#20 Oklahoma State vs #23 Kansas State: NCAA Football Odds & Best Bets (9/28)

We are blessed with a Top 25 Showdown this Saturday in the Big 12, as the Kansas State Wildcats host the Oklahoma State Cowboys at noon eastern in Manhattan. Both of these teams lost their conference opener last weekend, and are looking to bounce back on Saturday. Now, both teams started hot out, and sit at 3-1 on the season, but unfortunately for one of these squads, they will be adding a second loss to their record.

Oklahoma State was tested against Arkansas at home, but escaped in double OT. Last weekend in Stillwater, they lost to a Cam Rising-less Utah Utes team, 22-19 to open Big 12 play. Alan Bowman was benched for a portion of that game, but eventually almost led the comeback. How will they do in their first conference matchup on the road?

Kansas State is coming off easily their worst performance of the season. They handled UT Martin and Arizona at home, and narrowly beat Tulane on the road to start the year. However, they forgot how to play football last weekend, losing to BYU in Utah, 38-9. Avery Johnson threw 2 picks and the offense couldn’t find the end zone at all. They out-gained BYU by over 120 yards, but touchdowns by the defense and special teams proved to be the difference maker.

Back at home, can the Wildcats take down Oklahoma State? Or will the Cowboys hand Kansas State their first home loss of the season?

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Oklahoma State vs Kansas State: Big 12 Teams in Bounce Back Spots

Matchup Information – Oklahoma State vs Kansas State

• Venue & Location: Bill Snyder Stadium (Manhattan, KS)
• Date: Saturday, September 28th, 2024
• Kick Off: 12:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Oklahoma State +5 (-105)
• Kansas State -5 (-115)

Money Line

• Oklahoma State +173
• Kansas State -198

Total

• Over 55.5 (-110)
• Under 55.5 (-110)

Cowboys Face Wildcats in Big 12 Play

We always knew the Big 12 was going to beat up on each other. The winner of this conference will likely have 2, maybe even 3, losses on their record, so there’s no need to count either of these teams out quite yet. While Oklahoma State would’ve liked to beat Utah at home, they are the #10 team in the nation for a reason. As for the Wildcats, they may have been looking ahead a bit and underestimated the Cougars of BYU. Nevertheless, both teams look to bounce back in this one.

The Utes defense held Ollie Gordon III to just 42 yards on 11 carries. Like we expected, they stacked the box and forced the Cowboys to use Bowman’s arm to beat them. I expect a very similar game plan from the Wildcats defense. They are allowing just 99 rushing yards per game, and just 56 at home. Yes, most teams have been playing from behind and therefore passing the ball, but regardless, the front 7 of Kansas State is showing up so far this season. This is translating to just 3.6 yards per attempt to opponents, and so far this season Ollie Gordon has looked at least a little human.

Ollie Gordon III This Season

He has 258 rushing yards this season in 4 contests, staying under 50 yards in his last 3 games. He’s added 60 yards in the passing attack, but is running for just 3.5 yards per carry, down from 6.1 last year and 5.3 the season before. Point being, it’s looked like a down year so far for Gordon, and against this Kansas State rushing D, I think he could get stuffed again. Oklahoma State had to throw the ball more against Utah, so Gordon saw just 11 carries, but it was never enough for him to find a rhythm. He should leave Manhattan still searching for it, as I don’t see him having a good game.

Bye Week Looming for Wildcats

What’s huge for me, is Kansas State is going into a bye week. They got their rear end kicked by BYU, a team they were supposed to beat by at least a touchdown. They’ll have plenty of time to rest after this win, so I expect Kleiman to have his boys fired up and ready to go, especially defensively. As far as their offense goes, Johnson struggled in the passing game, but they still found success on the ground. The Wildcats have eclipsed 200+ rushing yards in every game so far this season, and the Cowboys front 7 could have their work cutout for them.

Oklahoma State’s rushing defense allows over 4.5 yards per carry and 199 yards per game. At home, I see the Wildcats doing whatever they please on the ground against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State allowed 250 rushing yards to Utah and 232 to Arkansas, their two closest contests. If Kansas State controls the line on both sides of the ball, which they are more than capable of, I see them having an easy day at home.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Kansas State Wildcats Best Bets

Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Prediction: Kansas State Wins & Covers, Under 55.5

Best Bets: Oklahoma State TT Under 24.5 (-115) Bovada

While both these teams have the capability to score in bunches, they are very rush heavy offenses. We are fading Oklahoma State’s offense for the 2nd straight week. With all due respect to Alan Bowman (if there is any), this Cowboy’s offense is nothing without the run. If Ollie Gordon III isn’t gaining chunk yardage, the entire team looks stagnant and out of place. This Kansas State Wildcat’s defense is more than capable of disrupting this offense at home and stopping the run.

This total is moving down, opening at 58.5 and sitting at 55.5 currently. Vegas clearly has a feeling that there is something wrong with the Cowboys offense. Facing a tenacious defense on the road will be a tall task for Oklahoma State, and I don’t think they have it in them. The Wildcats are allowing just 6.5 points per opponent at home this year, having allowed a TD to Arizona and two field goals to UT Martin. I don’t think the Cowboys will be a team that finds the end zone more than a couple times in this matchup, and I trust Kansa State’s defense to stay solid at home. Despite the poor performance against BYU, the problems they had were fixable.

If Avery takes care of the ball and the special teams come to play like we expect out of Special Teams U, then the Wildcats shouldn’t have an issue holding Oklahoma State under this number.

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