, things are looking up for them as they have recently secured victories in three consecutive games.

The Orioles are comfortably leading the AL East, two games ahead of the Yankees. Despite losing their last two games to the Cubs, the Orioles are in a strong position to rebound at their home ground today and increase their lead over New York. However, they face a challenge as the Cubs are deploying their ace left-handed pitcher, Justin Steele, who has the potential to seal the series sweep today.

Is he capable of guiding the Cubs to a surprise win on the road? Or will Baltimore manage to prevent a sweep with a win at home tonight?

Justin Steele Starts for the Cubs Today in Camden Yards

Matchup Information – Cubs vs Orioles

• Location & Venue: Camden Yards (Baltimore, MD)
• Date: Thursday, July 11th, 2024
• First Pitch: 6:35pm Eastern

Pitching Matchup

• Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele (1-3, 2.95 ERA)
• Baltimore Orioles: Albert Suarez (5-2, 2.48 ERA)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• Cubs +1.5 (-172)
• Orioles -1.5 (+152)

Money Line

• Cubs +124
• Orioles -135

Total

• Over 8.5 (-120)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Can Orioles Avoid the Home Sweep?

Justin Steele vs Orioles Bats

Justin Steele began the season recovering from an injury and had numerous challenging games. However, he has since regained his form. He recently celebrated his first victory of the season, pitching a complete game of 9 innings, giving up only one run on two hits and two walks. But this performance was at home. In his last two road starts, Steele conceded five runs on 13 hits over 13.1 innings, including two home runs and one walk. Despite this, his performance metrics show a slight improvement when playing away.

However, he is still up against the Baltimore hitters who have a preference for lefties.

The Orioles, as a team, have an overall batting average of .255, a .257 average at Camden Yards this year, and a .264 average when facing left-handed pitchers, a figure that places them joint 5th in the league. Their batting average was .273 in June and is currently .254 for July. With the Yankees hot on their heels, this is a crucial game for the Orioles. Adley Rutschman’s average increases significantly from .284 to .389 when facing left-handed pitchers, while Ryan Mountcastle’s rises from .272 to .313. Jordan Westburg also sees an improvement in his figures, with his average going up from .280 to .325 when playing at Camden Yards.

In essence, the splits align favorably for the Orioles, in my view. However, let’s shift our discussion to their pitcher.

Albert Suarez vs Cubs Bats

Albert Suarez is taking the mound at home for the Orioles, having delivered consistently strong performances throughout the year. Currently, Suarez boasts a 5-2 record, a sub 2.50 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, and is on a two-game winning streak. Over his last two games, he’s pitched 12 innings, conceding just two runs from seven hits and a single walk, with both runs coming from solo home runs. Despite this, since transitioning from the bullpen, the Orioles remain undefeated in games Suarez has started at Camden Yards, a streak I anticipate will continue tonight.

This year, Suarez has an impressive ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.00, achieved over 30 innings pitched at home. The Cubs maintain a steady .231 average in away games without any fluctuation, only slightly decreasing to .230 against RHP. However, their poor road record of 19-28, despite coming off two consecutive wins, leads me to favor the home team.

The Orioles have suffered two sweeps, both while playing away. Conversely, they have successfully prevented a sweep in the concluding game of a home series thrice. I believe they have the potential to replicate this feat tonight.

Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bets

Best Bet: Orioles ML (-132) BetOnline

The Orioles are leading the Yankees by two games in the AL East and have not experienced a triple loss at home this year. On four different occasions, they have recovered from two consecutive losses by winning the next game, a pattern I anticipate to repeat tonight. Suarez’s home splits are too impressive to overlook, and the Orioles have a knack for triumphing over left-handed pitchers. Although the batters and pitchers are not overly familiar with each other, Baltimore’s .786 OPS against left-handed pitchers is convincing enough for me.

I have confidence that the home team, despite their two consecutive losses, will bounce back and score some runs tonight.

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