MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals, Bases & Home Runs | September 10, 2024
Happy Tuesday!
None of these hit
Wow. That kinda hurts https://t.co/HKNWCrDiGL
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) September 10, 2024
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
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Write Up Transparency
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Monday’s write up 0-3. It has been a rough two days I am 1-11-1 since Sunday.
Brewers F5 Team Total Over 2.5
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Brewers rising star, Jackson Chourio pointing to dugout
The Stank:
It has not been confirmed yet whether Hayden Birdsong will start for the Giants, but Rotowire lists him as the probable starter. If he does take the mound, here’s the play:
Brewers First Five Innings Team Total Over
As of now, sportsbooks haven’t posted this prop, but when they do, I’ll be ready to bet on it. The Brewers feature five elite-rated hitters in default ratings and six in current season ratings on Batters-Box.com. They rank third in baseball for first five innings scoring, averaging 2.88 runs, and 2.85 runs on the road.
Birdsong has been a dream matchup for opposing hitters, allowing the highest hard contact percentage among today’s starters at 48.35%. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. The 23-year-old particularly struggles against right-handed hitters, who are batting .253 with an OPS of .902 against him. With Milwaukee’s lineup heavily right-handed, this could be a great spot for the Brewers to score early and often.
Keep an eye on the prop markets. If Birdsong is confirmed as the Giants’ starter, I’m betting on the Brewers’ first five innings team total to go over. Rotowire’s projections are usually accurate, but be sure to wait for the official announcement before placing your bet.
Matt Wallner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
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The Stank:
He didn’t come through for us yesterday when he was only elite-rated on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. But today’s a different story. The Twins outfielder now holds an elite rating in both timeframes. His trends are impressive: he’s gone over 1.5 bases 57.14% of the time in 28 elite-rated games this season and hits a home run 25% of the time.
Wallner faces Angels starter Griffin Canning, who has the third-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com and the 7th highest hard contact percentage among today’s starters at 37.26%. Left-handed hitters are batting .269 with an OPS of .813 against Canning this season. On the road, Canning has struggled, with a 5.24 ERA and an average of 3.4 runs allowed per start.
Canning relies on four pitches, but only his changeup is above league average in value. Wallner hits .333 against changeups, with an OPS of 1.207 and a wRC+ of 239. This looks like an ideal matchup for Wallner, especially after two straight hitless games.
Sprinkle of the day:
- Matt Wallner Home Run (+320)
- Jackson Chourio Home run (+830)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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