MLB Must Bet Props: Team Totals & First Five Spreads | September 8, 2024
Happy Sunday!
Sure, NFL football is on all day, but with only a few weeks left in the regular baseball season, I’ve still managed to find some intriguing props for us to enjoy. Let’s dive in.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Sunday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Friday’s write up 3-0. Phillies F5 team total cashed. Yordan Alvarez Bases and home run cashed.
Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+124)
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Phillies star Bryce Harper swinging
The Stank:
On Friday, I mentioned that the Marlins were scheduled to start 26-year-old Edward Cabrera, but he didn’t take the mound. Fortunately for us, he will be starting today. As we know, he’s been struggling this season.
Cabrera has a poor rating on Batters-Box.com’s current season ratings. He had issues all year, with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed teams to score over 2.5 runs in eight of his 16 starts and has been particularly ineffective on the road, where his ERA climbs to 6.69 and he gives up an average of 3.37 runs.
The Phillies come into this game with the highest-rated offense on Batters-Box.com, boasting four elite-rated hitters. Their lineup is primed for a strong performance against a team that allows the most runs in the first five innings.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks seventh in runs per first five innings, averaging 2.75 runs per game. At home, they average 3.08 runs, while the Marlins allow 3.06 runs in the same timeframe. This sets up a great opportunity for the Phillies to capitalize and score early and often.
At plus money? I always prefer not having to pay the juice on a team total prop. I’m all in on the Phillies!
Brewers (-0.5) First Five Spread (-160)
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The Stank:
There’s nothing better than waking up on a Sunday morning and betting against the worst road team in baseball.
The Colorado Rockies are the lowest-scoring team in the first five innings on the road, averaging just 1.79 runs. Today, they face Brewers starter Freddie Peralta, who ranks fifth in pitcher ratings on Batters-Box.com. Colorado’s lineup lacks both elite and particularly poor-rated hitters, but nine of their batters strike out more frequently than average, which could be problematic against Peralta.
Peralta has the highest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage for the day at 36.16%. Considering this, betting on his strikeouts could be a good move. With a high average hitter matchup strikeout percentage, Peralta records at least seven strikeouts 60.87% of the time, based on a sample of 23 elite-rated matchups.
The Brewers’ offense boasts three elite-rated hitters, giving them the second-highest average hitter rating of the day. They will be up against Kyle Freeland, who has had a terrible season with a 5.30 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. His performance is even worse on the road, with a 6.75 ERA and an average of 3.88 runs allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Brewers have the third-best first five innings scoring offense in baseball, averaging 2.94 runs per game on the road.
Given these factors, backing the Brewers on the first five innings spread seems like a solid choice, rather than forcing a first five team total bet. Despite a sluggish performance yesterday, the Brewers should have a much better game today against Freeland.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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