MLB Must Bet Props: Mets vs Braves Game 1 | September 30, 2024
Happy Monday!
The Must Bet Props are back!
With playoff implications in this doubleheader, both the Mets and Braves need a win—if one sweeps today, the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a playoff spot. Hungry teams call for hungry player props, so let’s dive into Game One for the best value!
With Arizona and NY winning and Atlanta losing, the full doubleheader between Mets and Braves is happening Monday.
Both games will be on ESPN2. The first starts at 1:10 p.m. ET.
If either team sweeps, that team and Arizona is in.
With a split, the Mets and Braves are both in.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 29, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-0
Braves (-0.5) F5 Spread (-105)
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Ozuna hushing the doubters
As an organization, you don’t trade for players at the deadline to push for a playoff spot without putting up a fight. The Braves brought in Luke Jackson and former World Series hero Jorge Soler, and they need this win. The Mets do too, but for the Braves, it’s all or nothing.
In Game One, Spencer Schwellenbach takes the mound for Atlanta and has had a strong September, sporting a 2.73 ERA with 12 runs allowed over five starts—half of those came in one outing against the Blue Jays. Excluding that game, he’s given up just six runs on 17 hits in 24.2 innings across four starts, making him a key asset for the Braves. Among the four pitchers starting today, he has the highest rating on Batters-Box.com.
possible outcomes of the braves mets double header tomorrow pic.twitter.com/FiipoHgkXr
— Jay Cuda (@JayCuda) September 30, 2024
He will be facing a Mets lineup with no elite-rated hitters, a team that strikes out more than average and hits ground balls at a higher rate. This is the second matchup between Schwellenbach and the Mets in under a week, and last Tuesday, they managed just one run against him—a solo home run—in seven innings.
On the other side, Tylor Megill starts for the Mets, holding the lowest rating of the four pitchers. The last time he faced the Braves, on July 27, they scored four runs on five hits over six innings. Here’s hoping they can do the same today.
I see this as a great spot for the Braves in Game One. If they win, they’re in—let’s get it done. With the better matchup and a hungrier team, the Mets were just swept in Milwaukee and now have to travel to Atlanta for a playoff shot they don’t deserve.
I’m taking Atlanta in the first five!
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
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When the lights shine brightest, your stars step up—and that’s why we’re backing Braves first baseman Matt Olson today, the top hitter on Batters-Box.com. With an elite rating, Olson gets at least one hit 65.32% of the time and goes over 1.5 total bases 40.32% of the time. While those stats aren’t jaw-dropping, there’s more to like: in his last ten games, he’s batting .394 with an OPS of 1.292, totaling 13 hits and four home runs, and he’s gone over this prop in six of those games.
He will be facing Mets starter Tylor Megill, whom he knows well; in 13 plate appearances, Olson is batting .214 with three hits and a home run against him. Megill has allowed 36.98% hard contact this season and his pitches generally rank below league average, relying mostly on a fastball that’s slightly above average. So far this season, Olson is batting .255 with an OPS of .816 and a wRC+ of 134 against fastballs.
The value here is too good to ignore. In a must-win game for the playoffs, this is the kind of opportunity you dream about.
Sprinkle of the day
- Matt Olson Home Run (+500)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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