MLB Must Bet Props: First Five Innings | August 21, 2024
Happy Hump Day!
Tonight’s games present some exciting opportunities that are simply irresistible. Prepare to capitalize on a few high-value moves that could potentially make your evening!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-2 (-1.0).
New day. New Vibes
Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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The Stank:
A new day brings another chance to place a bet on the Diamondbacks’ team total over for the first five innings. Yesterday, we benefitted from this proposition when Corbin Carroll hit a solo home run in the fifth, cashing for us.
AGAINST THE MARLINS?!?
Dbacks F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) 2U ✅ pic.twitter.com/7hLLkb4IuV
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 20, 2024
Today’s Arizona-Miami Marlins game could be a better matchup for Arizona as they’re up against Miami’s starter, Roddery Munoz. As you might know from my previous notes, we prefer to bet against Munoz. The 24-year-old right-hander has a 5.88 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has also allowed opposing teams to score more than 2.5 runs in over half of his starts this season, precisely nine out of 16 games.
Arizona has the highest scoring offense in the majors, with an average of just below three runs per game. Their performance improves even more at home, where they average 3.24 runs per game.
Arizona also has six elite-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s default ratings, and in the current season’s ratings, they have eight. The entire team averages an elite rating, facing a pitcher with the worst matchup rating in both default and current season ratings.
This is a no-brainer for me. The Marlins are the second-worst team in the MLB for allowing runs during the first five innings, only marginally better than the Colorado Rockies by a mere decimal point.
Give me the Snakes over 2.5.
Royals (-0.5) First Five (-125)
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The Stank:
Johnny Cueto, the very same 38-year-old that hasn’t started since last season, is unbelievably the starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Yes, that Johnny Cueto who ended the previous season with a 1-4 record, a 6.02 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. He’s clearly beyond his prime and is likely to be hit hard tonight. Prepare for the shimmy shimmy pitch – here comes Johnny Cueto.
Currently, the Royals lack any top-rated batters, a scenario I typically steer clear of. But due to my principles, I must make this move. Will others notice Cueto on the pitch and follow suit? The chances are high. However, I’m not concerned about others’ wagers.
Cueto ranks third from the bottom in today’s pitcher rating. Nonetheless, Kansas City still boasts two hitters with “excellent” ratings, although Bobby Witt Jr is not among them. Nevertheless, I believe Witt’s winning streak will persist tonight.
The Angels rank third in terms of the most runs allowed in the first five innings, with an average of 2.89 runs surrendered. Kansas City, on the other hand, has an average performance in scoring during the first five innings. However, when playing at home, they manage to score 2.69 runs.
Michael Lorenzen is pitching for the Royals today. Despite not having the best match-up rating, I’m not overly worried about the Angels’ offense. They only average 2.27 runs per game during the first five innings, and have a team batting average of .200 against Lorenzen across 55 plate appearances.
Given the cost and the fact that we’re betting against a guy who’s on the brink of retirement, this is a sensible move tonight.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
I always rely on Batters-Box.com for finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets. While it may not be the ultimate source, it’s an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagers. Last season, I profited 98 units using Batters-Box.com. Skeptical? You can verify it on my Action profile, @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional stats that assist me in determining whether a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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