Manchester City vs Inter Milan: UCL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/18)

We are back for matchday 2 of the UEFA Champions League and after six great matches yesterday, I’m sure we are in for quite the exciting slate today. Once again, we’ve got six matches across Europe today in the UCL, but we will be focused on the match of the day, as Inter Milan travels to England to face Manchester City.

These two teams actually met in the Champions League Title Match back in 2023, with Manchester city pulling off a 1-0 victory to claim the title. Now, this match is a completely different scenario, even though the two teams have very similar personnel from when they played less than two years ago.

Manchester City is still Manchester City. They are 4-0 to start the EPL this season, rolling over any opponent that stands in their way, and they have not been beaten at home since 2018. This team is utterly dominant, and ultimately, I do not have any hope for Inter Milan.

Despite still being one of the best clubs in Italy, Inter Milan are off to a slower start than they would hope. They have 2 shutout wins at home so far, but both they played to a draw in both road matches this year, arguably against teams that they should’ve beat. This leads me to believe they may struggle going into an environment like the Etihad, where pulling off an upset is next to impossible.

Will they be able to surprise the world today? Or will Manchester City start this competition with an expected 3 points?

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Manchester City vs Inter Milan: Rematch of the 2023 UCL Final

Matchup Information – Manchester City vs Inter Milan

• Venue & Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
• Date: Wednesday, September 18th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: Paramount+

Betting Odds

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Money Line

• Manchester City -195
• Draw +345
• Inter Milan +565

Spread

• Manchester City -1 (-115)
• Inter Milan +1 (-105)

Total

• Over 3 (+118)
• Under 3 (-143)

Can Inter Hold Off Manchester City Onslaught?

Inter Milan knows they have a tough task ahead. Beating Manchester City at home is nearly impossible, and doing so during Champions League play seems extremely daunting. I think Inter Milan’s only hope is trying to play to a nil-nil draw, and I think they do that by parking the back line, playing extremely conservative soccer, and focus on disrupting the Manchester City offense. Inter Milan tied Chelsea 1-1 in England in a club friendly prior to the start of the season, so they do have some recent experience going to England and playing a top team, but no one matches the caliber of Manchester City right now.

As I said, they are 4-0 in EPL play, scoring 2+ goals in every game, and outscoring opponents 11-3 in the process. While they have allowed goals at home to both Ipswich and Brentford, I think they come with a different kind of defensive focus today in the Champions League. Despite not having groups anymore, goal differential could certainly come into play at the end of the league phase, therefore, teams will not be holding back offensively. However, if anyone can slow down Manchester City, its’ Inter Milan’s back line.

Inter Milan’s Defense

Inter Milan’s backline changes shape from match to match, but the core remains the same. Stefan de Vrij leads the defense, accompanied by Ben Pavard, with Denzel Dumfries free to run the sideline as a right wing back. Yann Sommer is in goal again after posting 19 clean sheets last season, while Lautaro Martinez leads the attack after a very successful International summer with Argentina. It’s no secret that Inter Milan does have the bodies to play alongside Manchester City, but whether or not they have the personnel to actually beat them is a different matter.

While I do lean with Manchester City to get the job done, I cannot find a good way to back them with the current lines. So instead, I’ll be taking a stab at the total in this matchup.

Manchester City vs Inter Milan Best Bets

Manchester City vs Inter Milan Prediction: Manchester City Wins 2-0 (+750)

Best Bet: Man City/Inter Under 3 (-143) BetOnline

While I also recommend betting Manchester City to Win to Nil at (+175), I’ll just bet on defense. Manchester City has all the offensive firepower in the world, but Inter Milan’s back line is prepared to make a stand. Even when these teams played in the UCL Final in 2023, we saw a slow paced, rather boring match. Manchester City was only able to produce 7 total shots, with just 4 of them on target along with 2 corner kicks. Sure, they gained over 55% of possession, however Inter Milan was the one doing the attacking. With over 14 attempts and 6 of them on target, Inter Milan simple couldn’t capitalize on their 4 corner kicks, but certainly had more opportunities than Manchester City.

Now being on the road, Inter Milan’s defensive focus will have to be as high as possible in order to slow down the home team. Manchester City will dominate this game, but I do not see the scoring getting out of hand. I think Inter Milan is able to keep it relatively close. Although it is juicy, I have no problem paying the juiceman here. Typically all soccer bets for me are just 0.5u, but I am laying 1u flat on this bet. I have very confident that this game doesn’t see more than 2 goals.

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