MLB Must Bet Props: Strictly Twins | September 22, 2024
Happy Sunday!
It’s NFL Sunday, but with just one week left in the MLB regular season, the stakes are higher than ever. Teams are fighting for crucial victories to secure their playoff spots, and the excitement is palpable. We’re hungry for wins! Let’s dive into the Sunday slate!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 0-1-1.
SATURDAY RECAP
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ https://t.co/MtjqCU4g6O pic.twitter.com/K2VnKMaVSc— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 22, 2024
Twins F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-125)
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Twins outfielder Matt Wallner, rounding third after hitting a nuke missile
The Stank:
This is purely a value play. The Minnesota Twins enter today with the highest average hitter matchup rating according to Batters-Box.com’s season ratings. They feature six elite-rated hitters, the highest matchup ISO, and the third-highest average hard contact rating. While seven of their hitters are above league average in strikeout percentage, they’ll be facing Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta.
Pivetta, 31, has the fourth-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. With a 4.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, he has allowed teams to score over 1.5 runs in 17 of his 25 outings.
Minnesota tends to perform well at home, averaging 2.33 runs per game in the first five innings. With only half a game separating them from the Tigers in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot, this is a prime opportunity for the Twins’ bats to get going early and often.
Matt Wallner 1+ Hit (-125)
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The Stank:
I’m back to sweating out one of my favorite props—Twins outfielder Matt Wallner. He enters today with the fifth-best matchup rating, according to Batters-Box.com. After a breakout game on Friday, Wallner appears to be finding his rhythm again, going 2-for-6 with an RBI.
Over his last ten games, Wallner is batting .263 with ten hits and two home runs. However, in his last five games, he’s hitting an impressive .412 with a .944 OPS. When given an elite rating this season, Wallner records a hit 81.25% of the time, goes over 1.5 total bases 59.38% of the time, and hits a home run 28.13% of the time.
I’m laddering his props—hit, 2+ total bases, and home run. The value is there, and he’s in a great matchup against Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta. The Twins need to stay hungry to remain in the playoff hunt.
Give me everything Matt Wallner!
Sprinkle of the Day
- Matt Wallner HR (+430)
- Matt Wallner 2+ Bases (+155)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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