MLB Must Bet Props: Champagne Theory | September 25, 2024
Happy Wednesday!
Must-Bet Monday Props: Yesterday’s picks swept, but the rest of my card didn’t go as planned. Today is a fresh start, and we’re all in on fading the teams that celebrated with champagne last night. After the festivities, it’s time to capitalize on any potential hangovers and make some smart bets. Let’s dive in and take advantage of the post-celebration effects!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s write up went 2-0.
Yankees (-0.5) F5 (+100)
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The Stank:
I usually don’t bet on my favorite team, but sometimes you have to go with your theory. After the Orioles celebrated their playoff berth last night, they caught my attention as a team to fade the next day. For those who don’t know, the Champagne Theory suggests that you should fade a team after they celebrate making the playoffs or clinching their division—essentially, if it’s not the World Series and they’re popping champagne, they’re likely to be a bit sluggish in their next game.
Champagne Theory Record: 4-1-1 (+3.74 Units)
get October Ready & match our pookie
the team store is open until 6 p.m. today pic.twitter.com/rKaO2GLBSG
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) September 25, 2024
Today, Baltimore has Zach Eflin on the mound, who has a 3.53 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. However, his ERA rises to 4.16 when he pitches on the road. This will be the fourth time the Yankees have faced him this season, and they know him well from his time in Tampa Bay. In their last matchup, Eflin allowed five runs on seven hits over five innings.
With the Yankees’ magic number sitting at “2,” they’re eager to clinch the AL East Division. They’ll need to catch the Orioles off guard tonight after Baltimore’s celebratory playoff berth—something that 40% of the league gets to experience.
Mariners (-0.5) F5 (+112)
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The Stank:
Last night, after clinching the AL West Division, the Houston Astros celebrated like everyone else—popping bottles and pouring champagne on each other in pure joy over a successful regular season. Some might find it corny (like me), while others may argue it’s well-deserved.
Ours. #Relentless x @stellarbanktx pic.twitter.com/41pDA7H2rO
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 25, 2024
Regardless, we’re all in on the Mariners today. Their offense features four elite hitters, no poorly rated players, and seven with above-average strikeout rates. We know Seattle struggles with discipline at the plate, and today they face Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. This will be Kikuchi’s 31st start of the season, and he’s allowed teams to score over 2.5 runs in 15 of those games. His day-game ERA is notably higher at 5.83 compared to his night ERA.
With the Mariners 2.5 games out of the third AL playoff spot, they need these wins to stay in contention. If they can capitalize on a Houston team that was out celebrating last night, they could pull off an upset today.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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